Brazilian police killed another 27 people in a single raid. It doesn’t make Rio de Janeiro safer.
What is the existing scenario of distrust in Brazil and what does the electorate want?
According to the annual report of the Brazilian Forum on Public Security, in 2021, Brazil recorded 20. 4% of international murders, but the country represents only 2. 7% of the world’s population. The report states that 78% of murder victims in Brazil were black. and 50% were between 12 and 29 years old.
Concerns about non-public protection can determine voters’ preferences. I conducted an online survey in Latin America in March 2021, among 1500 Brazilians, with a pattern designed to approximate the population in terms of gender, age, socioeconomic prestige and region. My findings recommend that perceptions of lack of trust and belief that crime is gang-driven can lead even the most progressive electorate to help difficult criminal candidates. Other studies show that victimization has a similar effect and that impacts on the crime rate can increase the percentage of voting. of law enforcement candidates.
This makes crime and violence a vital factor for Brazilian politicians. Signals to the electorate that applicants will be tough on crime would likely pile up at the ballot box and most likely helped Bolsonaro win the 2018 election.
How do politicians act on this issue?
Research indicates that applicants for the 2022 election are campaigning on public protection in 3 main ways.
First, the accumulation in the number of active and retired law enforcement officials for election is a strong signal. Some applicants register with their professional titles to speak of their position to the electorate; examples come with “Colonel Salema” or “Sergeant Clemente” Research indicates that using professional names can help increase the likelihood of choice. This phenomenon is not only diminishing among conservatives: in the state of Bahia, a policeman and member of the Left Workers’ Party is running for office as “Mayor Denice. “.
Brazil’s president gathers his base, so that he can his power
Second, experts from Brazil’s Network of Security Observatories have drawn attention to other, more violent strategies that politicians can use. For example, the re-election of gubernatorial candidates appears to be deploying police at a faster pace to combat criminal groups. My interviews with politicians and experts recommend that this is an effort to show a commitment to cracking down on crime.
Here’s an example, in Rio de Janeiro, where the number of police operations increased by 18% in the months leading up to the election, compared to the same time in 2021. Rio Governor Cláudio Castro, a Bolsonaro supporter, is re-elected and has applauded police operations. He says they are fighting organized crime groups.
My studies suggest that left-wing candidates are also running to capture the votes of citizens involved in security issues, adding centrist electorate and those who think typical left-wing approaches are too “soft. “These candidates divert their attention from human rights coverage. and crime prevention: campaigning for greater investment in policing, increasing salaries, and increasing spending on intelligence and technology.
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Some applicants have even completely replaced their political priorities. Rio de Janeiro’s main progressive governor, Marcelo Freixo of the Brazilian Socialist Party, has built his career fighting for human rights. But Freixo recently changed course, speaking out against drug legalization and explaining why. It is vital to “put criminals in jail. “
Focus on crime severity is troubling
This election season, this has had transparent short-term consequences. And there are significant long-term consequences.
In the short term, campaigning to appear tough on crime has taken its toll: In May alone, another 41 people were killed in police operations in Rio de Janeiro, adding 22 in the deadliest police operation in the city at the time. This underlines the importance of restrictions on crime. Competitive police operations, which recent studies suggest can particularly control the use of force, and killings through police, and lead to a reduction in civilian homicides.
In the long term, experts point to a number of conceivable negative consequences of the overrepresentation of law enforcement officials in politics. non-white men, by favoring the allocation of police and state resources to the communities that voted for them. In addition, my interviews recommend that law enforcement applicants’ investment in crime “prevention” efforts occasionally translates into an investment in military youth schools. .
More broadly, if Brazilians elect candidates who claim to be tougher on crime, it would be a tough and consistent message from voters. This result would constitute continued citizen aid for policies that studies show have little or no proven effectiveness, and presidential aid that has nearly tripled civilian gun ownership in three years. Moreover, it could mean greater threats to Brazilian democracy, an imaginable moment of Bolsonaro’s presidency and the search for a repressive method for public security.
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Isabel Laterzo (@IsabelLaterzo) is a doctoral candidate in political science at the University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill and a Fulbright-Hays DDRA Scholar. The perspectives expressed in this article are those of Isabel Laterzo and do not constitute the perspectives of the Fulbright, U. S. Department of Education, or Fulbright programs. The U. S. or any of its partner organizations.