Few would be surprised to learn that the United States is preoccupied with supporting a democratic country recently invaded by its authoritarian neighbor. But many Americans are unaware that their country is doing this for two of those post-Soviet countries: not only Ukraine, but also Armenia, which has been under invasion of Azerbaijan for only about 3 weeks.
The two conditions are not related. A key thing in the current U. S. commitmentThe U. S. presence in Armenia is Russia’s visual absence in a region that Armenia considers its backyard. But EE. UU. no only seeks to expel Russia from the post-Soviet South Caucasus. I have learned how serious the risk is, not only for Armenia, but for the world.
In the first minutes of September 13, while families slept in eastern Armenia, Azerbaijan introduced the unprovoked shelling of 3 dozen Armenian cities with heavy artillery and unmanned combat drones. Both countries have been locked in intermittent hostilities for decades over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh. Republic, however, Azerbaijan’s regime now seems to be taking credit for the unpreparedness of its rival’s army and global, especially Russian, distraction. In just two days, Azerbaijani forces killed more than two hundred Armenians, mostly soldiers, according to official government counts. Videos posted by the invaders gave the impression of showing them laughing as they maimed fallen Armenian women and executed Armenian soldiers who surrendered.
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Other main points of the raid were reported through journalists and officials based in Armenia. On September 14, foreign journalists reported on Azerbaijani shelling in the Armenian city of Sotk, which is far from army installations. The next day, at the UN emergency hearing. Armenia revealed that despite last day’s ceasefire, Azerbaijan is stockpiling additional troops, adding Nakhchivan, the Azerbaijani enclave bordering southwestern Armenia. This would open a front of momentary invasion. On September 23, Western embassies in Yerevan issued still-active “travel warnings” for southern Armenia and beyond, hinting that they expected additional attacks. However, many media outlets around the world lack regional hounds on the ground, so news from Armenia has largely remained off the radar of the mainstream.
It was just the scale of the speaker of the U. S. House of Representatives. U. S. Secretary of State Nancy Pelosi in Armenia on the weekend of September 17, in aid of Armenian “security and democracy” opposed to Azerbaijan’s “illegal and murderous attacks,” has become abundantly transparent that the United States, in a dramatic transformation, is fully committed, though probably only diplomatically, to preventing existential threats opposed to Armenia.
Jackie Speier, one of two members of the Armenian-American Congress accompanying President Pelosi, recalled at a giant Armenian-American rally in Los Angeles on Sept. 25 that in Armenia she told the dinner host, the Prime Minister, that she didn’t need a woman. Feeling like she grew up: Reluctant to identify as Armenian because her homeland, then part of the USSR, did not appear on the global map. As the congresswoman announced at the meeting, she is introducing a solution that condemns and holds the war in Azerbaijan responsible. crimes and assaults, following a similar move through prominent House Democrat Adam Schiff, and a two-component solution in the Senate introduced by more sensible Senators Bob Menendez and Marco Rubio. But this is not domestic electoral politics.
More importantly, especially since Congress has been attentive to the considerations of the Armenian-American electorate, the White House has now reshaped its historic “two sidist” rhetoric on the conflict. role in preventing Azerbaijan’s aggression from September 13 to 14. Since then, Biden’s management has initiated many meetings for and with Armenian and Azerbaijani officials, in users and by phone, despite threats from Azerbaijan’s authoritarian president, who has made Armeniaphobia his power-building formula since inheriting the presidency in 2003, that “nothing and no one can stop us. “
U. S. participation The U. S. military would possibly also be a wonder given that Armenia is officially part of the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization), Russia’s failed mini-version of NATO. Worried about its failed invasion of Ukraine and forced mobilization of troops, Russia is or is unable and unwilling to protect its treaty ally, Armenia today. But in 2020 and 2021, in past rounds of aggression against Azerbaijan, Russia also chose to do no more to protect its ally, it had the power of the army to do so. On paper, Russia is the guarantor of the security of democratic Armenia. In reality, Russia and Azerbaijan, two authoritarian states rich in fossil fuels, are much closer; Turkey’s unwavering aid to the latter, which has become an increasingly important component for Russia in the face of Western sanctions, further complicates Russia’s aid to Armenia.
Today, EE. UU. se realizes that a transitory absence of Russia involved in the Caucasus means a possible participation not only of Turkey but also of Iran, which has warned that it opposes border changes; it has a northern border with Armenia, a lifeline for Europe. A possible confrontation between Turkey and Iran as a result of Azerbaijan’s invasion of Armenia may lead to an unmanageable destabilization of the Middle East and beyond, which neither Russia nor the US has been able to do so. The U. S. wants to.
The recent U. S. involvement The U. S. situation in the Caucasus is unprecedented. For the first time since the Cold War, it is the movements of a country other than Russia that matter most in the region right now. Will Washington succeed in preventing a full-scale invasion of democratic countries?Is Armenia willing to make sacrifices to achieve this goal, such as promoting defense weapons in Armenia and sanctioning Azerbaijan, despite the intense Turkish tension and European power needs?The only American public sacrifice in the last three weeks to protect the Armenian way of life. it turns out to have come from the outgoing U. S. ambassador. U. S. in Armenia. On September 28, Lynne Tracy risked her protection to Syunik, the maximum region of southern Armenia, despite her own embassy’s warning not to visit the entire region.
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Earlier, President Joe Biden announced that he would nominate Tracy as U. S. ambassador. The U. S. presence in Russia is a testament to his courage and desire for Moscow to go deeper through those who count on him most. aggression, will leave Armenia no option to further integrate with Russia. Similar cases a century ago, after the Armenian Genocide, helped revive the collapsed Russian Empire in the USSR.
With the option of additional violence lurking in their talks, the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan met in Geneva on October 2, as Azerbaijani special forces were reportedly approaching Armenia’s borders. Hostilities can resume at any time, as the Azerbaijani autocrat turns out to have little explanation as to why he should hold back. At the Oct. 1 inauguration of a new pipeline to Europe, EU leader Ursula von der Leyen described Azerbaijan as “reliable”; Europe, faced with the vivid effects of its determination to punish Russia, is ready to embolden some other authoritarian aggressor. The United States, at least in rhetoric, is more cautious.
Whether history — broken Western promises bringing a vulnerable Armenia closer to Russia — repeats itself, this time in the form of a ruthless joke, depends largely on the direction American leaders take next.