CTED has been at the forefront of efforts to monitor and assess the effects of the pandemic on terrorism, counterterrorism, and countering violent extremism (CVE), particularly through its two previous analytical reports. CTED’s research on key trends was based on its discussions with member States (and through hybrid assessment visits conducted on behalf of the Counter-Terrorism Committee) and with foreign and regional organizations.
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Growing frustration, mistrust and anger over COVID-19 restrictions among populations in many States and economic difficulties (including emerging unemployment, poverty, growing inequality and food insecurity) are potential drivers of a build-up of terrorist threat. The pandemic has also limited schooling around the world, reducing education and employment prospects for young people and potentially weakening their resilience in the face of violent extremist discourse.
The effects of the pandemic have created a volatile socioeconomic climate in states already facing tensions between communities. There have been increasing cases of violent protests against the blockade organized through groups espouse anti-government and anti-establishment ideologies. Minority groups have also been affected by the pandemic, as online misinformation and conspiracy theories target vulnerable communities and seek to exploit pre-existing social and network tensions.
The pandemic has exacerbated already unbearable situations in refugee and internally displaced persons camps and detention camps in Iraq and the Syrian Arab Republic, affecting women and girls affiliated with ISIL. These populations face an increased threat of headaches due to the pandemic and increasing threats of radicalization leading to violence. COVID-19 has also had a serious impact on rehabilitation and reintegration systems globally, including states that have expelled their citizens from the Middle East.
Most States have faced a severe contraction in economic activity (notably those dependent on international tourism), leaving fewer resources to respond to their population’s needs and in some cases, reductions in national or multilateral counter-terrorism and CVE resourcing. This trend is particularly worrying where terrorist groups challenge the State’s already weakened presence and authority, especially if such groups can instrumentalize economic and social conditions to expand to newer territories.
The pandemic has amplified either the underlying reasons of lack of confidence and clash as well as the social and economic inequalities driving humanitarian wishes, whilst also widening the hole between wishes and to be had resources. Redirecting budget from humanitarian priorities to COVID-19 responses can also just have a negative have an effect on on already vulnerable populations. The prospective misuse or unnecessary expansion of emergency powers would possibly also exacerbate existing trends relating to shrinking humanitarian space.
While the progression and deployment of COVID-19 vaccination systems continues at a steady pace, inequalities and divisions in vaccination have emerged. Member States facing clashes and increased terrorist risk face pre-existing insecurity, governance disruptions and lack of capacity. This will be compounded by a lack of vaccine access and procurement, making it more difficult for those states to fight and engage in the pandemic. Unequal access can also exacerbate disorders similar to economic and social inequalities, potentially widening existing ones. grievances.