What the New COVID Variant Will Be for Spring and Summer

EMON HASSAN/THE NEW YORK TIMES

A masked passenger at a subway exercise in Union Square in Manhattan, May 2023. For most of this year, the JN. 1 variant of the coronavirus accounted for an overwhelming majority of COVID cases. But now a derivative variant called KP. 2 is taking off. The variant, which accounted for one percent of cases in the United States in mid-March, now accounts for more than a quarter.

For most of this year, the JN. 1 variant of the coronavirus accounted for an overwhelming majority of COVID-19 cases. But now, a derivative variant called KP. 2 is taking off. The variant, which accounted for 1% of cases in the United States in mid-March, now accounts for more than a quarter.

KP. 2 belongs to a subset of COVID variants that scientists have cheekily dubbed “FLiRT,” in reference to the letters in the names of their mutations. They are descendants of JN. 1, and KP. 2 is “very, very close. “” to JN. 1, said Dr. David Ho, a virus expert at Columbia University. But Ho has performed the first laboratory tests on cells recommending that slight differences in the KP. 2 spike protein may make it more effective at evading our immune defenses and more infectious than JN. 1.

While no cases currently appear to be emerging, researchers and doctors are closely monitoring whether the variant will lead to a surge in the summer.

“I don’t think you expect things to be replaced abruptly, necessarily,” said Dr. Marc Sala, co-director of Northwestern Medicine’s Comprehensive COVID-19 Center in Chicago. But KP. 2 will likely be “our new normal,” he said.

Here’s what you want to know.

The Existence of COVID

Experts said it would take several weeks to see if KP. 2 can lead to a surge in COVID cases, noting that we only have a limited understanding of how the virus spreads. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention no longer tracks case counts. , and doctors have said fewer people are getting tested for COVID.

But what we do know is reassuring: Despite the evolution of variants, the CDC’s knowledge suggests that there are only “minimal” degrees of virus circulating in wastewater across the country, and emergency room visits and hospitalizations declined between early March and late April.

“I don’t need to say we already know everything about KP. 2,” said Dr. Ziyad Al-Aly, head of studies and progression at St. John’s Veterans Affairs Health System. Louis. ” But at the moment, I don’t see any primary indication of anything threatening.

Protective vaccinations and past infections.

Experts have said that even if you had JN. 1, you can still get reinfected with KP. 2, if it’s been several months or more since your last COVID episode.

KP. 2 can also infect even other people who have received the most recent vaccine, Ho said, as that vaccine targets XBB. 1. 5, a particularly different variant of JN. 1 and its descendants. A first edition of a paper published in April Japanese researchers warned that KP. 2 might be more adept than JN. 1 at infecting other people who have received the most recent COVID vaccine. (The studies have not yet been peer-reviewed or published. )A CDC spokesperson said the company continues to monitor the functionality of the KP. 2 vaccines.

Still, the vaccine provides some protection, especially against severe illness, doctors said, just like past infections. At this point, there’s no explanation as to why that KP. 2 would cause more severe illness than other strains, the CDC spokesperson said. But other people over the age of 65, pregnant or immunocompromised are still at higher risk for serious COVID-related complications.

These groups, in particular, may need to receive the updated vaccine if they haven’t already, said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease specialist at the University of California, San Francisco. The CDC says that other people 65 and older people who have already received one dose of the updated vaccine will receive another dose at least four months later.

“Even though this is the lowest point of deaths and hospitalizations we’ve seen, I’m still caring for others with health issues due to COVID,” she said. “And they all have a unifying theme, which is that they’re older. “And they didn’t take the last picture. “

The Latest News on Symptoms and Long COVID

Doctors said the symptoms of KP. 2 and JN. 1, which still account for a large number of cases, are at most likely similar to those seen with other variants. These come with sore throat, runny nose, cough, headache, and body aches. pain, fever, congestion, fatigue, and, in severe cases, shortness of breath. Fewer people are squandering their sense of taste and smell than they were at the start of the pandemic.

Chin-Hong said patients were surprised that diarrhea, nausea and vomiting could also be symptoms of COVID and that they infrequently mistook those disorders for symptoms that they had norovirus.

For many other people who have already had COVID, a reinfection is just as mild, or even milder, than their first case. Although new cases of long COVID are less common today than they were at the beginning of the pandemic, repeat infections are on the rise. increases the threat of long COVID, said Fikadu Tafesse, a virus expert at Oregon Health

“That’s the nature of the virus,” Tavesse said. It continues to mutate. “

This article gave the impression of being in the New York Times.

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