The following transcript generated through AI.
Manny Anton: Hello and welcome to this week’s edition of Winston’s Weekly: all things property. My call is Manny Anton, your host for today’s Genuine Real Estate Talk. Winston, welcome back.
Winston Sammut: Thank you.
Manny Anton: We missed last week’s edition of the Weekly because we were affected during Easter. So we got a couple of weeks of news to cover today. So why not start now? There have been significant moves in the real estate sector over the past two weeks, specifically this week, when rates have risen again, especially in the US. after a couple of “weaker knowledge points”, and this has been reflected in some moves in stocks. But we’ve also noticed some pretty compelling moves nationally in our own real estate space. What do you think of some of those moves in recent weeks?And what’s your reaction to all this?
Winston Sammut: Well, the industry has done very, very well over the last 3 to 6 months. In March, the sector was up more than 9%, the REIT sector, and that’s a smart month. It has outperformed the sector and the stock market overall well. And that’s a 16% increase for the March quarter and almost 40% for the last six months, which is very, very significant moves. And obviously, this week we’ve noticed a slight sell-off. , which we will report on later. But I guess a lot of other people are looking to take profits and the sector still looks pretty well positioned, that is, if we get interest rate cuts.
Manny Anton: Okay. Basically, what you’re saying is that we deserve that the industry has performed very well.
Winston Sammut: Yes.
Manny Anton: So, the fact that a withdrawal here or there is neither here nor there.
Winston Sammut: Exactly.
Manny Anton: You have to keep in mind that it worked very well. Ok, get it. All right, so let’s move on to more internal matters. Today, residential housing still occupies a central position in the press. You know, every time you pick up a newspaper, it’s there. Yesterday, and this is interesting, we saw the structure approvals numbers that came in and surprised us to the downside: they actually fell by 1. 9% month-over-month in February, as opposed to market position expectations of a 3% increase. So I think it was a surprise. What do you think of those numbers and what do you think will affect the residential sector and the outlook?
Winston Sammut: Well, one of the things that influences is the question of origin and demand. In fact, we want a lot more housing, but that doesn’t seem to translate into new housing. And I think a lot of other things people take a step back when it comes to financing until they have a clearer idea of what’s actually going to happen with interest rates. And that’s reflected in lower demand. Let’s also not forget that in terms of source and demand, a lot of brands have really disappeared in the last 12 months, so it’s on the source side. It’s not smart for the economy or for industry. Therefore, the focus is more on used homes than new ones. And it’s also contributing to rising costs in the existing home sector. But look, I think once everyone knows what’s going on with interest rates, the picture will be much clearer. And I hope things will get better then.
Manny Anton: Okay. I mean, obviously, there’s an expectation that at some point (when that happens, we’re not sure), at some point, the RBA will shift to a less difficult position on rates. Now, if rates start to come down, couldn’t this buoy the residential real estate market?
Winston Sammut: Well, we go back to the source and call the situation in, in the sense that there are only a limited number of houses that can be built through a limited number of builders. Labor is clearly a factor that is advancing, but in the same way I think the interest rate factor is having inflation figures. So we just have to wait and see what happens with inflation in the future. But when it comes to fuel, there are a limited number of homes that can be built. at any given time. This will achieve a greater balance between existing homes and newly built homes.
Manny Anton: Okay. Now, I wanted to ask you something; So, let’s say we look at the ASX-indexed space and it becomes apparent that the indexed domestic real estate sector is being driven through a very small organization of inventories in the index. And, you know, you’ve noticeably noticed the functionality of the real estate index. Now it’s basically Goodman. He’s the one who’s driven a lot. And there is discussion and fear in the market that Goodman is now so enormously vital that, in the context of the index, he is the sole determinant of which direction the index moves and to what extent. What do you think of this specific discussion, and what are the risks that concern the market and having an inventory of them?
Winston Sammut: Well, Goodman is now approaching 40% of the A REIT index, which is a very high figure. But if we go back in time, Westfield, back in the day, was a vital component. I don’t think it reached 40%, but it was a significant amount. The challenge with Goodman is that right now many equity experts and many foreign investors view Goodman from the perspective of a global entity. It has expansion and exposure to several foreign markets. It’s well managed. Its gear is very weak. So it’s horny from that point of view. And what is literally being conveyed is that equity specialists and foreign players are taking Goodman as a benchmark for the entire industry. Goodman is up 70% in the last 12 months. But there’s another inventory that’s up 80% in the last 12 months and that’s HomeCo. So while Goodman’s was on the rise, it HomeCo. es a much smaller component of the index.
It’s kind of like the U. S. Magnificent Seven. There are seven stocks driving the market in the REIT sector, and the 300 index has only about 30 stocks. So Goodman’s, Charter Hall, Stockland, Mirvac, GPT, they’re the ones running the industry and they’re big and liquid and investors can get in and out pretty quickly. So that tends to make for a lot of volatility and I suspect that over the course of this week and next we’re probably going to see some relaxation of the index itself and exposure to Goodman.
Manny Anton: Okay, great. And let’s move on to the front lines of mergers and acquisitions. Charter Hall took some action last week.
Winston Sammut: Charter Hall acquired an approximately 14% stake in hotel property investments, which were sold through Tony Pitt. 360 Group’s Tony Pitt had built up a decent share of the inventory over the last 12/24 months and Charter Hall took advantage. And they put that investment into a separate deal with a 50/50 split between Charter Hall itself, Charter Hall core inventory and retail. Now, will there be any M&A activity in the future? The issue at hand is that neither Charter Hall nor CQR have the ability to make a full bid for the title. The CQR apparatus is up there right now. Charter Hall’s debt load is low, but historically it likes to keep that debt level low. So while she would invest in those types of corporations with her own cash up to a certain percentage, whether it’s 10% or 20%, it wouldn’t provide the liquidity needed to fully withdraw it. So I think it’s probably more of a wait and see technique and see if they can get some monetary partners over time and probably cash out.
