The battlefield
Several spaces in Ukraine are still under Russian assault, even as Ukrainian forces gain momentum with an effective counteroffensive, pushing to retake captured territories through Russia. of Russian troops by order of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu. While Ukrainian President Zelenskyy defended some other victory, the Kremlin warned that Kherson’s prestige had not changed, despite the withdrawal, saying the city remained “part of Russia. “
The Russians are unlikely to permanently abandon Kherson or any of the 3 regions that Moscow recently “annexed”. -War hand with the Ukrainians, after having lost so many men and so much military equipment. The withdrawal is a possible ruse to lure Ukrainian troops into a radioactive chamber. Russian Spetsnaz agents reportedly left an unsightly message on the door of one of the buildings. . Addressed to Ukrainians, the message warned that it was “the territory of the Russian Empire,” that Putin was “ours and your tsar” and that Russian troops were going “on vacation. “
PUTIN’S CYBER-ARMAGEDDON DOCTRINE SEEKS TO EXTEND RUSSIA’S OFFENSE BEYOND THE BATTLEFIELD
For weeks, Moscow accused Kyiv of making plans to use a “dirty bomb,” also known as a radiological dispersion device (RDD), an improvised nuclear device containing dynamite combined with radioactive dust. Unlike classic nuclear bombs, RDDs come at a low military price. However, they produce panic and terror in the opposing force and population. They cause severe burns, radiation sickness, and contaminate food and water. Expelling Ukrainians from the region through contamination would be in line with Russia’s recent top military doctrine, which envisages the use of radiation, chemical and biological warfare for “defensive” purposes. The Russians have a special wing of the army, the Radiological, Chemical and Biological Defense Forces (RKhBZ), which are trained in decontamination and cleanup.
A new oblique strategy
Russia has still exhausted its traditional combat power, having fired some 4,000 missiles and, according to the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, has lost another 100,000 people killed or wounded. Morale is low. Special sets were sent to the front to fire on infantrymen and retreating deserters. Several Russian commanders failed to victory.
However, despite Washington’s expectations, Putin will not give up the fight. His regime considers the existential stakes for it and for Russia. Moscow needs Ukraine to stay within its strategic security perimeter, which it has relied on for centuries. Putin will continue to apply his edition of the Monroe Doctrine to keep NATO troops and influence out of a country that has a 1400-mile border with Russia.
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As part of the new “asymmetrical” strategy, Moscow is targeting critical infrastructure to leave Ukrainians without water, electricity and heating as winter approaches. The movements of missiles and drones in Kyiv’s power grid have left part of a million homes without electricity. The local government has evacuation plans if the city becomes uninhabitable.
40% of the country’s electricity infrastructure has been paralyzed and several industries have suffered devastating cyberattacks. A loss of electrical power will lead to a lack of water, leading to sewage disruptions that will spread disease. blow up the Nova Kakhovka hydroelectric dam to cause major flooding in southern Ukraine. Add to that a dirty bomb in Kherson, and much of the country will be an environmental disaster. The main objective in this phase of the war is the population, its mental state and its will to fight.
The stability of Putin and the regime
Endless rumors abound about Putin’s physical and intellectual decline, from thyroid and pancreatic cancer to Parkinson’s disease, a mysterious intellectual illness caused by COVID-related isolation, and more. It is impossible, even for US intelligence, to assess Putin’s physical condition with wonderful accuracy. . Putin is taking excessive measures, adding that requiring his workers’ security forces to collect feces and urine when he travels to data on his physical condition. There is no credible evidence that Putin suffers from a chronic disease such as cancer. Instead, Putin seems “pretty much too fitness,” as CIA Director William Burns recently put it.
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Two weeks ago, the Russian strongman presented a three-hour performance, adding a speech and questions and answers, at the annual foreign convention “Valdai” organized across Russia. Putin looked lucid, energetic, confident and looked healthy. There is no credibility. evidence to recommend the imminent collapse of the Putin regime, its overthrow or its forced retirement to a sanatorium.
What the Long Term Holds
Putin is in favor of a long-term and even total war, waiting for NATO intervention. Moscow mobilized another 318,000 troops and imposed fundamental military education in the best school. It has expanded military cooperation with Iran and North Korea to fill their shrinking arms supply. . Russia is setting up bomb shelters, educating police on war protocols and conducting emergency evacuation drills.
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The Biden administration’s solution to the Russian-Ukrainian challenge has been to impose more sanctions on Russia, deprive some other Russian oligarch of his yacht or palace, and send billions in aid to Ukraine. This is naïve and simplistic. The question of the post-Soviet zone has been simmering since the collapse of the USSR in 1991, and the balance of forces in Eurasia has been questioned for centuries. Therefore, victory is not just around the corner, nor will it be explained by the president. That Washington’s status quo is dragging America into a new geopolitical experiment while Ukrainians are being massacred and their ruined country is irresponsible and dangerous.
We are dealing with a nuclear force that is predisposed to think in the worst-case scenario and will invoke the worst possible situation before accepting defeat in Ukraine.
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Rebekah Koffler is the president of Doctrine