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(Add forecast details, background)
Oct 25 (Reuters) – Daily global COVID-19 infections are expected to slowly rise to around 18. 7 million through February, above the existing average of 16. 7 million cases, due to the Northern Hemisphere’s winter months, the University of Washington said in an analysis.
According to the report, far fewer infections are expected than last winter’s estimated daily average of around 80 million cases in January 2022, which prompted the immediate spread of the Omicron variant.
The backlog of cases is expected to lead to a backlog of deaths, said the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).
It predicts international deaths will average another 2,748 people on Feb. 1, up from 1,660 today. In January, deaths were more than 11 million according to the international day.
IHME estimates that infections in the EE. UU. se will accumulate by one-third to more than a million, due to students’ return to schools and indoor gatherings similar to bloodless weather.
An increase in Germany has already peaked, it said in its Oct. 24 report. IHME expects cases there to drop by more than a third to around 190,000 through February.
The report suggests that the recent COVID outbreak in Germany may simply be due to Omicron subvariants BQ. 1 or BQ. 1. 1, and will most likely spread to other parts of Europe in the coming weeks.
An immediate increase in hospital admissions in Germany, since the COVID outbreak in 2020, remains a concern, he said.
The IHME research also found that Omicron’s new XBB subvariant, which is lately increasing hospitalizations in Singapore, is more transmissible but less severe.
The overall effect of XBB is expected to be mitigated because other people in the past inflamed with Omicron’s BA. 5 subvariant are likely immune to it, according to the report. (Reporting via Bhanvi Satija in Bengaluru; editing via Caroline Humer, Shinjini Ganguli and Bill Berkrot)