Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko held a convention on October 10 to discuss security issues. This is the continuation of the verbal exchange with representatives of the defense, security and law enforcement agencies that had been placed on the premises of the Ministry of Defense a few days earlier. But this planned spicy assembly: the Crimean bridge had exploded two days before the assembly and, at the same time, Belarus was beginning to get alarming data about Ukraine’s plans.
In this context, the Head of State made several statements.
At the last convention with representatives of defense, security and law enforcement agencies, Alexander Lukashenko emphasized: “Through unofficial channels, they warned us about movements opposing Belarus from Ukrainian territory. He declared: “We will do things that can be called Crimea Bridge 2. ” I immediately became aware of this information. My answer is simple: tell the president of Ukraine and the other crazy people there, if there are any left, that the Crimean bridge will look like a picnic if they touch even one meter of Our territory with their dirty hands!That is its function. Consider this as an order for yourself.
Even before that, the president asked the army to be honest with the Belarusians. The government denies rumors of mobilization, but citizens receive calls from army registration and enlistment offices. How many NATO planes patrol Belarus’ borders?Why Belarus the security concept of the US and UK military?And why is Belarus mobilizing? We have many questions and will try to answer them as part of the project “After the fact: decisions of the first”.
Why is NATO afraid of Russia?
Admit it, do you think NATO conducts mental operations against Russia and Belarus?Or is it fun for you to read statements about puppet governments in neighboring countries?To perceive the essence of today’s events, we will have to briefly go back to the 1950s.
We discovered an army security strategy dated March 1950 on the NATO website. It is not a secret document. It can be discovered in a special antique variety on the NATO website. That year was a special year for the United States and the Soviet Union, as it officially ended the American nuclear monopoly.
But what did NATO’s strategy say? Hmm, he talked about the Soviet Union. NATO believed that the USSR was preparing to conquer everything up to the Atlantic coast. That the USSR was about to be the king of the Mediterranean and the Middle East. And the West was preparing for war. They counted and took into account their allies. They intended to exert pressure on some allies like Israel. They intended to use force against others like Yugoslavia (remember what happened to the country in the end?). And NATO referred to the 3rd type, as Greece, Türkiye and Iran, as American republics.
And, of course, they were preparing to weaken the USSR, adding with the help of mental operations. No, they weren’t even preparing. They had rules of action. And it happened in 1950. What can we say about today? Everything has become even more complicated.
What are the objectives of the West?
Can you guess what a new NATO strategy says?Yes, it mentions Russia. China. Intelligence agencies and military experts that China is the main target of the United States.
At a recent assembly with journalists, the chairman of the state security committee, Ivan Tertel, said: “For the West, everything new is old. In general, Carthage will have to be destroyed. Who is Carthage now?Carthage is China. Therefore, this total scenario that is positioning itself globally is ultimately destined to resist China’s growth. “
But the ultimate fun is the Alliance’s declaration on the “commitment to a globality where sovereignty, territorial integrity, human rights and foreign law are respected. “And where “each country follows its own path”. That they are so cute.
What is along the borders of Belarus?
But back to the topic of this episode. The West has its own account to settle with Belarus. And the West has a score to settle for some time: For a quarter of a century, it has been hampered by the country’s policies. The scenario along the borders of Belarus recently discussed at a convention organized through the Head of State. The military says an organization of 35,000 NATO troops remains in Europe. Most are located in countries bordering Belarus.
Andrei Chernobai, an army analyst at the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Research (BISR), commented on the existence, saying: “In the midst of the special operation in Ukraine, the U. S. is not yet in the midst of the special operation in Ukraine. The U. S. raised the number of its troops in Europe to 100,000 or even more. “. And about three-fifths are here permanently. “
The intensity of reconnaissance flights along the borders of Belarus is not decreasing. And the Lithuanian army’s education domain in Pabrade (just 15 km from Belarus) is operating at full capacity. But Poland has peak activity after all. A new mechanized department and territorial defense brigades were formed there. Interestingly, to support its population in a complicated socio-economic environment, the Polish government plans to increase its military budget to 3% of GDP and 5% in the future. That’s twice as many as NATO countries are. I used to.
