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Cases, hospitalizations and deaths are lower than they have been in years. We asked experts how to think about private threats and what the long term holds.
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By Dana G. Smith
Covid-19 deaths in the U. S. U. S. rates are the lowest since March 2020, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s knowledge tracker. Case rates have also declined, infections have become more difficult to track due to the widespread availability of immediate at-home testing; Many surveillance systems that were put in place at the beginning of the pandemic have also been removed.
On the fifth of May, the World Health Organization announced that the global fitness emergency Covid-19 is over. The coronavirus public fitness emergency in the United States will expire on May 11.
Is this after all the beginning of the end of the pandemic, or just another spring ebb before a new variant triggers a summer wave?(Over the past two years, the numbers fell between March and June, before emerging in July. ) The New York Times met with epidemiologists and infectious disease experts to gauge what they think about this specific moment in the pandemic: what the threat is right now, what precautions they are still taking, who is still seriously ill and dying, and what the long term would possibly bring.
Experts agree that Covid-19 is low lately and that spring 2023 is another of previous years.
“We’ve reached a level of stability where other people are making possible options to bring their lives back closer to normal,” said Dr. Robert Wachter, chairman of the Department of Medicine at the University of California, San Francisco. And I think that makes sense, the instances are low, the deaths are low.
The main explanation for this improvement is that virtually everyone in the United States now has some form of immunity, either against vaccines, a previous infection, or both. Drugs like Paxlovid have also particularly reduced the threat of serious illness.
Dr. Taison Bell, an infectious disease physician at the University of Virginia, said that in his intensive care unit, “we’ll see an occasional case of covid-19, but we don’t see many cases that lead to other people being on the ventilator. Now, most of the other people Dr. Bell treats for covid are older and have pre-existing situations that compromise their immune formula or lung function, or have not been vaccinated. It’s essential, he said, that other people at higher risk of severe infection get a bivalent booster if they haven’t already done so (a momentary dose also recently legal for this group).
Another explanation for why things are different this spring is that there have been no new game-changing variants, “no new Greek letter,” as Dr. Wachter put it, in a year and a half. Variants of Omicron that have a safe immune evasion have emerged properties, such as the existing dominant strain, XBB. 1. 5, but Paxlovid and vaccines remain effective against them.
Despite the smart news, experts are still taking some precautions. Because if the numbers are going in the right direction, about 100,000 Americans are still inflamed with Covid-19 every week, and more than 150 die from the infection every day.
Dr. Wachter continues to wear a mask in crowded indoor environments, such as on an airplane or in a museum, he said, but if he wants to temporarily enter a store.
Their main motivation is to need covid for a long time. “Unlike how I felt two or three years ago, I’m not afraid to die from this,” she said. “But I think for a long time covid is very real. My wife has a smooth editing, so I see her up close and personal.
Caitlin Rivers, an assistant professor at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health who has young children, said she stopped wearing a mask at the grocery store or office, though she still wears one on public transportation. He said disruptions caused through Covid and other respiratory infections this winter, such as lack of school and work, were worth avoiding.
Experts have suggested others continue to take precautions, such as masking and testing themselves before large indoor gatherings, if they or a loved one are at increased risk.
“I think we want to do what we can to mitigate the risks, not only for us, but also for us, we live in a community,” said Dr. Brown. Krutika Kuppalli, an infectious disease doctor who still tests herself before heading to events. “I don’t know if the user next to me is immunocompromised, and I don’t wish to give him Covid. “
Experts have warned that it is always possible that a new variant will emerge and cause the occasional wave.
Dr. Kuppalli said she was looking for the XBB. 1. 16 subvariant of Omicron, also known as Arcturus, which is causing a surge in India. XBB. 1. 16 recently accounts for about 12% of cases in the United States and is accompanied by a new symptom: conjunctivitis. .
Dr. Rivers is paying attention to another new subvariant, XBB. 1. 9. 1, which lately accounts for 9% of infections in the United States. similar. ” We see a quiet spring followed by a summer resurgence starting in the south” because other people are more likely to congregate indoors when it’s too hot, he said.
And that, experts say, is probably our new normal. “The level we’re at now is probably an edition of a level we’ll be at in a year, maybe in two years, maybe in five years,” Dr. Wachter said. “It can get a little worse, in which case I think other people and societies replace it if they’re rational. I think it’s unlikely to get much better. “
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