By Mark Trevelian
LONDON (Reuters) – A series of military activities in Belarus this week has drawn the attention of Ukraine and the West as a possible sign that President Alexander Lukashenko would likely devote his military to Russia’s war effort in Ukraine.
Lukashenko ordered troops to be deployed with Russian forces near the Ukrainian border, and his Defense Ministry said “combat readiness” exercises were taking place. On Tuesday, the Interior Ministry held drills to “sabotage groups” near Yelsk, just 20 km from the Ukrainian border.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called on group of seven (G7) countries to place a foreign observer project near the border, while France warned Belarus that it could face more Western sanctions if it deepens its involvement in Ukraine.
Belarus was allowed to be used as a launching pad for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, but did not directly sign up for the fighting. Analysts say Lukashenko would not yet have to comply if Russian President Vladimir Putin demands that he go to war. , at a time when Moscow is reeling from a series of defeats and facing unprecedented public complaints about the mistakes of its generals.
But they doubt that Belarus’ intervention will make much of a difference. Its armed forces number just 48,000, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and have waged war in more than 30 years of independence since the fall of the Soviet Union.
“It’s not exactly a combat-proven armed force,” said Samir Puri of Russia’s Road to War with Ukraine.
He said, however, that the threat of a Belarusian intervention could force Ukraine to seek safety in the north of the country, moving forces away from the front lines with Russia to the south and east.
Zelenskiy’s call for foreign observers is a sign that Ukraine is taking the threat seriously, but it may not be feasible diplomatically, Puri said. It may also be drawn into clashes with Russian forces.
Belarus’ Defense Ministry was quick to respond to a request for comment. On Tuesday, he said the deployment of Russian troops is a defensive measure “aimed at adequately responding to movements near our borders. “
CLOSER TO NATO
Belarus borders three NATO members, something that would possibly also be part of Putin’s calculations as he seeks to drag his best friend into war.
“It brings it much closer to NATO’s borders. Putin can then say, ‘I bring you war. What happens if a missile goes astray?” a senior EU official said.
Lukashenko did not specify the duration and role of the joint force he announced on Monday, saying at the time that he expected thousands of troops to arrive on Belarusian territory.
All the evidence does not recommend that the Belarusian army is about to join the fight. The Belarusian Hajun project, which monitors army movements, said there is evidence that the aircraft are moving in the other direction, adding the movement to Russia of at least two trains with 28 Belarusian tanks.
Pavel Slunkin, a former Belarusian diplomat recently at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said there is no sign of Russia pouring forces into the country to re-invade Ukraine from the north, as it did at the start of the war in February.
He said he did not know that Lukashenko was about to devote his forces to fighting across Russia, but that he would possibly be preparing for that eventuality. And in this situation it is greater that the army is prepared. “
Slunkin said Lukashenko, who survived mass protests with Russia’s help in 2020 and depends on Putin both politically and financially, would not be able to push back the army if the Kremlin demanded it.
“His guarantee of retaining strength depends largely on Putin,” he said. “Lukashenko cannot do it without Russia’s help and repression. Its dependence is so deep that it has almost no room for manoeuvre.
(Additional reporting via John Irish; editing via Guy Faulconbridge and Frank Jack Daniel)
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