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Scientists and spy agencies have been investigating the origin of the coronavirus, but conclusive evidence is hard to find and the country’s intelligence agencies are divided.
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By Sheryl Gay Stolberg and Benjamin Mueller
WASHINGTON — The Energy Department’s “low confidence” conclusion that an accidental lab leak at China’s maximum likely caused the coronavirus pandemic has renewed questions about what triggered the worst public fitness crisis in a century, and whether the virus at the center was linked to clinical research.
Scientists and spy agencies have assiduously attempted this question, but conclusive evidence is hard to find. The country’s intelligence agencies are divided and none of them have replaced their findings after seeing the Energy Ministry’s findings, officials said.
Scientists who have studied the genetics of the virus and the patterns of its spread say the maximum likely cause is that the virus passed from living mammals to humans, a clinical phenomenon known as “zoonotic overflow,” at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan. Porcelana. la locality in which the first cases of Covid-19 appeared at the end of 2019.
But other scientists say there is evidence, albeit circumstantial, that the virus came from a lab, likely from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which had extensive experience researching the coronavirus. Laboratory injuries occur; In 2014, following injuries related to bird flu and anthrax, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention strengthened its biosecurity practices.
The debate is politically charged. The lab leak theory gained traction among Republicans in the spring of 2020 after President Donald J. Trump, who has used inflammatory language to blame China for the pandemic, stuck to the idea. Many Democrats were not convinced by the speculation of a lab leak; Some say that in explaining the herbal causes, and others say that possibly there would never be enough intelligence to draw a conclusion.
The Energy Department’s findings have emboldened House Republicans, who are investigating the origins of the pandemic. But outside of politics, experts say understanding what caused a public health crisis that killed nearly seven million people could help. Researchers figure out how to save you the next one.
Here’s what we know and don’t know about the origins of the coronavirus.
It’s difficult to pinpoint the origin of viruses, but China has compounded this challenge by making it very difficult to collect evidence.
When Chinese investigators arrived to take samples from the Huanan market, police had closed and disinfected the market as several other people connected to it had fallen from what would later be identified as Covid. There were no live animals left on the market.
Some scientists also say China has provided an incomplete picture of early covid cases. snapshot of the propagation.
Experts have tried to paint around the holes in the data.
The scientists looked at cases of hospitalized patients before the call was made for doctors to look for links to the market. They also mapped the locations of the first Covid cases in Wuhan, adding other people who were first connected to the market and those who were not, and discovered what they say are symptoms that the virus has begun to spread in the market.
Some of those same scientists studied maps of where researchers discovered the virus in the Huanan market, adding walls, floors and other surfaces, and found that those samples were clustered in a market domain where animals were sold.
And separate genetic analyses from the early stages of the pandemic, some scientists said, recommend that the virus be spread twice to other people running or buying groceries at the market.
Other scientists have questioned whether studies like these can pinpoint the origin of an ad with great confidence. They said, for example, that evidence of two distinct market effects may also be evidence that the virus evolves as it spreads from one user to another.
How Times reporters cover politics. We depend on our news hounds to be independent observers. Therefore, while Times staff members can vote, they are not allowed to participate in campaigns or crusades on behalf of candidates or political causes. candidate or electoral cause.
Some have also argued that, despite all the attention paid to the Wuhan Institute of Virology, not enough attention has been paid to another study site in the city, the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention. This center is much closer to Huanan Market. .
In October, Republicans on the Senate Health Committee released an investigation into the origins of the pandemic that stated it was “most likely the result of an investigation-related incident,” though they acknowledged that the conclusion was “not intended to be determinative. “
The report highlighted what its authors described as holes in the theory of herbs’ origins, as well as “persistent biosafety issues” at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. However, the report relied largely on existing public evidence, rather than new or classified information. , and presented no evidence to show that the Wuhan institute was storing in its collections a virus that could have become the virus that causes Covid-19, with or without clinical touch-ups.
Speculation of a lab leak is bolstered, according to the report, by the absence of published evidence that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes covid-19, was circulating in animals before the pandemic. Virus samples taken from refrigerators, counters and other surfaces at the Huanan market were genetically similar to human samples, suggesting the virus is excreted through humans and not animals, he said.
But some experts said the inability to locate an inflamed animal proved nothing, as China shut down the market and killed all its animals before they could be examined.
In 2018, before the pandemic, the Wuhan Institute and its partners, plus EcoHealth Alliance, a U. S. -funded think tank, were able to participate in the Wuhan Institute. The U. S. Department of Defense requested an investment from the Department of Defense to collect coronaviruses with novel features that would make them highly transmissible in humans. .
The organization’s allocation was never funded. But the report highlighted this proposition, noting that the virus that causes covid-19 has similar characteristics to what researchers were looking for. This convinced some scientists that a lab leak was possible. The Senate Republican report speculated that the virus may have escaped. – perhaps by infecting a researcher who then took it out of the lab.
The National Institutes of Health paid for some of the EcoHealth Alliance’s work in Wuhan, but NIH officials have continually claimed that viruses studied with U. S. taxpayer dollars bear no genetic resemblance to the one that causes covid-19. But Dr. Lawrence A. Tabak, acting director of the NIH, testified at a recent congressional hearing that he didn’t know what other paintings the Wuhan institute was doing.
In May 2021, several months after taking office, President Biden ordered the nation’s intelligence agencies to conduct a 90-day investigation into the cause of the pandemic. The findings of that review were published in August 2021 and reaffirmed what the agencies had done in the past. He said: The theory of herbal origins and the theory of laboratory leakage were plausible.
At the time, Biden called on China to be more transparent about what led to the emergence of the virus there in late 2019.
The Energy Department’s new conclusion is based on data that isn’t publicly available, so it’s unclear what explains the change. But the department’s use of the term “low confidence” indicates that its point of certainty is not high. The FBI, however, concluded with “moderate confidence” that the virus came out of a lab.
Four other intelligence agencies and the National Intelligence Council have concluded, with little confidence, that the maximum maximum of the virus likely arose through herbal transmission. The CIA, the country’s main spy agency, has taken a stand and remains undecided.
House Republicans have been looking to investigate the origins of the pandemic and gather evidence that can also shed light on what caused it, adding whether China withheld information about the initial outbreak and what investigations would have funded U. S. dollars in Wuhan.
Now that Republicans are in office in the House, that investigative work is intensifying in several committees, the Intelligence Committee, the Energy and Commerce Committee and the Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic. The subcommittee will hold its first hearing on the source factor on March 8, a spokeswoman said.
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