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Biden said he was “absolutely convinced” that the military would escort Trump out of the White House if the president lost the November election and refused to resign.
Speaking to Trevor Noah of The Daily Show, the Democratic presidential candidate said his biggest fear is that Trump will “try to borrow this election. “
2020 US Election: What Kind of President Would Joe Biden Be?
Biden cited “Trump’s unfounded connection between mail-in voting and voter fraud . . . and his accusations, without evidence, that Democrats are trying to manipulate the election” to resolve points of his concerns, according to The Guardian.
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2020 US Election: What Kind of President Would Joe Biden Be?
The style of UK-based independent consultancy Oxford Economics uses unemployment, the available source of income and inflation to forecast results, predicting that the recession resulting from the coronavirus pandemic will see the incumbent president win just 35% of the popular vote in November.
Before the global pandemic, the style showed the Republican leader on track for victory with 55% of the vote, but given his current position, “it would take nothing less than an economic miracle for portfolios to favor Trump,” Oxford Economics says in a study. Report on the new analysis.
The economy will be an “almost insurmountable impediment to Trump in November,” the report adds.
This prediction aligns with several other primary projections that also show Trump will lose the next presidential election to presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden. One such analysis, conducted through The Economist, implemented a statistical strategy called “multilevel and post-stratification regression” for the most likely winner.
The researchers drew on data from some 9,000 voters surveyed through YouGov in March and April and created “forecasts for more than 380,000 types, one of them for a combination of nine other demographic and geographic factors. “
“After all those fanciful calculations, six months before the election, Mr. Biden is six points ahead of Mr. Trump,” the magazine concluded. “If the vote were held today, he would win. “
So, is it all over for the president?
Not necessarily. Models based solely on economic trends, such as the one developed through Oxford Economics, “are not political crystal balls,” and seeking to apply the classic model of a pandemic is particularly difficult, says CNN.
“Traditional models work in general. But now we’re in general times,” Greg Valliere, lead U. S. policy strategist at AGF Investments, told the U. S. channel.
Moreover, while polls imply that Biden has a solid lead nationally, “as Hillary Clinton’s experience in 2016 shows. . . winning the popular vote nationally does not guarantee that he can claim the White House,” the Times said.
Could Biden’s fortunes change?
In addition to a lingering suspicion of a scandal similar to the Ukraine investigation that ultimately led to Trump’s impeachment, there is an allegation of sexual assault on Biden, which may prove costly next November.
Tara Reade, a former Biden staffer, claims the then-senator assaulted her in the U. S. Senate in 1993.
However, the public’s reaction to those allegations has been “muted,” says FiveThirtyEight.
“A Morning Consult/Politico poll of the Democratic electorate found that a portion of respondents said the allegations would not affect their resolve to endorse Biden, and 32% of Democrats said he had not behaved inappropriately at all,” the news and investigation report.
In the end, it’s possibly Biden’s “penchant for mistakes” that may hurt him the most, too, said Business Insider opinion columnist Michael Gordon. The pro-Republican media has questioned the president’s long-term intellectual abilities, going public with his sporadic mistakes. even more harmful.
“In general, gaffes and mistakes hurt a candidate when they are through a discourse that is already about voters,” Gordon says. “A primary or sustained blunder. . . raises considerations about Biden’s alleged cognitive abilities. “
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Will there be elections?
Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and adviser, recently said, “I’m not sure I can dedicate myself one way or the other [to holding the election in November], but right now that’s the plan. “
According to MarketWatch, “this implied that Kushner had the idea that someone else in the leadership, perhaps the president himself, could postpone the election, and that the November 3 election date was not set in stone. “
However, Vox claims that the president is in a position to change the date of the elections, at least without the blessing of Congress.
The greatest danger to American democracy “is not that our elections will be postponed,” says The Nation justice correspondent Elie Mystal, but “that access to those elections will be reserved only for those likely to vote for Donald Trump. “
State governors “would possibly limit meetings; may limit movement; They can limit the hours when other people can leave their homes. And they can impose those limitations from county to county, which means their ability to gather in a long line to vote. “he would possibly count on the network he lives on,” Mystal writes.
Regardless of those concerns, Biden’s strong national lead in the polls still provides him with an advantage over Trump during the final six months of the campaign.
However, against the unprecedented backdrop of elections, as the world grapples with the coronavirus crisis, it has never been harder to guess the final outcome.
“There is no doubt that American politics has been turned upside down,” says Australia’s ABC News. “The effects will be widespread, long-lasting and entirely predictable. “
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Arion McNicoll is a freelancer at The Week Digital and was once editor of the UK website. He also held editorial positions at CNN, The Times and The Sunday Times. In addition to his writing work, he is co-host of “Today in History with The Retrospectors,” Rethink Audio’s flagship daily podcast, and is a regular panelist (and occasional alternate presenter) on “The Week Unwrapped. “He is also a judge for the Publisher Podcast Awards.