Until recently, the war in Ukraine had turned in Vladimir Putin’s favor. Despite some real Ukrainian successes (the use of drones, for example, to threaten the Russian army or the oil industry) on the front, Russia has introduced a series of offensives to push back the defenders. Even if they are not catastrophic for Ukraine, they have made the prospects for a reconquest of occupied territory even slimmer.
Then, in early August, Kiev’s forces broke through Russian defensive lines in an absolutely unforeseen direction: beyond the border with Russia’s Kursk region. Ukrainian forces temporarily advanced toward Kursk, seizing several key towns and roads. Initially, observers think it could simply be a minor or transitory incursion, like those carried out last year by Ukraine-aligned paramilitary teams. But today, Ukrainian forces control more than a thousand square kilometers of Russian territory, have taken a gigantic number of prisoners, and seem more interested in consolidating their gains than disappearing in Ukraine.
Why would Ukraine launch an offensive against Russia itself?After all, Kiev’s main objectives are to defend itself against Russian offensives and try to reconquer as much Ukrainian territory as possible. But the offensive on Kursk offers several transparent opportunities for Ukraine and headaches for Putin and his surprised commanders.
One of the immediate benefits for Ukraine is that attacking Russia itself tips the balance in kyiv’s favor. Instead of wasting territory, the Ukrainians are gaining territory. The broader narrative about the direction of the war influences the degree to which Ukraine’s partners are willing to send weapons and monetary support, which is therefore very important. This goes against Russia’s narrative that Ukraine cannot win the war, so the foreign network puts pressure on President Volodymyr Zelensky to reach a deal.
The longer the Ukrainian incursion continues, the more Russian commanders are pressured to prioritize it over their own offensives in Ukraine. Some 200,000 Russians are believed to have fled the Ukrainian advance and more Russian forces have moved into the region, not the same. Groups involved in Russian offensives. If they fail to engage or oppose Ukraine’s progress, Russian commanders would likely have to divert their troops from eastern Ukraine to stabilize the situation in Kursk.
The attack also sends a political message to the United States and other Western partners. Officials have long been concerned about an “escalation,” whether it’s sending complex weapons or authorizing their use on Russian territory. Zelensky is struggling with his partners to unload larger weapons and permission to use them. Putin and his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, know exactly what buttons to push to speed up discussions on escalation: Russia aims to be a nuclear power. The biggest point of contention has therefore been whether Ukraine can use externally supplied weapons opposed to Russia’s targets, such as air weapons. Bases. Ukraine’s position is that the army’s targets in Russia are valid as they are used for attacks against Ukraine. By attacking Kursk, Ukraine gives the impression that fighting on Russian territory does not necessarily lead to the kind of escalation that the Biden leadership is worried about, although, according to the Wall Street Journal, some officials in the directorate still fear “fierce retaliation” against targets in Russia and Ukraine.
Ukraine’s last fundamental merit is diplomatic. Although the Ukrainian military’s dominance of Russian territory is small, it provides Kyiv with some political clout. If Ukraine were to seek peace terms in the future, negotiating the territory it occupies in exchange for Russian concessions would be a simple victory. While peace negotiations are unlikely in the near term, primary occasions such as the United States presidential election have encouraged Zelensky to hedge his bets.
However, the Ukrainian attack also carries many risks. The further they go into Russia, the more complicated it will be to maintain the lines of origin and send reinforcements in a timely manner. Ukraine may also temporarily struggle to maintain its control over the region as Russian reinforcements begin to arrive. We have to prioritize the front lines of eastern Ukraine. If Russian forces in Kursk manage to retaliate in the coming weeks, Ukrainian generals would possibly be forced to make the same decision as Russia: withdraw troops from other parts of the front to strengthen defenses or reduce their losses and keep forces in place. If Ukrainian forces were to retreat to the border, they would also relinquish diplomatic influence and the new narrative that the balance of forces now favors Kyiv.
On Tuesday, Reuters reported heavy fighting as Ukraine’s advance ran into newly arrived Russian reserves and heavy weaponry. The Russian Defense Ministry has released photographs of Sukhoi Su-34 bombers attacking what are believed to be Ukrainian positions. “The enemy’s out-of-control advance has already been stopped,” said Maj. Gen. Apti Alaudinov, commander of the Chechen Akhmat special forces unit. “The enemy is already aware that the blitzkrieg he planned has not succeeded. “
For the moment, it turns out that Zelensky is staying calm, despite Moscow’s new nuclear threats. “Russia brought the war to others, now it is returning home. Ukraine has sought peace and, in fact, we will ensure peace,” he said. he said in his Monday night speech.
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