Drone strikes on Russian radar may have possibly crossed one of Moscow’s red lines when it comes to the possible use of nuclear weapons: the “disruption of the reaction movements of nuclear forces,” according to the text of a Kremlin decree signed by President Vladimir Putin in 2020.
Ukrainian drones reportedly attacked the 590th independent radio engineering center of military unit 84680 in the city of Kovilkino on Wednesday morning and April 11. Kovilkino is located in the Republic of Mordovia, about 360 miles from the Ukrainian border.
It houses a radar over the horizon 29B6 “Container”, which is part of the Russian network for reconnaissance and early warning of aerospace attacks, in addition to those carried out by ballistic missiles.
Sources say the effects of Wednesday’s attack are still being determined. Ukrainian media reported that the construction of the site’s command post broke down in the April 11 attack, while the Russian government said two unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) were shot down. Ukraine Pravda cited an unnamed Ukrainian defense. An intelligence source (DIU) stated that the final results of the strike are still being assessed.
Newsweek reached out to the Russian Defense Ministry and the Kremlin’s email for comment.
If the container radar formula took effect, the strikes may have simply fulfilled one of the “conditions determining the option for the Russian Federation to use nuclear weapons,” as explained in the 2020 presidential decree.
These include “receiving reliable data on the launch of ballistic missiles attacking the territories of the Russian Federation and/or its allies” and “the enemy’s use of nuclear weapons or other types of weapons of mass destruction on the territories of Russia. “and/or its allies. “
Other criteria are cited, such as “the enemy’s impact on a critical state or on military installations of the Russian Federation, the failure of which will result in the interruption of the reaction movements of nuclear forces,” and “aggression against the Russian Federation using traditional weapons, when the state’s way of life is threatened. “
The risk of nuclear escalation – whether through nuclear weapons or a disaster at one of the many civilian nuclear power plants in the combat zone – has haunted Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine since it began in February 2022.
Putin and his top sensible officials have warned against a nuclear confrontation provoked by Western involvement in the conflict, as have allied leaders, President Joe Biden added. The most significant considerations are Russian tactical nuclear warheads intended for local use on the battlefield. The Kremlin has never set a tangible “red line” beyond its core doctrinal documents.
In March, Putin said Western adversaries “must perceive that we also have weapons capable of hitting targets on their territory. “He added: “All of this threatens a clash with the use of nuclear weapons and the destruction of civilization. do they perceive?”
The risk of nuclear escalation has proven to be a tough tool for the Kremlin as it tries to block Western aid to Ukraine and push Kiev to make territorial and political concessions. Despite all the Russian risks, the U. S. has said it has noticed no signs that Moscow is preparing to use weapons of mass destruction in Ukraine.
Back in May 2022, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Alexei Zaitsev accused those recommending that Moscow use nuclear weapons of “deliberate lies,” adding: “Russia firmly adheres to the precept that there can be no winners in a nuclear war, and it will have to not lash out. “
Russia’s conduct, contrary to its rhetoric, has so far remained aligned with this principle. Ukraine has introduced several attacks on Russian territory that theoretically manage to exceed the thresholds set by Moscow’s nuclear doctrine, but the Kremlin has shown no aim for escalation.
Ukrainian drones and missiles have attacked airbases housing nuclear-capable bombers and targeted early precautionary aircraft, such as in the attacks on Russia’s Engels and Dyagilevo air bases in December 2022. Kyiv has also attacked Russian ships that are likely to be armed with missiles. nuclear-capable missiles.
At times, Moscow has responded with traditional weapons and by moving its forces to safer positions, rather than escalating the conflict. Still, Ukraine’s far-reaching measures have prompted lawsuits from Kyiv’s Western partners, much to the chagrin of Ukrainians living under constant Russian bombardment. and at the same time achieve an overwhelming and costly defense along the front line.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky predicted in the fall of 2022 that his Russian counterpart would not use nuclear weapons for fear of its own demise. “He understands that after the use of nuclear weapons he will no longer be able to preserve, so to speak, his life, and I am convinced of that,” Zelensky said of Putin.
4/18/24 4:00 AM a. m. ET: This article has been updated to include more data on nuclear rhetoric beyond Russia and long-range Ukrainian moves on Russian territory.
David Brennan is Newsweek’s diplomatic correspondent covering global politics and confrontations from London, with a particular focus on NATO, the European Union, and the Russia-Ukraine war. David joined Newsweek in 2018 and has since reported on key locations and summits in Europe and the South Caucasus. This includes detailed reports on the Baltic, Nordic and Central European regions, as well as Georgia and Ukraine. Originally from London, David graduated from Cambridge University with a major in the History of Empires and Revolutions. You can tap David on d. brennan@newsweek. com and stay with him on Twitter @DavidBrennan100.