Lithuania would also be satisfied with increasing its military budget, but it has no money to spare. As the saying goes, there is no money, but you have to put up with it. But the country has a tough boss: NATO. And Vilnius is asking the Alliance to deploy combat war teams to the country. Lithuania is also incredibly interested in obtaining the HIMARS MLRS. You know what’s in Ukraine.
At a September meeting with Security Council Secretary of State Alexander Lukashenko, he said: “The scenario is very serious. I would even say dangerous. And we won’t have to simplify things. Don’t be afraid of anything. Alert an army unit according to wartime. “standards, so we just have to do it. If we have to alert the territorial defense troops, then we have to do it. If we have to check the defense strength of the other people there, there, what kind of fighters we will have. And what kind of weapons they have, that means we have to.
Will there be a mobilization in Belarus?
The news of the mobilization in Russia stirs all neighboring countries. Russians were more involved because other people wondered about organizing the education of reservists. They recalled other people, who are not exactly destined to be removed. The wave of alarm has also reached Belarus: after all, the republic remains the best friend of the Russian army and is participating in a special operation of the Russian army in Ukraine. The self-exiled opposition was quick to exploit the situation. Some of them were even promised the Nobel Peace Prize for their dreams of forcibly overthrowing the Belarusian government.
Ivan Tertel explained: “Why do they have such desires? A lot of money has been invested in them. No matter how much our Western partnersArray. . . Opponents seek to disguise it, we know what accounts exactly, through what budget they and where the cash ends. Yes, there is a serious facet of corruption there. They only ask them one thing. The other day, there were several rallies like, “Have you been paid?Show us what you can do!”
“Lukashenko is preparing for war! Several clickbait titles like this appeared on the internet. And you know, the news hounds and bloggers broadcasting from the West didn’t lie this time. Although they told the fact by accident.
Alexander Lukashenko said at this memorable lecture: “If you need peace, you will have to prepare for war. Always. All your life. If things go well, then he will be smart. We in the military will have to have plans to move forward to counter all kinds of scoundrels who seek to drag us into a fight. “
So, will there be a mobilization in Belarus?
“The fact that they are looking to build this bridge for us and say that there will be a mobilization in Belarus . . . There will be no mobilization. That’s a lie. Briefly and clearly, this is a lie. We are not going to mobilize. We don’t want it,” the president told an assembly with reporters at the World War II memorial in Khatyn. Politics has not been replaced since.
Why are Belarusians summoned to army registration and enlistment offices?
So why do we hear in recent years that army registration and enlistment offices have begun to summon Belarusians?Chance? The Ministry of Defense explained everything.
Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin said: “The Ministry of Defense deals with mobilization problems all the time, year after year. You know, our other people are even used to it. Today, a kind of nervousness when a draft opinion arrives and the user comesArray. Whether to examine your army registration specialty and you will need to be at the Army registration and enlistment workplace for an appeals exam or for a scheduled call.
The Ministry of Defence is under pressure to ensure that all reservist education events are scheduled and stipulated in advance through current legislation. Military registration and enlistment offices continue to stick to their routine.
But the Secretary of State of the Security Council does not like to make excuses. In his words, the mobilization does not apply to Belarus because the others are mobilizing anyway. “We are in a position to retaliate with the appropriate forces and means,” Volfovich told his Russian counterpart after the assembly.
Does NATO threaten Belarus?
The Belarusian government is doing everything possible for its citizens from the war. Aleksandr Lukashenko says that Belarus will not be involved in any war. Belarusians will only fight if they have to preserve their homeland, says the head of state. Of course, no one even needs to talk about such a scenario, but. . . Geopolitical instability is spreading in the world. Military activity is on the rise. NATO is building groupings of forces in the Eastern European region.