Manny Anton: Okay. Got it. Before you leave M.
Winston Sammut: Having been released on parole last Thursday. By the mid-1970s, Bunnings now held one percent of the stock. They have until next Friday (12) because it’s a definitive offer, so they can’t extend the deadline, or the price, or anything. The question now is whether they can succeed on a 90% basis and then get the rest on a mandatory basis. So I think a lot of other people are waiting for the last few days to accept. So we expect a wave of violence over the next week.
Manny Anton: Okay. And let’s move on to Euree Asset Management. How is Eurée doing these days?How is the painting going and how is it evolving?
Winston Sammut: The functionality is going well. We have a tendency to underperform when markets are strong, marginally, but not hugely. But we outperform when markets pull back and that’s what happens to be going down over the course of this week. So we’re looking pretty smart right now. point.
Manny Anton: Super. Bien. Eh, well, in closing, something we’re looking for next week in real estate?Are there any major announcements coming up?
Winston Sammut: None of that stands out at the moment. The question now is what are the expectations of lower interest rates?And as I said, the most important thing is the timing, rather than whether or not they will happen. But it turns out to be rejected. Three or four months ago, everyone was talking about six or seven rate cuts in the United States starting in March, April, May and June. Now this is going back to maybe two or three cuts over the course of the year and the timetable is being rejected.
So there’s a little bit of uncertainty in that area. But on the other side of the equation, it’s going down because the economy, specifically in the United States, is working very, very well. So they don’t need to threaten to bring inflation back. at the forefront, and a similar scenario here in Australia. While I think expectations are high in Australia, those rate cuts will come much later in the year.
Manny Anton: Okay. Before I go, I’ll make a comment of sorts. Nonfarm payrolls figures will be released tonight.
Winston Sammut: Yes.
Manny Anton: It’s true that investors and U. S. investors are very, very nervous about this number. So this deserves to be brought out tonight. And if it far exceeds expectations, I think they’re looking at 200,000. If it far exceeds that number, it may just kick in!You know, we might see an aggressive rise in bond yields overnight. And it will be interesting to see how the stock markets react to that. If this figure surprises to the upside, it’s an overnight threat.
Winston Sammut: Maybe we should go in and paint with layers.
Manny Anton: Yes, indeed. It is ok. Winston, well, thanks again for your time. It was fantastic. And we’ll be back with another issue of Winston’s Weekly next Friday. Until then, have a wonderful day and a fabulous weekend.
Winston Sammut: Thank you.
Get updates delivered straight to your inbox.
Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Contact | Mail
Increases across all areas of Deep Leads resources: quality, tonnage and target area ABx Group has reported a 30% increase in its Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) at the Deep Leads Ionic Adsorption Clay (IAC) rare earth deposit in northern Tasmania. The accumulation in MRE comes from 36 extension wells analyzed, representing a significant northward extension for the existing Deep Leads prospect.
Lake Resources (LKE. ASX) – LKE has signed two non-binding memorandums of understanding within 10 days. Ford Company (Ford) has signed a memorandum of understanding for about 25,000 t/year and last week, Hanwa, a Japanese commodity trading company, signed a memorandum of understanding for up to 25,000 t/year. Subject to execution, this is a feat as Ford and Hanwa are in a position to engage in longer-term strategic partnerships with LKE. Commercial negotiations are still ongoing, but they should, i. e. if Ford and Hanwa inject new capital into LKE, it will further reduce the risk of the financing of the assignment and thus ensure that LKE and Kachi are fully funded.
Two recent severity studies have particularly exceeded expectations and revealed the possibility of expanding the existing MRE at Throssell Lake, as well as a significant expansion opportunity at Yeo Lake. This reinforces the prospect of a multi-decade-long Tier 1 SOP production facility around Throssell Lake.
TMG is currently completing paints for the planned PFS in early 2023, adding the start of drilling in the third quarter of 2022, evaporation testing and permitting activities. The effects of these systems will affect the SFP and any long-term resource improvements.
SOP reference prices have risen to around 940 USD/t due to recent geopolitical developments. The October 2021 scoping study assumed an SOP value of $550/t and contained a sensitivity study showing that every 10% accumulated in value effects at a cumulative $144 million in NPV of the $364 million allocation. The increase of approximately 70% during the scoping study implies an allocation NPV of approximately $1. 4 billion.
Despite the drop in oil and fuel prices, which fell by 5. 4% and 19. 7% respectively in August, Calima managed to record an improvement in its key industry indicators.
WT Financial Group Limited (WTL) is a fast-growing diversified monetary company founded in 2010 and indexed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) in 2015. Their recommendations and product offerings are primarily provided through an organization of independent money advisors who act as legal representatives. . de WTL in connection with its broker organisation business Wealth Today Pty Ltd (Wealth Today) and Sentry Group Pty Ltd (Sentry Group). It has approximately 275 advisers in more than two hundred money advice firms across Australia. It also operates a direct-to-consumer operation under its Spring Financial Group brand.
In May 2021, Corporate Connect analyst Marc Sinatra published a comprehensive study report on ASX-listed biotech company Immutep Ltd (ASX: IMM). He was so inspired by IMM that Corporate Connect felt it was imperative to publish a follow-up report that valued the company. as the market did not see the great prospects of Eftilagimod Alpha (EFTI).
The follow-up report published today. Using comparables, after adding a monetary rebate to its EV estimate and dividing it by the total number of percentages issued, Corporate Connect now puts the fair price of a percentage of Immutep at A$2. 20.