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(Bloomberg’s opinion) – Europe has been praised for controlling the pandemic as it reopens its economy. Unlike the United States, a mixture of guilty individual behavior and wise public policies has delayed the resurgence of the new coronavirus.
However, economies and citizens can only settle for much of the closures and excessive social distances. From Germany to Greece, a build-up in new cases threatens to become a second, more serious wave of Covid-19. Some of this is inevitable when outlets and businesses reopen, and the more youthful profile of new users inflate means that the most recent cases have been less severe. But Europe cannot allow the pandemic to overwhelm its hospitals, especially in autumn and winter, when more life is forced into.
We want to think more seriously about the right activities. In some countries, teenagers and other young people in their twenties sit on the dance floors of reopened nightclubs, perhaps moving from one vacation spot to another. For a continent that has closed its schools, this is a priority.
Europe does not have to deal with a circular moment of complete draconian blockades, which would be disastrous for the economy. However, countries will need to redouble their efforts to re-contain infections, insisting on the application of social estrangement regulations and restricting giant concentrations.
After a benign start to the summer, several European states have suffered multiple epidemics. In Germany, the government has accounted for more than 1,000 new instances in each of the last 3 days. France, Spain and the Netherlands are experiencing a strong buildup of new infections. Even countries that have treated the spring epidemic well, such as Greece, are wary of a momentary wave.
At the moment, the scenario is very different from March, April and May. The number of deaths daily has dropped dramatically and hospitals are no longer under pressure. Many of those who tested positive have few or no symptoms, a sign that the government is closer to building the “real” number of cases. National fitness facilities are actively searching for outbreaks and doctors have more on treating patients.
However, Europe is aware of the danger of this fatal virus. If the number of instances continues to increase, it will be more complicated to contain it. Covid-19 can also resume widespread flow among the most vulnerable sectors of the population, such as the elderly. Most other people have not developed antibodies to fight SARS-CoV-2. Serological studies in the UK and Spain estimate the ratio of 5% to 6% (although some studies show that other people would possibly have developed another immunity bureaucracy).
Then there’s the charge of applying a new padlock. In the first part of 2020, European economies fell considerably. The gross domestic product of Spain and Britain has fallen by more than 20% compared to the end of 2019. Governments have taken ordinary steps, adding licensing plans, to keep their savings afloat, but they are incredibly expensive. A new circular of closures would damage public morals and could cause long-term mental damage.
European governments are continuing their efforts to involve outbreaks as soon as they occur. This requires localized “smart” locks, as has happened in Germany and the Uk.
At the moment, the main thing is to restrict imported cases. Britain has quarantined travellers from countries such as Spain and France. Italy is calling for those returning from 4 countries to carry out mandatory tests. But this is not enough: there are transparent symptoms that the virus is circulating locally.
Some countries, besides Italy, have allowed outdoor nightclubs to function again, under pressure from industry groups. The authorities are now experiencing how complicated it is to insinuate the contacts of young revelers and involve the imaginable spread. A teenage girl tested positive after attending a nightclub in Marina di Pietrasanta, on the Tuscan coast. So far, another 550 people are reported to have come forward, strengthening the capacity of the local fitness system.
There is no doubt that some would prefer not to be known because they are concerned about a long era of self-isolation. Similar cases have occurred in sardinian nightclubs and in the southern Italian city of Soverato. It is wiser to keep these activities closed. These crowds are not very different from those of football stadiums, which are forbidden.
Finally, governments will want continued vigilance over the citizens’ component. In Italy, other people have been very docile in dressing in masks and restricting unnecessary contact. As the fatigue of social estrangement comes into play, those precautions began to slip; The same is true across Europe, where other people see the grim scenes of overworked doctors and ambulance sirens on the city streets. A little more individual caution would be a big step in controlling the pandemic.
Europe has shown that it has the institutional capacity to deal with this crisis. As the fall returns and more and more people move into enclosed spaces where contagion is easier, the dangers will increase. It’s better to act now than after.
This column necessarily reflects the perspectives of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Ferdinando Giugliano writes columns and editorials on the European economy for Bloomberg View. He is also an economic columnist for La Repubblica and a member of the editorial board of the monetary era.
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