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By Khushi Mandowara
(Reuters) – Moderna is expected to reach the lower end of its sales target for this year because it only wants to tap into a small slice of the private market with its COVID vaccine to achieve that goal, industry analysts say.
About 20 million people need to be vaccinated with Moderna’s updated COVID-19 vaccine for the company to reach $2 billion in private-market sales in 2023, a figure four analysts told Reuters was achievable.
The company said it expects overall demand for COVID vaccines in the U. S. to increase in demand. The U. S. is expected to reach 100 million doses in the fall.
Moderna expects sales of its COVID-19 vaccine to reach $6 billion to $8 billion in 2023, with $2 billion to $4 billion expected to come from the advertising market. Previously signed contracts would account for the rest.
That forecast was called into question last month, when Pfizer lowered its full-year sales forecast for its COVID-19 vaccine to about $2 billion due to lower-than-expected vaccination rates.
Moderna shares have fallen about 22% since its rival cautioned.
“Moderna is unlikely to experience a negative drop (in its sales outlook) like Pfizer because they act much more conservatively,” said Hartaj Singh, an analyst at Oppenheimer.
Jefferies analyst Michael Yee said that while the rollout of the new vaccines was slow at first, it appears to be accelerating, according to recent data. Yee expects most of the application to come from seniors 65 and older.
Moderna reports third-quarter effects on Thursday, two days after Pfizer posted its first quarterly loss since 2019 due to a giant fee to account for the U. S. government’s return. UU. de million doses of its COVID-19 antiviral remedy Paxlovid, as well as inventories. of your products. Comirnaty COVID Vaccine.
The COVID vaccine is the product advertised through Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Moderna.
Its prices and advances soared 62% to $1. 1 billion in the second quarter as it looks to market other products, adding a flu vaccine and a respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine.
The company’s RSV vaccine, which aims to launch in the U. S. A study conducted in the U. S. in 2024 found to be 82. 4% effective in older adults with 3 or more symptoms in a complex trial. It would compete with the recently approved vaccines from Pfizer and GSK.
Data from a late-stage study of Moderna’s flu vaccine with updated formulations published in September showed that it generated a more potent immune reaction against all four strains A and B of the flu virus compared to classic flu vaccines.
Moderna’s broader line of mRNA-based respiration, which includes RSV and flu vaccines, is expected to generate $10 billion to $12 billion in revenue, reducing expenses and providing stability in R.
(Reporting by Manas Mishra and Khushi Mandowara in Bengaluru and Patrick Wingrove in New York; editing by Leslie Adler)