A new year-end wave of COVID-19 appears to be occurring. But this year, it appears this factor is getting much less attention than the COVID-19 surges in previous years. This has helped earn this new wave the nickname: the “silent” wave of COVID-19. But that doesn’t mean you just stay in silent mode and lull yourself into a false sense of security. Failure to take proper precautions can put you at risk of contracting COVID, whether in the short or long term.
It shouldn’t be too unexpected for colder, drier weather to cause a buildup this time of year, as it has every year since 2020. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 continues to do what it does so well: help it continue to mutate and mutating and mutating, giving rise to more and more variations. The XEC variant of SARS-CoV-2 is now quietly leading the charge, because viruses don’t talk. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated that the XEC variant accounted for 45% of SARS-CoV-2 infections from December 8 to 21. In second position, KP. 3. 1. 1 with 24%, followed by LP. 8. 1 with 8%. None of the other descendants of FLiRT’s circle of relatives made up more than 5% of the group.
The first indication that a COVID wave is waning right now comes from a one-time factor: wastewater surveillance, which necessarily involves testing excrement-filled wastewater samples for the virus. A US CDC map shows the period from December 8 to 14, SARS-CoV-2 wastewater viral activity in wastewater samples was measured as “high” or “very high” in 21 states. That’s after many states remained in moderate to low degrees for much of the fall.
While wastewater monitoring is far from being completely wasteful, the accuracy of wastewater monitoring depends on where and how samples are occasionally taken. The fact that the measured activity of SARS-CoV-2 is low does not mean that the virus is not spreading substantially within the human population. There can be a long delay between infection of other people and detection of the virus in wastewater. Additionally, it’s never a good idea to rely on just one metric for anything. That’s why dating profiles involve more than just size.
Today, it is much more complicated to determine when and where a COVID surge occurs. If you take a look at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s COVID Knowledge Tracker, the first thing you’ll find are four metrics. The first is the reported check positivity rate of 5. 6% for the week ending December 14, 2024, which is up from 5. 1% last week. This is no longer as accurate as it might have been in 2020, when many checks were being carried out and reported. Also, you’ll notice that it’s been two weeks since this week, so this price isn’t exactly up to date.
The 3 indexed measures are:
Also, those 3 measurements are a bit like oversized shoulder pads, skinny jeans, and oversized logo clothing, kind of replaced as number one measurements. The nature of COVID has changed since the early days of the pandemic. As more people become increasingly exposed to the Spike protein through vaccination and infection, other people’s immune systems are less “naïve” to the virus and instead know how to better control SARS-CoV- 2. This has likely contributed to the more severe acute consequences of COVID-19 becoming less likely.
This is not to say that SARS-CoV-2 no longer represents a significant threat. SARS-CoV-2 infection continues to pose the threat of long Covid. The exact threat is unknown because Covid was not aggressively tracked for a long time. In fact, the existing number of long Covid cases is unknown, as the United States has never developed an effective surveillance formula for long Covid.
You’ve probably heard the term silent but deadly as well. Just because the death threat from COVID-19 is lower now than it was in the early years of the pandemic doesn’t mean it can’t not happen. This is especially true if your immune formula is weaker.
Of course, not talking about COVID-19 doesn’t mean that it has gone away. The trouble, though, is many people are acting as if COVID has gone the way of the sweater vest and not taking enough precautions, you know all those things the pandemic was supposed to teach us. These include:
Once again, the 2024 edition of the year-end wave of COVID-19 would likely not capture the attention of political leaders. But, as history has shown, just because political leaders don’t communicate about an issue doesn’t mean it isn’t a problem.
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