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Russia is far from its invasion of Ukraine and wants China more than ever. But China, facing a Covid crisis, is in a position to threaten sanctions.
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By David Pierson and Anton Troianovski
When China’s most sensible leader, Xi Jinping, and Russian President Vladimir V. Putin declared a “limitless” partnership 10 months ago, the pair projected a force in direct defiance to the United States and the West.
When the two leaders met again in Friday’s video, they found themselves in a weak position, burdened by geopolitical and economic threats to their casual authoritarian alliance. The two now have little room to maneuver, which makes the appointment even more important, but also much more complicated.
Since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February, Putin has been isolated and heavily dependent on China to achieve a semblance of diplomatic and monetary stability. It killed thousands of civilians and left Russia’s economy vulnerable.
This month, Xi saw his much-vaunted strategy against the coronavirus pandemic hit rock bottom and covid cases explode, tarnishing the symbol he must offer the world as the leader of a great political system. With the existing crisis, he cannot weigh completely behind Putin and threaten sanctions, nor abandon him and threaten to waste a key geopolitical best friend to counter the West.
They revealed little instability in their scenario on Friday, signaling in public statements a larger bilateral industry and the development of military cooperation. In a clear nod to the tensions, Xi declared the “complicated and ever-changing foreign scenario” but said China was willing to “strategic collaboration” with Russia, according to a transcript by Mr Xi published through state media.
“As long as the two have the United States as a common threat, the convergence of their interests will overcome divergence,” said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, a Washington-based think tank.
Putin used the call Friday to reaffirm Russia’s ties with China, calling them “a style of wonderful cooperation of force in the twenty-first century,” according to a Kremlin reading. He invited Xi to Moscow in the spring and advised that the two countries can succeed together. on the “unfavourable external situation”.
“We have the same perspectives on the causes, course and logic of the ongoing transformation of the global geopolitical landscape, in the face of unprecedented pressures and provocations from the West,” Putin said.
Russia sees China as its ultimate vital wife in its existential confrontation with the West. Xi’s every word is amplified as evidence that Putin is far from the only one pitting Europe and the United States against each other.
A column published Thursday by Russian state news firm RIA Novosti showed how the Kremlin was praising the partnership as it sought to lower expectations about what China would provide. Without offering evidence, the article claimed that China was racing to help Russia circumvent sanctions. below “not as temporarily or only as Russia would like,” according to the article, “but what issues is the procedure itself. “
In a sign of growing dependence on Moscow, China accounted for more than a quarter of Russia’s total imports in the first nine months of this year, up from less than 15 percent in the first nine months of last year, according to lawmaker Elina Ribakova. Among the new car brands still sold on the Russian market, foreign ones, 11 of them, are Chinese, Russian media reported this month.
As Europe strives to wean itself off Russian fossil fuels, China has a key customer. Three times this month, Russian electricity giant Gazprom announced it had damaged its record for single-day fuel deliveries to China.
On Friday, the two leaders pledged to deepen ties. Xi called on China and Russia to “support each other on issues involving fundamental interests,” while Xi called on China and Russia to “support each other on issues involving fundamental interests,” while Xi called on China and Russia to “lean on issues related to fundamental interests,” while Xi called on the other to “support others on issues related to fundamental interests,” while Xi called for problems related to fundamental interests. Putin aimed to “strengthen cooperation between Russia and China. “cash. “
“Military and military-technical cooperation occupies a special position in our relations, in our ties,” Mr. Putin. “This facilitates the security of our countries and supports stability in key regions. “
Because China is reluctant to violate sanctions, Western officials say Russia turned to two other friendly countries, Iran and North Korea, for emergency deals to fill its lack of weapons and ammunition.
But China’s partnership is vital to Moscow’s broader symbolism that helps lead an anti-Western front, a key propaganda trope for M. Putin, who opposes a Western “billion gold” that supposedly seeks to dominate and exploit the rest of the world. .
“The West is trying to put all its pressure on Beijing and the leader of the People’s Republic of China personally, it is not easy for them to distance themselves from Moscow and Putin,” Russia’s flagship weekly “Vesti Nedeli” said on Sunday. The position does not change. “
Their propaganda about Ukraine aligns, ridiculing the US. The U. S. government is aiming for the U. S. for pushing Russia into war and aiming for NATO’s stronger stance.
“The United States is doing everything imaginable to inspire Ukraine so that it can continue its confrontation with Russia,” China’s Global Times wrote in a recent commentary. its ethical position in the foreign community. “
Chinese academics also point out that most countries in the world have not agreed to sign sanctions against Russia and question the idea that Moscow is beyond the West and its allies.
“The United States and the European Union constitute the world,” said Xu Poling, a Russian expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
China comes despite the headaches that the invasion has created for M. Xi. Beijing had strengthened its economic ties with its Western allies, but the war brought Europe closer to U. S. efforts to undermine China. The invasion also drew more attention to China’s threats to invade the self-governing island of Taiwan. And the disruption of the European economy due to high energy costs has rattled one of China’s largest export markets.
There are signs that Mr. Xi’s war-facing is growing. At an assembly in Beijing last week, he expressed hope to Dmitry A. Medvedev, Putin’s close best friend and former Russian president, said “all parties involved will exercise rational restraint. “Xi claimed the Chinese leader’s “questions” and “concerns” at a Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Uzbekistan in September, when the two leaders last met.
Western leaders have suggested Xi do more to convince Putin to avoid war. But the Chinese leader told European officials they overestimated the role he could play as a mediator, according to two officials familiar with the discussions. The officials added that the Chinese and Russian leaders maintain a strong non-public relationship, Xi said. he trusted Putin.
By the way, Xi cannot abandon Xi. Putin or watch the Russian leader’s ambitions collapse in Ukraine, analysts say. That would particularly weaken a key geopolitical best friend and leave China competing alone with the United States at a time when the Chinese leader faces developing internal and external challenges.
Chief among them is the spiraling Covid outbreak that threatens chaos in a country where many other people have already reached the limit during years of lockdown, quarantine and economic stagnation. The crisis, which unfolds every day in hospitals and funeral homes across the country, has undermined the way the ruling Chinese Communist Party has described Hab’s skillful handling of the pandemic. Xi, especially in the way he boasted of a low death toll compared to the West.
Xi is also affected by rising tension in the United States. Few have had more consequences than the sweeping restrictions imposed in early October on semiconductor generation exports to China, which may set back the country’s high-tech industries for several years.
“Xi remains deeply committed to Putin’s war, as China has much to gain geopolitically from a Russian victory and potentially even more to lose from a Russian defeat,” said Craig Singleton, senior fellow on China at the Nonpartisan Foundation for Defense of Democracies. In other words, Xi and Putin’s marriage of convenience will continue, not despite Russia’s setbacks on the battlefield, but thanks to them. “
Xi may also be emboldened because he still has to pay a prohibitive tariff for his move for Russia. Far from being diplomatically isolated, Xi has spent the past three months reconnecting with world leaders, many of whom aspired to meet face-to-face. with the leader of the second largest economy in the world.
China noted that its relations with the United States stabilized to some extent after Xi met with President Biden at the Group of 20 summit in Bali, Indonesia. And in a move Friday that may signal Beijing is paying more attention to its relations with Washington, China’s ambassador to the United States, Qin Gang named the country’s new foreign minister.
“A new show of solidarity between China and Russia could force Western countries to reluctantly reconsider their willingness to exert joint pressure on China to curb its relationship with Russia,” he said. Singleton.
Matina Stevis-Gridneff, Keith Bradsher and Ivan Nechepurenko contributed to the report. Olivia Wang contributed to the research.
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