Last year, after coronavirus restrictions were lifted around the world, foreign tourism returned to 90% of pre-pandemic levels, according to the World Tourism Organization.
But it’s also a year of upheaval, with mistakes – whether natural or man-made – disrupting travel, from wildfires to social strife to technological glitches.
With the year 2023 in the rearview mirror, let’s take a look at what travelers will face in 2024.
Will Airline Prices Finally Drop?
A record 4. 7 billion passengers are expected to arrive globally in 2024, up from the previous record of 4. 5 billion in 2019, according to the International Air Transport Association. Analysts at American Express Global Business Travel say the average price of ticket costs across all regions is not expected to increase. replace significantly. But in the U. S. , domestic and foreign airfares are expected to move in opposite directions.
Hayley Berg, senior economist at booking platform Hopper, predicts that over the next six months, domestic airfare will be charged less than in 2023 and pre-pandemic years. Travelers booking domestic flights in February can expect to pay an average roundtrip. The fee is around $276, down 8% from the same month last year. The reasons for reducing charges come from the expansion of aircraft capacity (the number of seats in a given direction) and the fall in jet fuel charges.
“January will be the cheapest month of the year to book travel until the fall shoulder season in September and October,” Berg said. “Airfare will rise into late spring as the spring break and summer travel period heat up.”
International airfares from the U. S. U. S. sales increased by 10% by 2024 compared to 2023, according to Kayak, a search engine. But airline capacity, Berg said, is expanding and could eventually curb that price increase.
Overall, the outlook for airfares this year is a return to normal, said aviation analyst Robert W. Mann Jr.
“Revenge travel” and the volatility in airfare that has characterized the last few years are “basically in the rearview mirror,” he said. And ebbing demand for leisure travel might mean more excess capacity, further driving prices down.
— CHRISTINE CHUNG
How will AI replace my vacation this year?
It is hard to believe that it has only been about a year since travelers started dabbling in ChatGPT-created itineraries. This year will bring even more experimentation and innovation. “AI is like a teenage intern,” said Chad Burt, co-owner of the travel adviser network Outside Agents, “better, smarter, faster than you, but you need to lead them.”
The ever-increasing use of artificial intelligence could affect how we book online, what happens when flights are canceled or delayed, and even the price we pay for tickets.
“In 2024, we will see a new generation of intelligent agents that will rely on chatbots,” said Oren Etzioni, professor emeritus of computer science at the University of Washington. This means that visitors will start interacting with sites like Airbnb, Expedia, and Priceline by typing questions in addition to checking boxes to search for accommodations, restaurants, and amenities like pools.
AI will also force what happens in scenes at airlines and airports, said Gilbert Ott, Point’s director of partnerships. I’m helping travelers locate flights to acquire reward points. For example, it could simply improve automatic rebooking on new flights when consumers miss connections or weather tangles runways. At United Airlines, for example, smarter software can offer rebooking features and vouchers for meals and accommodations when a flight is canceled, rather than simply rebooking a flight.
On the ground, AI software will inform more decisions made by humans, such as how to reposition baggage carts and staff as much as possible in reaction to tight connections or flight delays.
Finally, AI systems trained on broader, more up-to-date knowledge sets will allow airlines’ dynamic ticket-pricing algorithms to better use data like weather forecasts and visitor searches to qualify as much as they can while continuing to fill planes. At the same time, corporations like online company Hopper, which claims to use 70 trillion pieces of data in its value forecasting model, continue to solve the challenge on the other side, in a kind of AI-driven arms race between airlines and customers.
– JULIE HERBE
Will passports be replaced by biometrics?
Next year, the use of biometrics — physical identifiers unique to an individual, such as fingerprints and faces — will expand at airports in the U. S. and abroad, a move aimed at increasing security and replacing physical IDs such as passports and driver’s licenses. and the time it takes travelers to cross airports. Biometric generation will be visual everywhere, from baggage drop-off at check-in counters to national security checks.
In the United States, the Transportation Security Administration is expanding its program allowing passengers to opt in for a security screening relying on a facial recognition match with their physical identification — a photo taken in real-time is compared against a scan of a license or passport and assists the TSA officer in verifying a traveler’s identity. This program is currently available at 30 airports nationwide, including Salt Lake City International Airport and Denver International Airport; the TSA said it will expand to more than 400 airports in the coming years.
TSA PreCheck travelers flying Delta Air Lines may not even want to show their ID at baggage drop and security if they opt for Delta’s virtual ID program.
