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Critics of the Trump administration’s sanctions crusade opposed to Iran have long argued that the Islamic Republic is immune from pressure. This statement never had a forged basis: after all, over-pressure (prolonged diplomatic isolation, along with crippling economic sanctions) forced Tehran’s theocrats to participate in the negotiations that led to the 2015 nuclear deal. with global powers.
More evidence, if necessary, of Iran’s vulnerability to tension came here this week, when the regime pledged to expand cooperation with international atomic energy agency inspectors. The announcement came shortly after the United Nations nuclear control agency rebuked Iran for not giving in to two sites where nuclear activity is believed to have been in place in the past.
On Wednesday, during a stopover in Tehran through IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi, the regime said it had agreed to give inspectors access to any of the sites. been agreed.
The statement allows Iran to claim that it has “voluntarily” ceded to the sites. Grrossi is likely to draw a curtain on some of Iran’s questionable peak habits in past inspections: In October, Tehran bizarrely claimed that an IAEA inspector had tried to smuggle explosives into the Natanz enrichment facility, but Grossi reserves the right to open the curtain.
The articulation is loaded with warnings: “In this existing context, based on research into available data,” the IAEA has no additional questions for Iran or new requests for access. Speaking to reporters in Vienna about his return from Tehran, Grossi said he might believe that new applications can be made if he is presented with more information about suspicious activity. This data may come from inspections or disclosures through foreign intelligence agencies, those of the United States, and Israel at the top of the top that pay special attention to Iran’s nuclear program.
President Hassan Rohani said the IAEA agreement showed that “Iran is in a position to work hard with the firm within the guarantee frameworks. “The interpretation is addressed to the United Nations Security Council, where Trump’s leadership persists in a doomed effort to re-impose foreign sanctions prior to 2015. Rohani hopes that the other signatories of the nuclear agreement will use Tehran’s cooperation with the IAEA to strengthen its argument against the so-called “backtracking”.
Warning observers will recognize that cooperation has been forced. Grrossi himself under pressure that the announcement is “the result of a cursed and systematic dialogue,” a tough diplomat.
To be sure, Trump’s leadership will interpret this result as an argument to keep tehran’s regime in a shirt of economic and diplomatic strength. If, as expected, efforts to “restore” foreign sanctions fail, the United States will most likely tighten its own sanctions. to punish corporations and Americans for doing business with Iran.
Long before the coronavirus pandemic, U. S. sanctions had hampered Iran’s economy; The Covid-19 crisis has greatly disturbed the pain. The official death toll is close to 20,000, but the actual figure is 3 times higher. Even an inventory market bubble can’t mask sadness. Saeed Laylaz, a prominent economist from Tehran who said less than a year ago that Iran’s economy is “stabilizing,” now admits that the country has not been under such strain since the 13th-century Mongol invasion.
Even the regime’s precious nuclear program has been sabotage, as evidenced by last month’s explosion in Natanz. Grrossi and his inspectors would definitely like to take a closer look.
The regime will do its best to approve the new agreement with the IAEA as an argument to weaken Iran a little. But it is to hide the truth that the Islamic Republic is giving in under pressure.
Bobby Ghosh is an opinion columnist for Bloomberg. Il writing on foreign affairs, with a column on the Middle East and Africa.
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