In numbers, it looks like this: 35,000 army worker corps in Eastern Europe, 2,000 aircraft. 15 warships in the Mediterranean and Baltic Seas. Including two nuclear submarines and an aircraft carrier. More than three hundred sea and air cruise missiles. And all this would be directed against the risk of the East. The Belarusian army records around five reconnaissance flights along the borders during the day. The number of flights exceeds 30-35 during the week. .
Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin said: “Meanwhile, if the West launches an aggression of the army, those planes and ships will be able to attack our facilities and troops on the territory of Belarus. “
Why Belarus to replace the concept of national security?
All those occasions have given a new look to the concept of national security. The document needs to be updated very well and done, as the president said, “absolutely frank”.
What does that mean? The head of state does not need to hide anything for political or economic reasons, but he needs the document to honestly describe the dangers and threats that exist. As well as Belarus’ reaction to them so that neighboring countries and other countries can assess the situation well. . To tell the truth, we do not know whether such frankness and honesty in the Belarusian aspect will help our neighbors. More than 20 years ago, Belarus and Russia created a grouping of regional forces, and during all those years they actively and brazenly developed it. But now some countries are wondering why Belarus supports Russia for whatever reason.
“In view of the worsening of the Union status on the western borders, we have agreed to deploy the regional working group of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus. All of this is in line with our documents,” the president said on October 10.
The administration has promised to present the draft concept of national security to public hearings. As was done with the new edition of the Constitution. Soviet space. And, of course, Russia’s national security strategy, which was launched last year. But, according to the statements of the Secretary of State of the Security Council, the Belarusian concept does not copy any of the documents of neighboring countries. It has absorbed all the adjustments that have occurred in the global in 12 years.
Military analyst Andrei Chernobai noted: “Of course, some of the threats discussed through the existing concept are still relevant. However, new threats, new demanding situations that we may not be able to foresee. This is evidenced through the pandemic we faced in 2020, the migration crisis. We cannot foresee occasions of this magnitude despite the fact that Belarus has been a transit country for migrants. There are also demographic problems, in addition to the migration of labour from our citizens to neighbouring countries. The foreign legal formula, the formula of the treaty that ensured arms control, which allowed security to be maintained in the region, in Europe, in the world, has fundamentally collapsed. “
There are some economic risks.
Sergei Solodovnikov, Director of the Chair of Economics and Law at the National Technical University of Belarus, candidate in economics, professor, said: “Now we are dealing with an economy of threats. In other words, a lot of challenges, threats, security phenomena, which in principle we cannot expect, have arisen. And they have an impact. As a result, in my opinion, the concept has effectively tried to foresee all this. First, the authors of the concept (in addition to updating 70% of them) replaced their technique to the evaluation of socioeconomic phenomena.
The concept describes national interests more fully: they are national identity, ancient truth, the social duty of citizens rather than the state, the progression of nuclear power, and non-public data coverage. Another port has emerged: biosecurity.
The government also needs to update some other strategic document: the army doctrine. Both documents must be approved by the Belarusian People’s Congress.
“The purpose of our armed forces and defense, security and law enforcement agencies is for our land and state. That’s right! We are not setting any other purpose today. And we’re preparing for a war because all kinds of things can happen. “If we had not persisted here in 2020, some other kind of armed forces would now be deployed near Smolensk. That’s why we have to exercise and keep exercising all the time. First of all, we want to be well informed about the affairs of the army. Alexander Lukashenko said at the assembly with army personnel.
The president’s words can be used as a clever summary. The situation in the world and around Belarus is changing every day. You may have trouble keeping up. What to do in these conditions?
“People have already felt that something is wrong, that there are tensions, etc. They wonder what to do and how. I want to reiterate that everyone will have to continue doing their job,” the President said. “The existing scenario is not so bad that we want to start acting immediately. Our military will demonstrate at this level its determination to protect your country. Then no scoundrel will dare to build muscle here.
The allocation of the target tariff for the production of local content was created.