China is stepping up its military, economic and diplomatic coercion over Taiwan, which it considers a lost territory that will have to be returned, by force if necessary. While a war between China and the U. S. The emerging tensions raise vital and vital questions that must be resolved: Why is Taiwan vital vital, and why does it deserve Americans to care about its fate?What effect would Chinese aggression against Taiwan have on the United States?and deserves to be done to protect the interests of the United States?
With the United States thousands of miles from Taiwan, the island’s fate will have primary implications for U. S. security and prosperity. What happens in the Taiwan Strait will also confront basic foreign problems and the long-term democracy problem. Our recent report through the Council on Foreign Relations-sponsored independent task force, U. S. -Taiwan Relations in a New Era: Responding to a More Asertive China, explains that the United States has important strategic interests at stake in the Taiwan Strait and examines how the United States protects the interests.
Taiwan occupies a critical position in the most economically critical region in the world. As Deputy Secretary of Defense Ely Ratner noted, “Taiwan sits at a critical node in the first island chain, anchoring a network of U. S. allies and partners. That stretches from the Japanese archipelago to the Philippines and the South China Sea, i. e. critical to the security of the region and critical to protecting critical U. S. interests. U. S. in the Indo-Pacific.
The inherent price of Taiwan’s military cannot be ignored. Instead, its location dictates that its fate will largely determine the balance of forces in the region. With Taiwan out of its American allies and partners and spread across the first island chain, the Chinese military will struggle to allocate its force far beyond China’s shores. However, if China were to annex Taiwan and base military assets such as underwater surveillance devices, submarines and air defense equipment on the island, it could restrict U. S. access to Taiwan. The U. S. military operations in the region and, subsequently, its ability to protect itself from its Asian allies. With Taiwan under China’s control, it would be much harder for the U. S. to stay in the U. S. The US must maintain a balance of forces in the Indo-Pacific or prevent a Chinese attempt at regional dominance.
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What happens in the Taiwan Strait will have massive implications for the long-term U. S. alliances. The U. S. government’s efforts in the region, which constitute Washington’s ultimate vital asymmetrical merit over Beijing. The island would be only seventy miles from Japanese territory and two hundred miles from the Philippines. allies would come to wonder if the U. S. would be able to do so. The U. S. would come or even come to his defense. Having lost confidence in U. S. commitment. with their security, the allies would accommodate China or protect themselves against it by creating their armies or even creating nuclear weapons. Any of the end results would result in a decline in U. S. influence. The U. S. and an expansion of regional and global instability.
A Chinese attack on Taiwan, regardless of its good fortune or whether the U. S. is in the U. S. If the US has decided to intervene, it would also cause a global economic depression and reduce trillions of dollars in world economic output. Taiwanese companies manufacture nearly 70% of the world’s semiconductors and about 90% of the peak complex chips. If the world loses Taiwan’s production capacity, no other company will be able to fill the gap anytime soon. During a Chinese blockade or attack, the production and shipment of semiconductors would impede, leading to shortages of all products containing technology, from smartphones to computers to cars. Companies in the sectors deserve to reduce or even impede production.
Taiwan’s fate also has implications for the ultimate basic principles of foreign order. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, if China controlled absorbing Taiwan despite Taiwanese resistance, it would identify a style of force of authoritarian countries to attack democratic neighbors and replace borders. One of the highest basic pillars of foreign relations, namely that countries cannot use force to replace borders, would be seriously compromised.
Politically, Taiwan is one of Asia’s few democratic stories of good fortune and, in some ways, the freest society in the region. Its open political formula shows Chinese citizens that there is a path of progress for a predominantly Chinese society. If China were to take Taiwan by force, Taiwan’s democracy would be extinguished and its twenty-three million other inhabitants would have their rights severely curtailed. As would happen after China’s crackdown on democracy in Hong Kong, the ramifications would be even greater.
The stakes are clear, which is why the U. S. The US will have to redouble its efforts to deter China from force or coercion to achieve unification with Taiwan. While a military confrontation in the Taiwan Strait is neither imminent nor inevitable, the chances of a confrontation are increasing. Taiwan policy will have to evolve to cope with a more capable, assertive, risk-taking China that is increasingly dissatisfied with the prestige quo.
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