Last week, a bunch of professionals from around the world gathered in Delhi for the inaugural Skift India Summit and an opportunity to gain valuable insights from the CEOs of leading brands, including The Oberoi Group, OYO, Agoda and the country’s national airline, Air India. “India is going through tough times,” says Brian Quinn, Skift’s head of event programming, “and India is poised to become the world’s biggest force in the coming years. “
Ten years ago, the same could have been said of Chinese tourists. In 2014, some 117 million Chinese tourists emigrated overseas, a 20% increase over the previous year. But ten years and a pandemic later, China’s outflows have yet to slow. it has recovered to pre-Covid levels, while the power and focus of the global tourism system has shifted southeastwards towards India.
With more than 1. 4 billion people, India is now the world’s largest population and fifth-largest economy. India’s exports are developing much faster than those of any other country, which has led to an avalanche of predictions that have brands salivating.
“The prospects are huge,” says Caroline Bremner, head of tourism research at Euromonitor International, which predicts 47 million Indian travellers abroad by 2030. “That’s more than double what it was in 2019. , from $35 billion in 2019 to $84 billion in 2030,” he says. “Essentially, India is moving up the ladder and will become the world’s sixth-largest source market by 2030, after China, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany and France. . »
A 2023 report by Nangia Andersen, the Indian arm of Andersen Global, predicts that outflows to India will grow at a compound annual expansion rate (CAGR) of 11. 2% through 2032, roughly in line with Euromonitor’s forecast for tourism volume. If the projections are true, then another, wilder prediction may not be so far-fetched after all: Organisers of the Arabian Travel Market (ATM), an industry convention to be held in Dubai in May, have trumpeted that India’s outbound market will be valued at $144 billion a year until the end of this decade.
And a recent McKinsey report is equally positive about Indian tourism’s long-term customers. “Departures to India are expected to grow from thirteen million trips in 2022 to more than 80 million in 2040,” the authors write. Following China’s outbound trajectory (which may be the case, due to similarity in population length and consistent with the trajectory of the capita revenue source), Indian tourists could make 80 to 90 million year-to-year trips until 2040. “
Given all this hype, it’s understandable that travel logos have started courting Indian tourists in droves, employing celebrities as influencers. Bollywood icon Shah Rukh Khan announces Dubai and Katrina Kaif, a British actress who makes Hindi films, professes her allegiance to Accor. Actor Ranveer Singh appears in the Abu Dhabi ads, while his wife, Deepika Padukone, is the global ambassador for the Qatar Airways logo. Meanwhile, Neeraj Chopra, the reigning Olympic gold medallist and world champion in javelin, has been hired to advertise Switzerland’s stunning alpine landscapes.
However, before departures to India can reach their full potential, industry experts believe, the volume of flights to and from the country (a number mutually agreed upon through the two respective governments) is set to increase dramatically. There were about 14% more flight routes through city pairs to and from India last year compared to 2019, according to data from FlightAware. Currently, airlines operate only 18 scheduled passenger flights each week between India and the U. S. The U. S. population has increased by 14 in 2019.
Some destinations have made adjustments to their policies to increase capacity. At the end of 2022, Canada raised the limit on the number of flights from India from 35 per week to “unlimited” and granted Indian airlines six hubs, adding Toronto, Montreal, Edmonton and Vancouver. Meanwhile, South Africa Tourism has partnered with Ethiopia Airlines to offer faster connections between India and Africa. Even Bhutan’s prime minister is under pressure over a desire to improve air connectivity between India and the tiny Buddhist kingdom.
