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At least 73 countries are experiencing outbreaks of newly detected cases, and in the areas where the disbelievers are approaching, considerations are increasing.
By Simon Romero, Manny Fernandez and Marc Santora
That’s an astonishing number, nearly 200,000 other people have died of coronavirus in the United States, and nearly five more times, nearly a million others, worldwide.
And the pandemic, which provoked instances in many countries and then down after the lockouts, has reached a precarious point: will countries like the United States see the virus continue to slow down in the coming months?Or will there be a new wave on the way?
“What’s going to happen, no one knows,” said Catherine Troisi, infectious disease epidemiologist at the University of Texas Health Sciences Center in Houston. “This virus has surprised us on many fronts and may surprise us again. “
In the United States, fewer new cases of coronavirus have been detected week after week since last July, following outbreaks first in the Northeast and then in the south and west.
But in recent days, the number of new cases in the country has been emerging again, fueling the concerns of a resurgence of the virus as universities and schools reopen and the colder climate pushes others inland before some epidemiologists fear it’s a devastating winter.
The number of coronavirus deaths in the United States is now roughly equivalent to the population of Akron, Ohio, nearly two and a half times the number of U. S. service members who have died in combat in Vietnam and the wars in Korea combined, and approximately 800 more people continue to die each day.
Worldwide, at least 73 countries are experiencing an increase in recently detected cases and considerations are developing rapidly.
In India, more than 90,000 new instances have been detected daily lately, adding up to one million instances since the beginning of the month and expanding the total number of instances in the country to more than five million.
In Europe, after blockades helped quell the crisis in the spring, the virus made its way across the continent again as others continue their lives.
Israel, with nearly 1,200 deaths attributed to the virus, imposed a momentary blockade last week, one of the few countries that has done so far.
When the first wave of infections spread around the world, governments imposed radical restrictions on travel: more than 4 billion people were under some sort of order to stay home at some point, but most countries are now desperately looking for such intense measures again.
“We are facing a very serious situation,” said Hans Kluge, regional director of the World Health Organization for Europe last week, “weekly cases have surpassed those reported when the pandemic peaked in Europe in March. “
Across Latin America, the death toll is more than 310,000. Two-thirds of the total come from two countries: Brazil with more than 132,000 reported deaths and Mexico with 72,000. Carissa F. Etienne, director of the Pan American Health Organization, warned that the risk persists.
“Latin America has begun to return to near-general social and public life at a time when Covid-19 still requires primary interventions,” he said last week. “We want to be transparent in the sense that opening up too early gives more area to this virus spreading and puts our populations at greater risk. Look no further than Europe. “
Deaths in the United States due to coronavirus increased to 199300 on Sunday afternoon, leaving families across the country in mourning. Just four months ago, at the end of May, the death toll in the country reached 100,000. Even the existing count can be a significant undercount, of the death toll in the country, research suggests, without adding some other people who die from Covid-19, as well as those who die for secondary reasons that are also similar to the pandemic.
While the virus has outperformed the United States this spring, deaths have increased. By mid-April, more than 2,000 people were dying every day on average. The deaths increased again this summer as higher instances in the south and west. has slowed down significantly since then.
Although the functions of health care systems vary widely around the world, early detection of infections, efforts to keep the virus out of nursing homes and away from the most vulnerable groups, and better remedies have meant fewer people want to put on respirators. and better results for those who are seriously ill.
However, as the vaccine race continues, there is nothing for Covid-19.
In the United States, the daily number of deaths from the virus has decreased from the previous day in early August, when more than 1200 deaths occurred each day. However, even when some of the most populous states in the country report on major innovations and northeastern states. have kept new infections low, deaths continue to increase in 12 states and two territories.
Dr. Tom Inglesby, director of the Center for Health Safety at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said the death toll in the United States could reach 300,000 if the public lets their guard down.
“There are many countries where we could be our economic peers, or that are much less evolved in terms of economy or health care systems, that have much less mortality,” he said.
