Read The Diplomat, Know The Asia-Pacific
As India’s ballistic missile defense system is further tested and development, Islamabad was compelled to illustrate its own response capabilities.
In late October 2023, Pakistan tested an Abbeel missile for the first time since 2017. Pakistan’s decision to expand and test missiles capable of independent reentry vehicles (MIRVs) such as the Ababeel is in line with Pakistan’s policy of “full-spectrum deterrence as a component of Pakistan’s broad-spectrum deterrence policy. ” The saying is a credible minimum deterrent. The Ababeel, the Pakistani military explained in 2017, was developed to ensure the “survival of Pakistani ballistic missiles. “
The progression of this type of MIRV-capable missile is a reaction to risk perceptions emerging in New Delhi, due to India’s efforts to expand and expand its ballistic missile defense (BMD) program. Islamabad fears that India’s operationalization of its BMD formulas on land and sea may simply undermine Pakistan’s ability to retaliate against an Indian first strike. Pakistan is keen for India’s BMD programme, as well as New Delhi’s enhanced missile capabilities, specifically in terms of speed and accuracy, to be components of an Indian strategy to unleash counter-attack weapons. movements of force opposed to the deterrent forces of Pakistan. Thus, the purpose of Ababeel’s breakthrough is to neutralize the risk that a functional Indian MDB formula poses to Pakistan’s deterrence and, ultimately, to South Asia’s strategic skill.
Lately, India is building a missile shield to protect its command centers and population and commercial centers, as well as critical military infrastructure, adding missile storage sites, airfields, and giant cantonments. India’s BMD program began in the 1990s, with the first interceptor. revised on November 7, 2006, making the country the fourth country to test the anti-ballistic missile after the United States, Israel and Russia.
India has a two-tiered ballistic missile defense system, consisting of Prithvi Air Defense Vehicle (PAD)/Prithvi Defense Vehicle (PDV) and Ashwin Advanced Air Defense (AAD) interceptors. The former can intercept missiles at exo-atmospheric altitudes between 50-180 kilometers, while the latter can destroy missiles within atmospheric (endo-atmospheric) altitudes, ranging between 20-40 kilometers. Both interceptors have been tested successfully multiple times.
According to Indian media that mentioned Indian defense officials, the first phase of India’s BMD formula will soon be implemented and the formula will first protect two major cities: New Delhi, the capital, and Mumbai, a key commercial hub.
Phase 2 of testing the BMD formula began on November 2, 2022, when India effectively tested the AD-1 interceptor, capable of intercepting long-diversity ballistic missiles in exo-atmospheric and low-endo-atmospheric situations. The new interceptor will increase interception diversity up to 5,000 km, a significant improvement over Phase 1’s 2,000 km diversity, according to Janes, citing officials from the Indian Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO).
To track and target incoming projectiles, India is building a BMD radar site in Udaipur, which is expected to become operational until 2024, along with other sites in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. The sites are being developed to space out long-range tracking radar. (LRTR), the swordfish, a complex variant of Israel’s Green Pine radar.
Also, India needs to go further and add a maritime arm to its BMD formula. This effort is evident in India’s efforts to move beyond its ability to release interceptors from land-based launchers to now achieve the capability to release interceptors from warships. India first demonstrated this ability in April, firing a sea-based endo-atmospheric interceptor. It was introduced through INS Anvesh, which last year was tasked with verifying the phase 2 trials of BMD, in this case the sea trials. This platform is a temporary platform. device to verify and validate sea-based BMD interceptors before India deploys the formula on Indian warships.
The latest test of Ababaeel in Pakistan can be seen as a reaction to India’s continued expansion of its BMD capabilities. The launch of the second phase of India’s missile defense program would likely have prompted Pakistan to try it.
On paper, a BMD system looks like a defensive matter, but it is in actuality a offensive development. In this case, BMD is a cardinal part of the Indian nuclear strategy of launching pre-emptive strikes on Pakistan’s counterforce targets while remaining immune from Pakistan’s retaliatory nuclear response.