Airlines are also taking note of India’s growing importance. Notably, Singapore Airlines signed a deal at the end of 2022 with Tata Group, paying $250 million for a 25% stake in Air India. Last November, Goh Choon Phong, CEO of Singapore Airlines, told Forbes Asia his goal to make India a new hub. You can see how many perspectives there are,” Goh said. “India is developing, but it’s particularly neglected. “
Hotel CEOs are also being seduced by growing economic forecasts. “We are blessed by population growth around the world and the increase in the number of families unable to travel,” said Sébastien Bazin, chief executive of the French hotel giant. Accor told investors on the company’s last earnings call in February. He gave a brief lesson on the global economy, noting that the emerging population of the global middle class has ballooned to one billion in the last ten years. “Half of them are from India,” he said. It’s probably fair to say that in the next 10 years, demand will no longer grow by 3 to five percent, but probably by four to six percent. times greater than the supply. And a big part of that, once again, is India alone, which is expected to bring $500 million to its emerging middle class.
“India is a brilliant and gentle country economically,” echoes Bremner, noting that the country’s current economic expansion rate of 8% is higher than China’s. In addition, it shows no signs of slowing down.
Last year, 1. 7 million Indian tourists visited the United States, making India the country’s fourth-largest source of income after Canada, Mexico, and the United Kingdom. The average Indian tourist also spends cash when traveling abroad — about $5,252 per trip, according to the last six months of insights gathered through National Travel
If the U. S. wants to attract more Indian tourists in the future, experts say it wants to make it much less difficult to enter the country. “I firmly believe that less friction will lead to more travel,” says Omri Morgenshtern, CEO of Agoda. Asia’s largest online travel agency. “Friction can be eliminated by adding direct flights, as well as introducing visa waivers or being able to book accommodation, flights and activities electronically in a single app. “
Currently, 62 countries allow Indians to enter India without first obtaining a visa, 10 more than in 2016, when the Henley Passport Index was launched.
Although the U. S. is approving more visas for Indians today than in pre-pandemic years, the average wait time for a visa is still about 10 months, according to the U. S. State Department’s website. Before an enthusiasm for the United States, an Indian citizen must wait for a visa interview, which can last from 197 days at the U. S. Embassy in New Delhi to 423 days at the U. S. Consulate in Mumbai. In comparison, Indian tourists can get a visa for Canada in just 23 days or for the UK. in about 3 weeks.
U. S. officials readily acknowledge that visa wait times are a big problem. Speaking Tuesday at the Skift India summit, Eric Garcetti, the U. S. ambassador to India, told convention attendees that President Joe Biden had asked him in particular to address the delay. I bet this is the moment when the president of the United States has said to the ambassador, ‘Please take care of visa issues,'” Garcetti said.
Visa waivers have a proven track record and give countries a competitive advantage, insists Morgenstern, Agoda’s chief executive. After Azerbaijan introduced the ASAN system, which processes e-visas within three business days of submitting an application, Indian tourists’ interest skyrocketed and arrivals “Both Thailand and Malaysia applied for visa waivers for Indian tourists late last year, leading to a rapid increase in searches from India to both markets,” Morgenshtern says, noting that searches in Thailand are increasing fivefold. “In the two months since the visa waiver came into effect, Bangkok has overtaken Dubai as the most booked urban destination by Indians. “Still, the emirate must not be fooled. In February, Dubai introduced a five-year multiple-entry visa for incoming Indian travelers.
Another explanation for why India is such an attractive source market is its young population. Only 7% of India’s population is 65 or older, compared with 14% in China and 18% in the United States, according to data from a recent Pew Research study. People under the age of 25 make up more than 40% of India’s population. “In fact, there are so many Indians in this age organization that approximately one in five people under the age of 25 in the world lives in India. “, notes the Pew report. If we look at the age distribution of India, the average age of the country is 28 years. By comparison, the median age is 38 in the U. S. and 39 in China. “
“It’s an educated, digitally savvy population,” Bremner says, adding that more than 75% of India’s millennials and Gen X traveled in 2023, according to Euromonitor data.
“Indian travelers are more committed to ecotourism and sustainability than their foreign counterparts. They’re open to all kinds of experiences, from luxury to eco-adventure,” Bremner continues. “And, of course, they spend a lot. It’s no surprise that destinations from Asia to the Middle East, Europe and the United States are chasing them.