Last week, tensions between Russia and the West appeared to reach a dangerous new point when President Vladimir Putin ordered military exercises with nutransparent tactical weapons near the Ukrainian border. The Kremlin has made clear that these exercises are a reaction to statements through Western leaders regarding the deployment of NATO troops in Ukraine and the use of Western weapons to hit targets in Russia.
On May 2, on a wonderful stopover in Kyiv, British Foreign Secretary David Cameron promised to continue helping Ukraine “for as long as it takes” and hinted that the Ukrainians were willing to use British weapons to attack Russian territory. The Franco-British Storm Shadow missiles and the thousands of drones that the UK had promised to supply to Ukraine.
While Western countries supply weapons to Ukraine, they have made it clear that they will be used for attacks on Russian soil. For this reason, Ukraine has so far used its home-made drones and missiles in opposition to civilian and military targets in Russia.
French President Emmanuel Macron, for his part, has continuously warned that NATO could finish deploying troops in Ukraine. He reiterated this this month in an interview with The Economist published on May 2. The French president declined to provide further details, insisting that the European Union will have to maintain “strategic ambiguity” and let the Russians guess at its true intentions.
But the Kremlin has chosen to play the guessing game. The announcement of military exercises with nutransparent tactical weapons in the Southern Military District, on the border with Ukraine, sends a transparent message to the West.
And to make it clearer, the Russian Foreign Ministry summoned the British and French ambassadors and revealed the main points of the reprimands they received.
The one addressed to France simply denounced Macron’s actions as “provocative” and “destructive”. The one aimed at the United Kingdom was much harder. He said that by allowing Ukraine to use weapons against targets in Russia, the UK was becoming a party to the The ambassador was warned that if Ukraine carried out actions employing British weapons, Russia could strike British targets “in Ukraine and beyond”.
It is the first direct risk of attack against NATO targets outside Ukraine since Russia’s all-out invasion began in 2022. But this is not the first time Russia has risked the UK in the context of this conflict.
In the summer of 2021, the Russian Navy fired precautionary shots when the British warship HMS Defender entered what Russia considers its territorial waters off the coast of Crimea. He also threatened to bomb any British shipments that tried to do so again. This episode is a prelude to the Russian invasion.
Several points must have contributed to the existing escalation episode. In the British case, national considerations did indeed play a role. The unpopular Conservative government is almost certain to be defeated in the next national election, making foreign affairs one of the ultimate consequences. it may just stick to it.
Being “tough on Russia” has been his trademark since the days when Prime Minister Boris Johnson emerged as Ukraine’s most powerful supporter and opponent of any deal with Russia, as he sought to salvage his task amid a COVID party scandal in his country. took position on the day of the local elections in the United Kingdom; His stance in Kiev, however, did not help his party suffer a crushing defeat.
But of course, this is not limited to domestic politics. Western leaders have a tendency to coordinate their statements and movements related to this conflict. European leaders, especially British leaders, also have a tendency to adopt the role of “bad guys”. “police” in its relations with Russia, so that Biden’s management seems more restrained and reasonable.
There is also the battlefield scenario that obviously worries Western capitals. In recent months, the Russian military has made steady gains and recently extended the front line for a few tens of kilometers, attacking Ukraine from the north, in the Kharkiv region. .
The current search for a magic solution that would turn the tide in Ukraine’s favor has so far been unsuccessful. The major U. S. aid package, despite everything passed by Congress in April, will, at best, block the Russian offensive at some point later. This year. But the Russian military will most likely capture more territory before that happens.
What Ukraine might prefer to achieve is to try to make the Russian advance more expensive by launching more painful and longer-range attacks, employing Western missiles. The bridge linking the Russian mainland with occupied Crimea is cited as one of the most prized targets. .
Ukrainians are also said to be very willing to attack more infrastructure in Russia itself, in retaliation for the relentless Russian measures that have devastated Ukraine’s energy sector.
Western powers are willing to leave those characteristics on the table to involve Russia and do it twice before launching large-scale operations with devastating consequences for Ukrainian defense.
Russia, on the other hand, does not need to be discouraged and needs to do so in order to achieve its goals in Ukraine, whatever the cost. The Russian calculation has been that, in the end, Ukraine will be much less vital to the West than to Moscow.
In the context of what may turn out to be the most decisive phase of this war, the sides seek to establish the rules of the game and draw their red lines that, they hope, the adversary will hesitate, to say the least, to cross.
But with the demonstrative deployment of nutransparent weapons, it is becoming increasingly clear that brinkmanship is reaching its natural limit. With the maximum (if all) trump cards on the table, the contours of a new balance are becoming more transparent, making peace talks more likely. .
As Putin delivered another bellicose speech at the Victory Day parade in Moscow on May 9, the recently reprimanded French ambassador was present, breaking the boycott imposed by all other primary Western powers. Behind the curtain of harsh speeches and threats, diplomatic efforts to end the war continue.