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The world has officially recorded 1 million deaths due to COVID-19 in one of the most disappointing stages of the pandemic, but the real total can be the maximum of double.
Alan Lopez, professor and director of the University of Melbourne, said the number of real deaths from the worst epidemic in a century may be closer to 1. 8 million, a death toll that could reach 3 million by the end of the year. . disease burden. The immediate spread of coronavirus and its ability to transmit in others who show no symptoms of the disease have allowed it to overcome measures to quantify cases through widespread diagnostic tests.
“One million deaths has meaning in and of itself, but the question is whether it is true,” Lopez said in an interview before the count was reached. “It’s fair to say that the million deaths, shocking as it may sound, is probably an underestimate – a significant underestimate.
Even in countries with complicated fitness systems, mortality is complicated, as should be assessed. Tens of thousands of deaths likely related to COVID-19 in the United States were not captured through official statistics between March and May, according to a July study. , thwarting efforts to track and mitigate the progress of the pandemic.
Lack of accurate knowledge undermines the ability of governments to put into force methods and policies in a timely manner for public aptitude and promote economic recovery. If COVID-19 mortality reached 3 million as Lopez predicted, it would place the disease among the most important. The worst killers in the world. Insufficient death counting can also give others a false sense of security and allow governments to minimize the virus and forget the burden of the pandemic.
India has shown more than 6 million cases of COVID-19, but it accounts for only about 95,000 of the 1 million reported deaths worldwide, according to insights collected through Johns Hopkins University. The country, which has the highest number of infections after the United States. , it does not have a reliable formula of important national statistics to track deaths in real time. Meanwhile, in Indiana, USA, researchers found that while retirement home citizens were not tested for the virus, they accounted for 55% of COVID-19 deaths in the state.
“Yes, cases are reported everywhere, however, as soon as you reach the next level, such as the number of hospital admissions, there have been huge gaps in the data,” Christopher J said. Murray, Director of the Institute of Health. Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington at Seattle. Medical data, summarising the duration of the disease and symptoms, attribute a likely cause of death, he said.
Patients with central disease, diabetes, cancer and other chronic diseases are more likely to die from COVID-19. Some governments, adding to Russia, characterize the cause of death of some of these patients to the pre-existing state, raising doubts about truthfulness. official mortality data.
In July, Russia recorded 5922 COVID-19 deaths; at least 4157 more deaths were similar to coronavirus, but were included in the count due to the country’s definition of these deaths. Overall, it recorded 29925 more deaths in July than in the same month of 2019.
WHO introduced rules for classifying coronavirus deaths in June, advising countries to report deaths if patients have symptoms of the disease, whether it is a case shown or not, and unless there is some other transparent cause. as such, even if pre-existing situations exacerbate the disease, the organization said. The U. S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has been in the process ofThe U. S. has issued similar rules.
Still, fitness staff may need time to certify deaths to adopt the methodology, said Lopez of the University of Melbourne. Bloomberg News.
“Doctors need to be informed as they pass, so they don’t certify all COVID deaths as COVID deaths,” Lopez said.
Although the pandemic has replaced global mortality patterns, not all adjustments are a direct result of the pandemic, he said. Physical removal measures could have reduced the number of road deaths and influenza deaths. In Japan, which has been analyzed for its absence of widespread evidence and lax containment efforts, deaths fell by 3. 5% in May compared to the previous year, even as COVID-19 cases peaked.
“The pandemic works contradictoryly with mortality,” Lopez said.
Similarly, the economic burden of the pandemic, which may exceed $ 35. 3 trillion through 2025, will be driven more by adjustments in people’s spending patterns than by the number of deaths and “lockdown” measures imposed. through government, according to Warwick McKibbin, an economics professor at the Australian National University and a non-resident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
“We estimate that this epidemic will charge the global economy tens of billions,” McKibbin said in an interview. “The replacement in economic functionality is because Americans change their behavior, because the government ordered a closure.
Worldwide, the expansion in the number of deaths has moderated since the peak in March and April, thanks to medical care and advanced tactics to treat the disease. But as resurgences erupt in Europe and North America before winter and flu season, COVID-19-related deaths may increase again. It took nine days for UK instances to double to 3,050 by mid-September, since the last five-week duplication time, the BMJ newspaper said last week.
Patients with COVID-19 75 to 84 years of age are 220 times more likely to die from the disease than those 18 to 29 years old, according to the CDC. People over the age of 85 are 630 times more likely to die. THE fatal cases of COVID-19 have made other people think, “they’re old, they’ll die anyway,” said Michael Osterholm, epidemiologist and director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy.
“I’m suffering from that, ” said Osterholm in an interview. ” It’s an unfortunate and very unhappy way of understanding this pandemic. Many of those other deceased people are very enjoyed people for many of us who are hard to dismiss as just a number. “
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