Ababeel is a deterrent being developed to lessen Indian counterforce temptations, which are intensifying as the BMD program expands. This is noticeable in India’s efforts to diversify its delivery systems and persistent efforts to reduce the probability of circular error (CEP) accurately, thus reiterating the presence of a counterforce strategy. The progression of the Agni-P, a medium-range ballistic missile developed through the DRDO with a reported CEP of just 10 meters, illustrates India’s intentions.
Once India’s land and sea interceptors are operational, they will disrupt the mutual vulnerability that exists between the two states by reducing the effectiveness of a retaliatory strike. The firing of the AD-1 interceptor last year and its release into the sea this year as a component The demonstration of the AD-1’s effectiveness from land and sea platforms will especially enhance India’s ability to intercept missiles.
Thus, Pakistan’s efforts to further develop and demonstrate Ababeel’s capabilities are meant to maintain its threat as credible and to indicate to India that Pakistan will protect its sovereignty and territoriality at all costs and will not submit to Indian coercion. The recent test demonstrates Pakistan’s determination to prevent India from destabilizing the area by developing and deploying an efficient BMD system.
Understand Asia-Pacific’s biggest issues with a subscription to The Diplomat.
In late October 2023, Pakistan tested an Abbeel missile for the first time since 2017. Pakistan’s decision to expand and test independent reentry vehicle (MIRV)-capable missiles such as the Ababeel is part of Pakistan’s policy of “full-spectrum deterrence under Pakistan’s full control. “spectrum deterrence policy”. maximum minimum credible deterrence. The Ababeel, the Pakistani military explained in 2017, was developed to ensure the “survival of Pakistani ballistic missiles. “
The progression of this type of MIRV-capable missile is a reaction to risk perceptions emerging in New Delhi, due to India’s efforts to expand and expand its ballistic missile defense (BMD) program. Islamabad fears that India’s operationalization of its BMD formulas on land and sea may simply undermine Pakistan’s ability to retaliate against an Indian first strike. Pakistan is keen for India’s BMD programme, as well as New Delhi’s enhanced missile capabilities, specifically in terms of speed and accuracy, to be components of an Indian strategy to unleash counter-attack weapons. movements of force opposed to the deterrent forces of Pakistan. Thus, the purpose of Ababeel’s breakthrough is to neutralize the risk that a functional Indian MDB formula poses to Pakistan’s deterrence and, ultimately, to South Asia’s strategic skill.
Lately, India is building a missile shield to protect its command centers and population and commercial centers, as well as critical military infrastructure, adding missile storage sites, airfields, and giant cantonments. India’s BMD program began in the 1990s, with the first interceptor. revised on November 7, 2006, making the country the fourth country to test the anti-ballistic missile after the United States, Israel and Russia.
India has a two-tiered ballistic missile defense system, consisting of Prithvi Air Defense Vehicle (PAD)/Prithvi Defense Vehicle (PDV) and Ashwin Advanced Air Defense (AAD) interceptors. The former can intercept missiles at exo-atmospheric altitudes between 50-180 kilometers, while the latter can destroy missiles within atmospheric (endo-atmospheric) altitudes, ranging between 20-40 kilometers. Both interceptors have been tested successfully multiple times.
According to Indian media that mentioned Indian defense officials, the first phase of India’s BMD formula will soon be implemented and the formula will first protect two major cities: New Delhi, the capital, and Mumbai, a key commercial hub.
The phase 2 test of the BMD formula began on November 2, 2022, when India effectively tested the AD-1 interceptor, capable of intercepting highly diverse ballistic missiles in low exoatmospheric and endoatmospheric conditions. diversity of up to 5,000 km, a significant improvement over the 2,000 km diversity of Phase 1, according to Janes, citing officials from India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO).
To support the tracking and targeting of incoming projectiles, India is constructing a BMD radar site at Udaipur, likely to become operational by 2024, along with other sites in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. The sites are being developed to host long-range tracking radar (LRTR), the Swordfish, an advanced variant of Israel’s Green Pine radar.
