Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un say a new strategic partnership is a first step forward, but it is still unclear what its impact will be on their relationship.
The agreement calls for the two countries to use all available means to quickly provide military assistance in the event of war, according to North Korea’s state media. While the agreement, signed Wednesday at a summit in Pyongyang, would possibly constitute the most powerful agreement signed between the two countries since the Cold War, reviews differ on the strength of the security commitment.
Kim claimed that the agreement increased bilateral relations to the point of an alliance, while Putin was more discreet and did not call it an alliance.
North Korean state media published the text of the agreement, which also includes broader cooperation in the military, foreign policy and industrial fields. Russia has published its edition of the text.
Relations between sprawling Russia and small, remote North Korea — both nuclear powers — have improved significantly in recent years, amid Russia’s growing acrimony with the West over the country’s invasion. Ukraine and the repression of all internal opposition.
One of the first repercussions of the deal came on Thursday, when the South Korean government announced it would reconsider its policy of restricting its shipments to Ukraine to non-lethal supplies. South Korea, a developing arms exporter, has provided humanitarian aid to Ukraine but has not provided weapons directly.
Here’s a look at what we know about the new partnership and what’s still unclear.
What did Russia and North Korea promise?
The main component of the debate on the association agreement revolves around the article promising mutual aid. According to North Korean state media, the segment says that if one of the countries is invaded and brought to a state of war, the other will have to deploy “all means at its disposal without delay” to provide “military and security assistance. ” another type”.
But it also specifies that such moves will have to be in accordance with the legislation of either country and Article 51 of the UN Charter, which recognizes the right of self-defense of a UN member state.
To some analysts, it looks like a promise that either country would interfere if the other attacks, renewing a commitment made under a 1961 treaty between North Korea and the bloc. This agreement was abandoned after the collapse of the USSR and was replaced in 2000 by an agreement that provided weaker security guarantees.
Cheong Seong Chang, an analyst at South Korea’s Sejong Institute, said the agreement echoes the language of the 1961 treaty, as well as provisions of the U. S. -South Korea Mutual Defense Treaty related to the activation of channels of coordination if any of them face a risk of invasion. .
“North Korea and Russia have re-established their Cold War-era military alliance,” Cheong said.
Other experts have been more cautious, saying the article is conscientiously written to avoid involving automatic interventions and strictly limits the cases in which either country would be forced to intervene. And the language of the agreement is far less vital than what each country is capable of doing. and they are willing to do so, said Du Hyeogn Cha, an analyst at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul.
While it is rare for a defense treaty to specify in particular that a country must interfere to protect an attacked partner, the strength of that commitment can be signaled through other means, such as the way the United States is stationing thousands of troops in South Korea and coordinating strongly with its best friend on education and weapons systems. Cha said. But Russia, for example, has no military presence in North Korea, and the two countries have no established history of joint military activities and coordination, other than alleged transfers of ammunition from the North to Russia.
The fact that the article invokes the countries’ national laws and the United Nations Charter may simply reflect that Russia has attempted to restrict its legal responsibility to protect itself to very narrow conditions: when it is transparent that North Korea incited the aggression, An attack on the North is legally considered a war in Russia, and Russia’s defense of the North is justified through the UN, Cha said.
“The agreement is a symbolic promise of expanding cooperation, but it leaves a lot of room for interpretation when it is put into practice,” Cha said. “The biggest fear about the summit is not whether or not [Russia] participates in an automatic army. intervention, but the imaginable expansion of North Korean arms transfers to Russia and generation transfers from the Russian army to the North. “
What kind of military cooperation is possible?
Putin said he would rule out “the advancement of military-technical cooperation with the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea in accordance with the document signed today. “
This is really formalizing everything that Western countries claim is already happening.
The United States and other allies say Russia has won ballistic missiles and ammunition from North Korea as the war in Ukraine depletes Moscow’s stockpile, and that Russia has made generational transfers to Pyongyang, which could increase the risk posed by Kim’s nuclear weapons and missile program. .
North Korean state media also said the deal required the countries to take steps to improve their joint defense capabilities, but did not specify what those steps would be or whether they would come with combined military training.
The agreement also calls on the countries to actively cooperate in efforts to identify a “just and multipolar new global order,” the North’s Korean Central News Agency said, highlighting how the countries are aligning themselves while facing separate and escalating confrontations with United States and its allies.
“Russia and North Korea will most likely keep the main points of this cooperation close to their chest, but the agreement is a way to let the world, and specifically the United States and its allies, know that they will work together,” Ankit said. . Panda, senior analyst at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
What is the economic benefit of the pact?
The partnership also calls for the progression of economic ties, a factor of specific importance to North Korea, which is under a series of foreign sanctions. North Korea wants food, trade materials and other goods and, in turn, can supply labor for the war-depleted Russian workforce. These personnel could then convert their salaries into rubles, dollars or euros, potentially becoming a source of hard currency that North Korea desperately wants.
Such activities would violate UN sanctions. Hours before he arrived in North Korea, Putin promised in an op-ed that the countries would triumph together over sanctions. Russia is under Western sanctions for its invasion of Ukraine.
Putin said industry turnover between Russia and North Korea had increased nine-fold in the past year, but admitted the amount itself remained “modest. “
Kim and Heintz write for the Associated Press. Heintz reported from Tallinn, Estonia.
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