The program, which compares a photograph taken at the airport with one from a database of trusted travelers (compiled through U. S. Customs and Border Protection), compares a photo taken at the airport to one of the most important aspects of the program. It takes about 40 seconds to complete, said Greg Forbes, Delta’s general manager of airport experience. it will now be available at five airports, including La Guardia Airport and Los Angeles International Airport.
Internationally, Singapore’s Changi Airport plans to embrace facial popularity generation for departing passengers, without requiring them to present their passports.
Neville Pattinson, head of biometrics business progression in North America at Thales, a global generation company, said travelers will begin to become more familiar with the use of biometrics.
“We’re finding that the ER requires a lot less interaction, which makes things less stressful and more fluid,” Pattinson said. “We’re seeing biometrics help the industry deal with the backlog in emergency rooms and the need to treat other people faster. ” . »
—Christine Chung
Where are other people going this year?
London; Rome; Tokyo; Las Vegas; and Cancun, Mexico, among the destinations with the biggest scale in 2023, are still among the most sensible places users are looking to stop this year, according to the sites Kayak and Hopper.
Beach destinations like the Cayman Islands and French Polynesia are also trending destinations for 2024.
“Americans are looking to laugh in the sun,” said Laura Lindsay, a global trends expert at search engine Skyscanner. “Our knowledge shows that they are looking for destinations that offer equivalent opportunities for outdoor rest and adventure. “
After the extreme weather events of 2023 and crowding in popular destinations, travelers also prefer cooler, less crowded places.
Those hoping to avoid the scorching heat that hit southern Europe last summer are looking to Scandinavian countries such as Norway and Denmark, advisers say, and airlines such as Air Canada and American Airlines are rolling out new routes to meet demand.
“Two of my favorite places in the domain are Bergen and Flam in Norway, with amazing food, markets, and scenery,” said Joshua Smith, founder of Global Citizen Journeys, a company that caters to millennials.
As interest in Scandinavia grows, Smith said the priority for most of his clients is to book top destinations such as Italy and France, as long as there are hotels. Once tickets sell out, expect bookings in Scandinavia to grow rapidly.
Smith also recommends Malta. ” From its history and architecture to its cuisine, Malta maintains the comforts of Europe with a strong tourism infrastructure, but at the same time the crowds. “
Another option advised by advisors is Slovenia. ” Because it’s less well-known, it’s much less expensive and less crowded,” said Laurel Brunvoll, owner of Unforgettable Trips, a Maryland-based agency.
While Brunvoll consumers prefer off-the-beaten-path destinations, they also book popular destinations such as Italy, Spain, Portugal, France, and Great Britain via email. Destinations farther afield, such as Egypt and India, are also gaining traction, as are polar tours and cruises around the world, he said.
In North America, one of the most anticipated events is the total solar eclipse on April 8. Popular places to view the path of totality include the Mazatlán coast of Mexico; Cape Girardeau, Missouri, with its hiking trails, bike paths and nature center; and scenic Niagara Falls, New York.
Texas is also expected to be the epicenter of the occasion and, with its diversity of landscapes, festivals and other activities in places like Burnet, Sulphur Springs and Lampasas, could attract as many as 700,000 visitors, according to the Texas cartographer. he eclipsed Michael Zeiler, who tracked the likelihood of visits in the regions.
-CEYLAN YEGINSU
Will hotels be able to outcompete rents in the fight for accommodations after all?
In cities from New York to Vienna, new short-term restrictions, designed for the availability of housing for citizens, are poised to hit hotel bottom lines. In New York in November, a while after Airbnb and others limited themselves to stays of 30 days or more, hotel occupancy rose 6% and rates rose 8%, according to real estate advertising firm CoStar.
However, travelers who travel remotely still prefer rentals, which remain in rural spaces where there are more rentals than hotels.
“We’ve seen the strongest demand in small and midsize cities, coastal and mountain locations, and areas outside of major urban centers,” said Jamie Lane, the senior vice president of analytics and chief economist at AirDNA, a market research firm that specializes in short-term rentals. “Hotel supply is primarily in larger urban centers or along interstates,” he added.
Though rentals are expected to account for just over 15% of lodging demand in 2024, compared with about 12% before the pandemic, they have profoundly challenged hotels. In response, hotels have adopted more residential features.
“Hotels have taken a page from the short-term playbook and said, ‘We want our restaurants open to the public and we want rooms not to be beige boxes,’” said Jan Freitag, the national director for hospitality analytics at CoStar. “On the amenities side, the room that used to be a place to crash now has to serve as an office.”
