One of the most remarkable places I have visited is the ancient castle of Bam in southeastern Iran. Hidden upper walls, we do not realize the magnitude of this citadel that, in its general view, almost looks like a movie set. I was lucky enough to see it just before it was destroyed by an earthquake, although it has now been largely rebuilt.
At that time, in the post-September 11 world, George W. Bush criticized Iran as part of the “axis of evil,” which used the war in Iraq and the outbreak of the Arab Spring in Syria to deepen its tentacles. throughout the Middle East.
My sense of Iran is that, as much as we believed about Iran from a Western perspective, the opposite is true, and I suspect it still is, especially with regard to the Iranians themselves. Iran has a very deep and rich heritage, with an average elegance of sustainable fashion and a wide point of schooling among its population.
It is, however, closely led by a small, introverted, hard-line theocracy, with the aid and complicity of the Revolutionary Guards exercising de facto over Iran’s economy as well as other sectors.
Iran has been, for many reasons, the center of geopolitical intrigue, which is one of the reasons why the Iranian state is structurally suspicious of Britain and the United States, and today is the site of an open “covert” war with Israel.
In this confusing context, the protests across men and across Iran, which were triggered by the death of Mahsa Amini, are significant. Essentially, the protests were triggered by the new President Raisi’s preference to uphold strict Islamic decorum by expanding the number and vigor of morality police.
In a country with a very large young population that yearns for a more progressive society and where there is a developing gender consciousness (the film about stoning by Soraya M. It’s not only a smart film, but also a reminder of how the odds were against Iranian women. )), a measure as repressive as it is a bad idea.
More than a hundred people have died in Iran since the killing of Mahsa Amini. Although protests are widespread and common in Iran, they can have a lasting effect. The first is that Iran’s ideal leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, has health problems and, while a conversion of the guard does not produce a reformist leader, he could be more pragmatic. Second, “headscarf” protests may simply fuel widespread public civil disobedience (women can simply prevent them from wearing headscarves altogether) that can cause broader societal changes.
However, it is unlikely to produce what some call “regime replacement”: the Iranian state is too repressive to allow this, and there is enough paranoia and nationalism in Iran that any attempt at regime replacement is perceived as outside intervention in Iran.
The prospect of a slightly more elegant Iranian state poses an intriguing dilemma for those negotiating the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), which is now in its final stages. Are they doing everything imaginable to “break” the Iranian regime, or are they more likely to allow a deal and the relaxation of sanctions that could simply open up Iran’s economy and society?
While Israel will have a very strong voice in those behind-the-scenes deliberations, recent events in Saudi Arabia may also be a factor.
Saudi Arabia’s very public relief in oil production along with Russia is really a “rogue” shift on their part, given the military and geopolitics the US has enjoyed. U. S. Over the years. Iran is not only the polar opposite of Saudi Arabia socially, however, geopolitically it has so far been the opposite aspect. Needless to say, Saudi Arabia’s alignment with Russia (Iran is a close partner) portends a decisive shift in the region’s geopolitics, yet this week there is a sense that long-standing relations are beginning to break down.
Having a week ahead of you,
miguel
Follow me on @levellingbook