Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has spent much of the past four years imitating one man: Donald Trump. Bolsonaro did so in his 2018 presidential campaign, when his iconoclastic political taste and crude statements about women, indigenous groups and the media earned him the nickname “Trump. “of the tropics. ” He did so by endorsing the COVID-19 pandemic, when he spoke out against lockdowns and spread incorrect information about the protection and effectiveness of life-saving vaccines. And he did so after the U. S. presidential election. UU. de 2020, when Bolsonaro became one of the few foreign leaders who helped Trump’s baseless claims about voter fraud, and was one of the last to acknowledge Trump’s defeat.
The concern facing many Brazilians now is that Bolsonaro could hold his biggest act of homage to Trump yet when his country goes to the polls for a runoff between Bolsonaro and his leftist rival, former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, on Oct. 30. Brazil’s far-right leader has spent much of the past year claiming, without evidence, that his country’s e-voting formula is likely fraudulent. (Brazil’s e-voting formula, which was explicitly introduced more than two decades ago to combat fraud, has a strong track record of reliability. ) Bolsonaro has continually refused to have interaction in a nonviolent force movement if he loses his re-election, presenting its only characteristics such as victory, arrest or death. As expected in the first round, Brazilian democracy appears to be on the verge of entering a collision course with Bolsonaro and his unwavering main supporters, some of whom have threatened violence against their opponents.
The fact that Lula, as the former president is known, did not win decisively in the first round, as some polls suggested, further increases the chances that Bolsonaro will invoke the “Stop the Steal” narrative. Brazil’s president gave the impression of doubling the bet. On his allegations of voter fraud on Sunday despite his outperforming polls, he told reporters that “there is an option that anything abnormal can happen in a fully automatic system. “
Trump’s “Stop the Steal” playbook would likely appear for the Brazilian president to follow. After all, the former U. S. president was not allowed to do so. UU. no prevented Joe Biden’s transition of power. Trump clearly disgraces being the first president to be impeached twice. So the likely question is, what does Bolsonaro gain by mimicking a strategy that ultimately failed?
The answer is a lot. Yes, Trump did not retain the presidency. But through virtually every measure, it has been a success. He remains the de facto leader of the Republican Party and is widely known as the favorite to win his party’s nomination in the 2024 presidential election. election. Unlike most former presidents, who tend to retreat into relative post-political obscurity, Trump remains relevant. While this is partly due to the diversity of civilian and criminal investigations it faces, it is also influenced by the plot. as for whether he will actually run as a candidate in 2024. “I’ve already made that decision,” Trump said in July in New York. magazine, without further elaboration. A smart artist knows how to keep their audience engaged.
If Bolsonaro has learned anything from Trump, it’s that tort politics may have its advantages. He may be armed to galvanize his base, supply his allies, and, perhaps most importantly for Boslonaro, protect him from prosecution by pointing to such efforts. A politically motivated witch hunt. For Bolsonaro, who in the past faced potential criminal charges for his mishandling of the COVID-19 pandemic, this may be a factor in his decision-making. layer of protection,” says Oliver Stuenkel, a professor of foreign relations at Fundação Getúlio Vargas, a university and think tank in São Paulo. “Bolsonaro’s interpretation is that there is a genuine incentive not to give in and in many tactics it would be greater if he contested the result. “
Read more: What you want to know about Brazil’s elections
But Brazilian democracy would fare worse. The country’s religion in democracy had already taken a hit under Bolsonaro, with 44% believing Brazil is less democratic, according to a recent study conducted through YouGov. Analysts worry that Bolsonaro’s baseless claims about extra voting machines undermine Brazilians’ confidence in democratic procedure and may even lead to widespread unrest or, worse, a coup attempt. Allegations of electoral fraud and content that discredits the electoral procedure are multiplying on Brazilian social networks.
While American institutions ultimately resisted Trump’s efforts to overturn the election, its consequences are still felt today. voting in nearly every single U. S. stateMidterm U. S. in November. Brazil’s democracy could become even less solid. Even if a coup attempt does not materialize, the country may also end up with millions of staunch Bolsonaro supporters who no longer have confidence in the democratic process. In this way, Sabatini adds, “the damage has already been done. “
What Bolsonaro does after all is yet to be guessed. In the run-up to the first round of voting, the Brazilian leader made contradictory statements. In a podcast last month, he gave the impression of acknowledging the prospect of electoral defeat and said he would leave politics if that happened. A few days later, on his way to London for the funeral of Queen Elizabeth II, he told a Brazilian broadcaster that if he won less than 60% of the vote in the first round of voting, “something abnormal happened. “Although Lula is still expected to triumph on Oct. 30, his narrower margin of victory in the first round has left many worried about Bolsonaro’s reaction to such an outcome later this month.
“He’s a notoriously intemperate and capricious person, so we may not know until then,” Sabatini says. “I probably don’t even know so far. “
Update, October 3
This story has been updated following the effects of the first election circular in Brazil on October 2.