With features like kitchenettes and expanded living rooms, extended-stay hotels are booming. New brands debuting this year include Marriott’s MidX Studios, LivSmart Studios through Hilton and Hyatt Studios.
“We’ve never realized that we’re competing with hotels,” said David Whiteside, chief operating officer of Onefinestay, which rents out high-end homes and apartments with concierge services. It was acquired through Accor Hotels in 2016. There will be times when a hotel will be the best choice for a family member or an individual, and sometimes a house, villa or cabin will be the best choice. “
Meanwhile, hotels rely on what sets them apart most: the human element.
Makarand Mody, an associate professor of hotel marketing at Boston University, noted that “some appreciate the service of hotels, where they overshadow rentals. “
ELAINE GLUSAC
Will this be the year I use my numbers to travel?
The question of whether to save or spend miles takes on new urgency this year as lawmakers revise the Credit Card Competition Act. The law targets transaction fees (2-3% of a sale) that stores pay to credit card companies such as Visa and Mastercard. Fares are used in part through corporations to run loyalty systems that give cardholders issues that can be redeemed for things like flights and hotels.
The law proposes to allow stores a less expensive formula that would reduce fees. Critics, adding banks and airlines, which make billions promoting co-branded credit cards, argue that a less expensive formula, subsidized through retail giants like Walmart and Target, will turn rewards programs upside down.
Whether the legislation will succeed is unknown.
“This has been one of the biggest lobbying battles of all time, pitting two massive sectors against each other: retail and banking,” said Brian Kelly, founder of Points Guy, a site that helps users maximize their praise and opposition issues. the Law.
Does the law threaten your points? Not right away, said Leigh Rowan of Savanti Travel, a private monitoring service. “Assuming it’s approved, we still have a long way to go from then until the bill is approved,” he said. “There is no urgency to do anything in 2024. “
Still, experts still advise spending points instead of saving.
“Never hoard,” said Kelly, explaining that airlines and hotels have the leeway to change their redemption values overnight, and to keep up with the growth of points, they tend to increase the total needed to get a flight or hotel room. “Over time, the points you have today generally lose value.”
Rowan suggests diversifying your credit cards from an airline card, for example, where you can only redeem emissions with that airline, to a more physically powerful card like the Chase Sapphire Preferred card that has redemption partnerships with airlines, hotels, and rental cars. . enterprises.
“Diversification will be necessary in any case, especially if this law passes,” Rowan said.
Will my next step be to exercise instead of flying?
Train enthusiasts and carbon-conscious travelers are spoilt for choice this year, especially in Europe. While some European governments are considering banning short-haul flights, many passengers are already opting for rail, where there are many new connections.
Nightjet, a component of the Austrian Federal Railways ÖBB, began operating an overnight exercise between Berlin and Paris in December, while French rail operator SNCF introduced an overnight service between Paris and Aurillac in south-central France the same month. Paris and Nice are also in service. Italian rail operator Trenitalia recently introduced a weekly high-speed service between Rome and the station serving the Pompeii Archaeological Park.
Other new European routes include an overnight service between Brussels and Prague, scheduled for late March, and an overnight service between Brussels and Bratislava, Slovakia, scheduled for late this year or early next year. Trenitalia also operates on a high-speed service between Paris and Barcelona, Spain, with a possible connection to Madrid, as well as a direct link between Milan and Ljubljana, Slovenia; No start date has been set for any of the services.
Looking for a luxury experience? The Orient Express La Dolce Vita will offer itineraries through Italy beginning in November. Backed by the French conglomerate Accor, the service will emphasize design and fine dining and will take visitors to places like Palermo, Portofino, Rome, and Siena.
Asia-bound travelers also have luxury options with two new itineraries on the Eastern & Oriental Express. Each route starts and ends in Singapore and takes travelers on a three-night trip through Malaysia. In March, Japan will offer an extended bullet train service from Tokyo to Fukui prefecture, home to a 13th-century Buddhist temple, coastal cliffs and a dinosaur museum.
In the U. S. , Amtrak’s new fleet of high-speed trains could soon enter service in the Northeast Corridor, although no date has been set for entry into service. The trains will reach speeds of 160 mph, compared to the existing 150 mph.
As of last month, Brightline — a privately owned intercity operator — has been running 16 round-trip trains every day between Orlando, Florida, and Miami. Looking ahead, Brightline is planning a high-speed route between Las Vegas and Los Angeles, a project that won $3 billion in federal support late last year. Organizers hope the service will begin in time for the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles.
-PAIGE MCCLANAHAN
Will tourists return to the Middle East?
