Our numbers may not give a complete picture of the coronavirus, the Chinese government said on Tuesday.
The existing global pandemic that began in Wuhan, the capital of Hubei, China, has hit complex economies hardest, at least for two. For the past two weeks, everyone has been wondering what’s going on here.
After ignoring warnings from Wuhan doctors for about four weeks about the new virus, Hubei ended the outbreak with 67,801 cases and 3,187 deaths.
By comparison, Italy is about a week away from the peak and has 101,739 and 11,591 deaths. And rising. . .
On Monday, President Trump reiterated what his physical care team was saying about COVID-19 deaths: 200,000 deaths is a success.
Why are China’s numbers so low?
One explanation for why may simply be that they only checked on other people who were in poor health and regularly did not check on family circle members or social circle members of patients in poor health. Since Hubei province is under strict quarantine, other asymptomatic people are less likely to spread the disease beyond their own household. Those who contracted it, but had mild symptoms, mild symptoms, or no symptoms at all, were not included (completely and giants) in the total number of infections.
Social distancing exists in Shanghai, but life goes on. Here, travelers are still required to wear protective masks in public, especially on trains. Photo taken March 31, 2020. (Photo by Yves Dean/Getty Images)
China’s National Health Commission (NHC) said on Tuesday it would include asymptomatic coronavirus carriers in its figures starting tomorrow.
So if China’s numbers increase in the coming days, that’s probably the reason. Either way, investors will be scared.
Officials said the new measures would address growing public considerations about the dangers of contracting COVID-19 from asymptomatic carriers, the South China Morning Post reported this morning.
The NHC said it would require local medical centers to report positive, but asymptomatic, cases to its central communicable disease reporting system. Asymptomatic Americans will need to isolate at home as if they had COVID-19.
The decision to gain more reliable knowledge comes at a time when the UK says China’s death toll and overall infection rate figures are wrong.
Countries are watching infection rates in Italy skyrocket, with no end in sight, even as infection rates have slowed as the country nears the peak of the coronavirus.
The maximum and immediate infection rates frightened the British, Spanish, French and Germans.
Volunteers deliver medical products and medicines to elderly people in Milan who are unable to leave home due to the coronavirus lockdown. (Photo by Davide Pischettola/NurPhoto Getty Images)
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo criticized China in an interview with Sean Hannity last night on FOX, saying his numbers were not accurate. China’s figures gave countries an idea of how many infections they were most likely to contract.
“When you hear (doctors) talk about threats and death and you think about how to model, what they want is knowledge. And they want knowledge of Italy, knowledge of China, knowledge of Iran,” Pompeo said. “We want each and every country to strive to take action and provide accurate and transparent information. And we can’t allow that if we have incorrect information instead. More lives will be at stake not only today but also in the coming weeks as we combat this enormous challenge. ” he added.
On Monday, the South China Morning Post quoted a Chinese fitness expert as saying that there is not enough evidence to prove that asymptomatic carriers can spread the disease.
China’s Containment Model
China’s figures may also be lower than those in Italy and the United States due to strict quarantine measures, imposed through a quasi-police state for two months. Hubei is just in the process of reopening.
Hubei province shut down in the third week of January. No one is allowed to leave the province or enter. Residents were under enforced quarantine and in February, Wuhan closed grocery stores, allowing other people to buy food through pre-approved channels. delivery drivers, according to municipal sources.
Wuhan remained a ghost town for months, helping to mitigate the spread of the virus.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo: You can’t take China’s coronavirus data for granted. (Photo via ANDREW. . . [ ] KNIGHT-REYNOLDS / AFP)
By comparison, Italy locked down the state of Lombardy and then the entire country a week later, in the first week of March.
The French kept moving in and out of Italy as the country went from about 20 cases to 200 in a weekend, then doubling exponentially every other day. The French closed their borders a few days after Italy, bringing them back at least a week.
The U. K. has also failed to stop underwater rail transit to France, even after the U. S. banned flights to 26 European countries for returning nationals and green card holders.
The UK now has more than 22,000 cases and more than 1,400 deaths. France has recorded more than 45,000 cases and more than 3,000 deaths. Both countries are two weeks away from peaking.
Lockdowns and social distancing are helping to prevent the spread.
It worked in South Korea, Taiwan and Singapore, all of which are gigantic smugglers of Chinese nationals.
The factor of asymptomatic carriers has been at the heart of the outbreak, with data from Italy suggesting that up to 25% of people who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 did not have the core symptoms of COVID-19. About 6% had no symptoms despite testing positive for the virus, according to the Journal of the American Medical Association.
One of Singapore’s most sensible doctors has said that asymptomatic carriers are spreaders.
“What we found was that we had very large teams of people in poor health and asymptomatic carriers coming out and spreading the disease,” said Dr. Vernon Lee, director of communicable diseases at Singapore’s Department of Public Health. Lee spoke last week on a convention call organized through Caixin Global, a Chinese publisher of monetary data.
Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases: “100,000 to 200,000 deaths from COVID-19 are possible,” he says. (Photo via MANDEL NGAN/AFP)
The main mode of transmission is droplets when talking, coughing or sneezing; touching dirty surfaces treated by people in poor health; and contracting it by asymptomatic transmission of the main modes discussed above.
The coronavirus is now the main determinant of the economy and investor confidence.
A UBS survey showed that 43% of its clients said they would only return to the market if it fell a further 5% to 20%, suggesting that for many investors the risk of the problem remains high.
All eyes are on Italy, which will reach its coronavirus peak next week and stabilize with more recoveries than new infections. This would give other European countries a relative timeline for when they can expect a peak, with a slowdown in infection rates.
About 3 million more people were laid off in the U. S. last week, and that number is expected to double in the coming weeks as the pandemic ravages global economies.
Three months after the outbreak, China’s economy is just beginning to show signs of life. More stimulus is on the way and the threat of a second outbreak in China remains a genuine threat at worst.