Also, India needs to go further and add a maritime arm to its BMD formula. This effort is evident in India’s efforts to move beyond its ability to release interceptors from land-based launchers to now achieve the capability to release interceptors from warships. India first demonstrated this ability in April, firing a sea-based endo-atmospheric interceptor. It was introduced through INS Anvesh, which last year was tasked with verifying the phase 2 trials of BMD, in this case the sea trials. This platform is a temporary platform. device to verify and validate sea-based BMD interceptors before India deploys the formula on Indian warships.
Ababaeel’s latest test in Pakistan can be seen as a reaction to India’s continued expansion of BMD capacity. The publication of the second phase of India’s missile defense program would possibly have prompted Pakistan to give it a try.
On paper, a BMD system looks like a defensive matter, but it is in actuality a offensive development. In this case, BMD is a cardinal part of the Indian nuclear strategy of launching pre-emptive strikes on Pakistan’s counterforce targets while remaining immune from Pakistan’s retaliatory nuclear response.
Ababeel is a deterrent being developed to lessen Indian counterforce temptations, which are intensifying as the BMD program expands. This is noticeable in India’s efforts to diversify its delivery systems and persistent efforts to reduce the probability of circular error (CEP) accurately, thus reiterating the presence of a counterforce strategy. The progression of the Agni-P, a medium-range ballistic missile developed through the DRDO with a reported CEP of just 10 meters, illustrates India’s intentions.
Once India’s land- and sea-based interceptors become functional, they will disturb the mutual vulnerability that exists between both states by reducing the efficacy of a retaliatory strike. Last year’s firing of the AD-1 interceptor, and this year’s sea-based launch as part of Phase 2 trials of India’s BMD system, was an attempt by India to clear pathways for a first strike, thus eroding Pakistani deterrence. The demonstration of AD-1’s efficacy from both ground and maritime platforms will significantly enhance Indian capability to intercept missiles.
Therefore, Pakistan’s efforts to further expand and demonstrate Ababeel’s functions are aimed at keeping its risk credible and signal to India that Pakistan will defend its sovereignty and territoriality at any cost and will not submit to Indian coercion. The recent check demonstrates Pakistan’s determination to save India. destabilize the region through the creation and deployment of an effective MDB system.
In late October 2023, Pakistan tested an Abbeel missile for the first time since 2017. Pakistan’s decision to expand and test missiles capable of independent reentry vehicles (MIRVs) such as the Ababeel is in line with Pakistan’s policy of “full-spectrum deterrence as a component of Pakistan’s broad-spectrum deterrence policy. ” The saying is a credible minimum deterrent. The Ababeel, the Pakistani military explained in 2017, was developed to ensure the “survival of Pakistani ballistic missiles. “
The development of such MIRV capable missiles is a response to threat perceptions emerging from New Delhi, because of India’s efforts to develop and expand its ballistic missile defense (BMD) program. Islamabad fears that India’s operationalization of its BMD systems on land and at sea would significantly undermine Pakistan’s ability to retaliate to an Indian first strike. Pakistan is worried that the Indian BMD program, along with New Delhi’s enhanced missile capabilities, especially in terms of speed and precision, is part of an Indian strategy to launch counterforce strikes against Pakistan’s deterrent forces. Therefore, the goal of Ababeel’s development is to neutralize the threat that an operational Indian BMD system poses to Pakistan’s deterrent and ultimately to South Asia’s strategic stability.
Usman Haider is a study assistant at the Strategic Vision Institute, a tank based in Islamabad, and is pursuing a master’s degree in strategic studies at the National Defense University, Islamabad, Pakistan. Tweet @usman_ndu
Abdul Moiz Khan is a research officer at the Center for International Strategic Studies, a think tank based in Islamabad, and currently pursuing MPhil in International Relations from the Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan. He tweets at @kMoizSays