Travelers appear to be slowly returning to some Middle Eastern countries despite the ongoing standoff between Israel and Hamas that has still decimated tourism in the region since it began on Oct. 7.
Travel operators said bookings to countries including Egypt, Jordan, and Oman are growing, welcome news for an area that’s dependent on tourist dollars and one that had received a record number of visitors since the height of the pandemic.
“The Middle East was poised to become one of our biggest leaders in the post-pandemic recovery, and with that momentum returning, it shows just how attractive it is to travelers,” said James Thornton, chief executive of Intrepid Travel, a global travel agency.
Intrepid’s bookings for tours in Oman (and Tunisia in North Africa) have seen explosive demand, which has more than doubled from last year, the company said.
As the conflict approaches, booking numbers in Egypt are rising, traders said, with hopes pinned on trips on the Nile, a pillar of tourism. Beach vacations in coastal destinations such as Hurghada and Sharm el-Sheikh are also on the rise, said Khaled Ibrahim, a representative of Cairo-based Amisol Travel Egypt and a member of the Middle East Travel Alliance.
And in Jordan, Intrepid’s bookings for family visits have increased this year by 22% compared to last year.
In Israel, tourism has yet to recover and its absence is hurting local businesses, said Harry Rubenstein, who runs Harry’s Baked, a company that offers tours to Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and Ramle. He said he’s done a few tours this month, but there’s still nothing planned beyond next week.
“There are no tourists visiting anymore,” Rubenstein said.
Eyal Carlin, Israel’s commissioner for tourism in North America, said foreigners had recently begun arriving in Israel as volunteers. He added that he expects such trips, most of which are religious, to remain “stable” in the coming months.
In addition, air service to Israel has not returned to pre-war levels: the number of inbound flights available from January to March is down about 31% compared to the same period last year, according to Cirium, an aviation company. analysis firm. In the U. S. , Delta Air Lines suspended flights until March 29 and American Airlines suspended service until April 4. United Airlines suspended flights indefinitely, said Josh Freed, a spokesman for United.
-CHRISTINA CHUNG
Will the rise of luxury and wellness fade?
After the frenzy of 2023, all signs point to a growing interest in remote destinations, villa rentals, own plane bookings, and private pilgrimages in 2024.
“The thirst for luxury is real,” said Jack Ezon, founder of high-end brand Embark Beyond. But, he added, mindfulness is about to upgrade worry-free indulgence. “Today’s consumers are focused on sustainability, price of investment and craftsmanship when contemplating a luxury purchase,” he said.
“Travel is the glue that binds the family together and binds them together around a common passion,” said Tom Marchant, co-founder of Black Tomato, which plans custom trips. Compared to 2019, bookings in 2023 have increased through 64% and demand remains strong as we head into the new year.
This year, travelers are expected to decide on far-flung destinations and board small ships, according to Virtuoso, the consortium of luxury agencies. In June, luxury cruise line Seabourn’s new 264-passenger Seabourn Pursuit will call in the remote Kimberley region of Western Australia (10-day voyages start at around $10,000 per year). Black Tomato plans personal trips to free destinations such as the Mitre Peninsula in Argentina’s Patagonia region, priced at more than $60,000 per person.
Among luxury eco-conscious newcomers, Ki’ama Bahamas, slated to open in the fall, promises to be the first fully solar-powered residential club in the Bahamas. This month, Lepogo Lodges in South Africa will open the carbon-neutral Melote House, accommodating up to 16 guests and funneling profits back into the Lapalala Wilderness Reserve, where it is situated (nightly rates from $12,000).
Wellness travel, a market valued at more than $600 billion, is expected to generate $1. 1 trillion by 2025, according to the Global Wellness Institute, a nonprofit that tracks the industry.
“The medical sciences of wellness and longevity have taken over the wellness market,” said Beth McGroarty, director of studies and communications at the Global Wellness Institute. Medical procedures such as bone density testing, biometric screenings, and movable stem treatments are popping up at resorts, along with low-tech systems that focus on sleep, breathing, and social connection.
Travelers will have no shortage of new destinations to satisfy their thirst for health. This spring, the new Hudson Valley Ranch will open near Tuxedo Park, New York, a derivative of the original in Malibu, California, which will provide at least 3 nights’ worth of remains and offer colon treatments, cryotherapy, and guided walks (start at $3,280 per child). SHA Mexico opens near Cancun at the end of January, with systems focused on sexual health, stress reduction and sleep (four nights). The day’s low remains (start at $5,770).
— ELAINE GLUSAC
This article gave the impression of being in the New York Times.