As the war in Ukraine enters its fourth month of infinite vision, several observers begin to wonder, “Will the West tire of supporting Ukraine?Some commentators have argued that “the time is on Putin’s side” and that the fierce reaction of NATO and other global democracies will fade in the face of demanding economic situations stemming from inflation, Russia’s suffocation of Ukrainian agricultural products and hydrocarbons from the global economy, domestic political divisions (particularly in the US). USA) and challenge fatigue as the relentless 24/ The 7-news cycle continues.
I’m old enough not to forget the American holiday in Vietnam, and Putin’s scenario is increasingly reminiscent of this long and painful misadventure. His hand of cards, weak at the beginning of the conflict, weakens day by day. The climate is more on the side of Ukraine and the West than Putin’s, and as the year progresses, it will become more apparent.
Let’s start with the army’s deeds on the ground. Putin’s initial purpose of conquering all of Ukraine in one fell swoop, beheading the Zelensky government, and installing a puppet regime in Kiev. This “Plan A” failed, as a result of overconfidence, bad intelligence, worst generalism, terrible logistics, and gruesome leadership on the ground. Their “Plan B” is a retreat to classic Soviet/Russian tactics: crushing small swaths of territory and terrorizing the Ukrainian civilian population with a planned crusade of war crimes.
But like the United States in Vietnam, the majority of the Ukrainian population is deeply opposed to the external aggressor. Instead of receiving the bottles of vodka promised for the invasion, Russian infantrymen were greeted with Molotov cocktails. Revelations about war crimes will only strengthen the resistance and will of Ukrainians, and time will only strengthen their resolve.
Therefore, Putin’s chances of actually provoking the situation on the ground and gaining a significant additional amount of territory seem low. In essence, it started with the control of 15% of Ukraine before the invasion, with the aim of gaining about 100%, and can end up with 20-25% at best. This is a passing grade on any test.
Also similar to the American experience in Vietnam, Putin faces a determined enemy with access to shrines and external bases. The United States has never controlled cutting off the supply of weapons to the Vietcong, and the Russians will also not be able to avoid significant aid to the Ukrainians. In fact, the Ukrainians gain advantages from particularly larger weapons across their borders, exceptional intelligence and cyber support, and much greater monetary resources than the Vietcong has had.
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Casualties are also expanding rapidly, both for Russian infantrymen and their equipment. Reliable estimates imply that Russians killed in action are headed for 20,000, a staggering number that nearly triples what the United States has lost in 20 years of eternal wars. The sinking of the Black Sea flagship, Moskva, was a stab at the center of the Russian Navy. More than a thousand Russian tanks were destroyed. This point of loss is untenable without Putin putting Russia on a general war footing, which will eventually have an effect on his control. at home, regardless of your media control. LBJ would perceive the possible and painful options that await Putin.
In some ways, Putin’s scenario is worse than that of the United States in Vietnam. Putin’s warring democratic parties (the United States, Europe’s top, all of NATO, Japan, Australia and others) account for only about 60% of global GDP. The Russian economy is only about 10%, so they are seriously in the economic sphere. China shows little interest in providing Russia with a lifeline, and if the U. S. While the US imposes secondary sanctions on those who do business with Russia, the economic scenario will change. they only get worse over time for Putin.
Fortunately for Kyiv, the burden of ing on Ukrainians, compared to the enormous length of Western economies, is quite low. is modest
President Zelensky has proven to be a master of communication, smoothly overcoming the clumsy and implausible Russian narrative of the overthrow of the “Nazi regime” in Kiev. In time, Zelensky’s abilities to sell his country’s cause will be his case.
Putin’s maximum likely maximum course of action will be to protect as much territory as possible before the “burning rate” in terms of Russians killed in combat, destroyed apparatus, crushing sanctions and foreign opprobrium actually comes into play. As an exit strategy, he probably hopes the West will pressure other Ukrainians to settle for an armistice that gives Russia de jure control over 20% of their nation.
This is unlikely at this time, given all the war crimes and fierce resistance of the Ukrainians. These two points will harden in the coming months. Putin has a bad hand of cards and, like the U. S. , he has a bad hand of cards. The U. S. in Vietnam is heading toward a primary defeat. Time is not on their side.