The contrast with other industrialized countries is striking as it reflects how the virus still destroys parts of the United States. On a day last week, the United States reported 849 new deaths. On the same day, Italy, once the epicentre of the pandemic, had thirteen deaths. Canada and Germany reported seven deaths that day.
The virus later took off in the United States than elsewhere, but instances were never fully controlled. Since the beginning of April, the overall daily average of instances in the country has not dropped from 20,000, and a key consultation looms over the End of Summer: Would a lower overall end continue in the nation’s daily reports on new cases and deaths since August, or would a recent increase in cases be a sign that a new ending is concerned?
Yvonne Maldonado, a pediatric infectious disease specialist at Stanford University, compared the country’s existing scenario to California’s weeks ago, when a new wave of cases emerged.
Updated October 2, 2020
The latest news about the reopening of the pandemic.
“For those of us in California, we went through that time when we were proud of the lock and our ability to flatten the curve,” Dr. Maldonado said. “We ended up with an overconfidding. “
The pandemic can be prolonged, he warned, like the influenza pandemic of a century ago. The deadly flu then crossed the United States in 3 waves: one in the spring of 1918, in the fall, and in the winter and spring of 1919. In this influenza pandemic, about 675,000 Americans died.
The new points add to uncertainties about the evolution of the coronavirus. Cold weather checks for the dangers of shared indoor air more than ever. The advent of flu season threatens to further stretch the health care system. And the good luck of efforts to save him. The spread of the virus to newly restarted colleges and college campuses remains uncertain.
Many of the country’s largest school districts start the year with distance learning, but most states have at least some school districts, usually in rural or suburban areas, that have opened their doors to face-to-face education.
Schools in states like Georgia and Indiana have already been open for a month, but experts say they cannot yet be sure of the effect on transmission of the virus in communities.
Bill Hanage, associate professor of epidemiology at THof Harvard, Chan School of Public Health, said that due to massive variation in the way schools reopen (some schools strictly apply social esttachment and masking needs and others do much less) “I hope there will be a wide variety of consequences. “
Already, a return to schools and universities, with widespread testing on campuses, has led to an increase in known cases. More than 88,000 cases of coronavirus were reported in more than 1,100 U. S. schools. But it’s not the first time Because of the pandemic, according to an investigation by the New York Times. .
On-campus transmission is expected to be less lethal among students, however, experts are involved in that such cases can lead to larger and more harmful epidemics when other young people interact with teachers, members of the family circle, and neighbors.
And in fact, metropolitan spaces where the virus has grown faster included places where primary educational epidemics were observed: La Crosse, Wisconsin, home to the University of Wisconsin-La Crosse, the University of Viterbo and Western Technical College; State College, Pennsylvania, headquartered on the main campus of Pennsylvania State University; and Gainesville, Florida, home to the University of Florida. Other college cities have also reported dizzying increases, adding Provo, Utah and Manhattan, Kan.
“If this peak continues, it will put pressure on our systems,” Andrew P wrote. Manion, president of Edgewood College in Madison, Wisconsin, in a letter in which he asked academics to adhere to social estating regulations that adhere to a building cases. “The short-term gain from going to a party is in charge of making more people sick. If this trend continues, I will take the painful but mandatory resolution of entire semester fully remote courses, and the apartments and offices will close during the semester.
The first few months of the pandemic case flooded U. S. urban and coastal spaces, however, the virus is now spreading widely, in rural communities and in places that had noticed few cases, if any. Montana and North Dakota have reported more cases in recent days than ever before.
The infection rate in North Dakota last week was twice that of Texas and more than double that of California, two previous hot spots. The infection rate measures virus instances of 100,000 people, and North Dakota reported more than 17,000 cases and 190 deaths. the pandemic, it has only about 760,000 people.
However, more than part of North Dakota cases have been reported since early August.
“At first it was a disease of a big city and we saw it on television,” said Sister Kathleen Atkinson, a Benedictine nun who is director of a ministry in Bismarck, the capital of North Dakota. “There is no longer a single county that has not had a positive case and that is part of everyone’s life. “
Mitch Smith, Will Wright, Kate Taylor and Shawn Hubler contributed to the report.
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