It’s a wonderful year for Iranian drone exports. Tehran has infamously provided Russia with loads of its Shahed-136 (self-detonating or “suicide”) vagrant munitions for use in the war in Ukraine. It reportedly struck a deal with Moscow that allows Russia to manufacture such drones locally, a deal that follows the inauguration in May of a factory in Tajikistan that will locally produce Iran’s oldest Ababil-2 drones. And, according to Iranian officials, a record number of other countries are eager to get their hands on Tehran’s unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
“Today we have reached a point where 22 countries in the world are not easy to buy drones from Iran,” Iranian Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi said on October 18. Among the countries he discussed were Serbia and Armenia.
A really extensive delivery of Iranian drones to those countries may have significant strategic ramifications for the Balkans and the South Caucasus. For example, if Serbia buys Iranian drones, “it can turn Belgrade into the largest army drone operator in the Balkans,” according to Defense News.
However, analysts are very skeptical that Belgrade is interested in Iranian drones, with a Serbian aviation editor noting that Serbia already has significant functions “to meet its own needs” and that “there is little Iran can supply in terms of finished UAV products or knowing how.
However, the low value of some Iranian drones ($20,000 is the figure often cited for each unit of the single-use Shahed-136) may cause Belgrade to diversify its arsenal by purchasing several of those drones. Or, Iran may simply be offering Serbia a deal for local production that could help expand Belgrade’s existing drone program at a relatively low cost.
TOPSHOT – A drone flies over Kiev an attack on October 17, 2022, amid the Russian invasion of Array. Ukrainian officials said on October 17, 2022 that the capital Kiev was attacked 4 times in an early morning Russian strike with Iranian drones that smashed a residential building and attacked the central exercise station. (Photo by Sergei SUPINSKY/AFP) (Photo by SERGEI SUPINSKY/AFP via Getty Images)
“Iran is building a robust market for its munitions drones that are lurking,” Nicholas Heras, director of strategy and innovation at the New Lines Institute, told me. “The expansion of global interest in Iranian drones is kind of an echo of how Turkey has developed the foreign market for its army drones. “
“The Turks have focused on a type of ‘middle class’ drone that is meant to be repurposed, is physically powerful and can work well in front of state and non-state actors,” he said. “For all intents and purposes, Turkey has to provide a ‘cheap air force’ to state actors seeking to avoid expensive aircraft and the maintenance desires that accompany them. “
“Iran has to corner the market for what is necessarily more accurate long-range flying artillery shells that can have devastating effects on the battlefield, especially opposed to ground forces. “
Such towed munitions may allow small States to exert a crude deterrent against their larger rivals.
“Armenians and Serbs want the ability to temporarily create significant losses for the most powerful adversaries (NATO for Serbia, Azerbaijan for Armenia) and the lie of Iranian munition-type drones can provide that ability,” Heras said.
Iran has several such types of drones that may be of interest to Belgrade and Yerevan.
“As for the type of drones Iran can sell to Armenia and Serbia, there are a number of features that come with the Shahed and Ababil models, as both have been used through Iranian proxies in the Middle East, and now Shahed has demonstrated his limited, but key, capability in Ukraine,” Samuel Bendett told me. studies analyst at the Center for Naval Analysis. “Other drones like Mohajer aren’t out of place either. “
Then there is the broader political and strategic context behind an Armenian supply imaginable.
“Armenia seeks to compensate for the strengthening of the Turkish-Azerbaijani military alliance and the belief that Russia would possibly not be as committed to Armenian defense as thought in the past,” Bennett said.
“While the Turkish and Israeli generation of drones contributed to Azerbaijan’s victory in 2020, Armenia was left off guard even though it has its own drone industry that has received insufficient investment in comparison,” he added. “Armenia, therefore, seeks to avoid this mistake by making an investment in drone capabilities. “
Tehran also has its own interests in militarily aiding Yerevan.
“Iran is also involved in the Turkish-Azeri alliance and the Israeli angle in that alliance and has claimed that before it can give its weight to Armenia in the next conflict,” Bennett said. “Iran has conducted army training closer to the Nagorno-Karabakh region. , indicated that it can use the force of the army if the ‘Zangezur corridor’ cuts off its access to Armenia proper, and is looking for its own way to compensate for the Turkey-Azerbaijan-Israel relationship. “
Therefore, Armenia, a visitor of Iranian drones, makes a lot of sense from this geostrategic point of view.
Yerevan also needs a generation of drones that have shown itself in combat, which may increase its interest in Tehran’s drones.
“Lurking Iranian drones like the Shahed-136/1 are an economic, high-impact investment of capability that can potentially pose a challenge to Azerbaijan and perhaps even Turkey itself,” Bennett said. “By promoting its drones in Armenia, Iran can warn Istanbul and Baku through this proxy sale to Yerevan. “
Any significant source of Iranian drones for Armenia, or the status quo of a drone factory on Armenian soil like the one in Tajikistan, can further boost the arms race in the volatile South Caucasus region.
“In terms of the overall effect of those sales on regional dynamics: in the Caucasus, all countries are already arming themselves with drone technology, whether imported or indigenous,” Bennett said. “Armenia’s acquisition of Iranian drones may simply bolster its defenses and may have a potential deterrent effect given that Shahed drones can strike targets many kilometers away. “
“The regional drone race is underway and is expected to slow down in the short term. “