CTED has been at the forefront of efforts to monitor and evaluate the effects of the pandemic on terrorism, counterterrorism and countering violent extremism (CVE), particularly through its two previous analytical reports. CTED’s research on key trends was informed by its discussions with Member States (and through hybrid assessment visits carried out on behalf of the Counter-Terrorism Committee) and with foreign and regional organisations.
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Growing frustration, mistrust and anger over COVID-19 restrictions among populations in many states and economic difficulties (including emerging unemployment, poverty, developing inequality and food insecurity) are potential points for a buildup of the terrorist threat. The pandemic has also limited schooling around the world, reducing schooling and employment for young people and potentially weakening their resilience in the face of violent extremist rhetoric.
Pandemic-related effects have created a volatile socioeconomic climate in states already facing tensions between networks. There have been increasing cases of violent protests against the blockade organized through groups espousing anti-government and anti-establishment ideologies. Minority teams have also been affected by the pandemic, as online misinformation and conspiracy theories target vulnerable communities and seek to exploit pre-existing social and network tensions.
The pandemic has exacerbated already untenable situations in refugee and internally displaced persons camps and detention camps in Iraq and the Syrian Arab Republic for ISIL-affiliated women and girls. These populations face an increased threat of pandemic-related headaches and increasing threats of radicalization. to violence. COVID-19 has also had a serious impact on rehabilitation and reintegration programs globally, including states that have repatriated their citizens from the Middle East.
Most states have faced a sharp contraction in their economic activity (especially those dependent on foreign tourism), leaving fewer resources to satisfy the desires of their populations and, in some cases, a relief in national or multilateral resources. to combat terrorism and counter terrorism. violent extremism. This trend is especially worrying when terrorist teams challenge the already weakened presence and authority of the State, especially if these teams can exploit economic and social situations to expand into new territories.
The pandemic has amplified the underlying reasons for lack of trust and confrontations, as well as social and economic inequalities that drive humanitarian desires, while widening the gap between desires and available resources. Redirecting the budget from humanitarian priorities to COVID-19 responses may also have a negative impact on already vulnerable populations. The potential misuse or unnecessary expansion of emergency powers would also likely exacerbate existing trends related to shrinking humanitarian space.
Although the development and deployment of COVID-19 vaccination programmes continues apace, growing vaccination inequalities and divides have emerged. Member States facing conflict and a heightened terrorist threat typically face pre-existing issues of insecurity, governance challenges, and capacity gaps. This will be compounded by lack of access to, and procurement of, vaccines, making it harder for such States to combat and contain the pandemic. Unequal access might also exacerbate issues relating to economic and social inequities, potentially increasing existing grievances.