A Crimean official said Thursday that Russian air defense forces thwarted a Ukrainian drone attack on the city of Sevastopol.
While Ukraine has not accepted duty for the alleged attack, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has made clear for months that retaking Crimea, a Ukrainian peninsula that Russia invaded and annexed in 2014, is now a primary purpose for his country in the war.
Lawrence C. Reardon, a professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire, told Newsweek that if Ukraine regains Crimea, the consequences may go beyond simply ending Russian President Vladimir Putin’s purpose of uniting Ukrainian territories into a “Novorossiya” (New Russia). . ).
“The loss of Crimea would be a blow to Novorossiya’s dream and threaten Putin’s grip on power,” Reardon said.
Mikhail Razvozhayev, the Russian-appointed governor of Sevastopol, wrote Thursday morning on his Telegram channel that two Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) were “shot down over the sea” and that “our defense forces continue to repel the attack. “
Razvozhayev made a claim last month when he posted on Telegram that air defenses had shot down 10 drones over Sevastopol in what he called a “failed Ukrainian attack. “
These separate incidents have not been independently verified, and Russia has also blamed Ukraine for other attacks in the region since the invasion began about a year ago.
In October, Russia said its Black Sea fleet had been attacked by Ukrainian drones near Sevastopol, and that Russia’s Saky air base in Crimea had been targeted in an attack in August that destroyed several fighter jets.
Like the drone strikes reported through Razvozhayev, Ukraine has claimed the duty for the other incidents in Crimea.
Mark N. Katz, a professor at George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government, told Newsweek that other people read too much about reports of drone strikes.
“It seems to me that there is a big difference between the launching of drone strikes by Ukraine against Russian positions in Crimea, some of which are being used to attack Ukraine, and a Ukrainian invasion of Crimea with the aim of recovering it from Russia,” Katz said. .
He added that Ukraine deserves to adopt a “great military effort” to reconquer Ukraine. However, Katz said that if Zelensky’s forces, despite everything, took Crimea, Putin “would look incredibly weak. “
“He and his friends will fight hard to prevent this from happening,” Katz said.
William Reno, a professor and chair of Northwestern University’s political science department, told Newsweek that if Ukraine is the center of the incidents in Crimea, Zelensky would likely have other plans beyond retaking the peninsula.
“While the White House sticks to the line that Crimea is part of Ukraine, some officials point out that Ukraine’s ability to harm Russia in Crimea could simply strengthen Ukraine’s hand in imaginable negotiations,” he said. the forces retake the southern parts of other occupied territories where Russian forces are supplied from Crimea. “
Crimea will be a major point in any long-term negotiations or peace agreement. Putin has long argued that Crimea, as well as the 4 territories illegally annexed through Russia in September, will need to identify themselves as Russian before peace talks can begin. On the other hand, Zelensky said that all Ukrainian territories, in addition to Crimea, will have to be considered as part of Ukraine again before his country accepts peace.
The BBC shared a new interview with Zelensky on Thursday in which he reiterated that he is willing to cede territory to Putin.
“Any territorial compromise would weaken us as a state,” the Ukrainian said.
Reno explained the difficulties Crimea would possibly bring when the war ends in negotiations, agreement or ceasefire.
“Right now, a large majority of Ukrainians believe that the reconquest of Crimea deserves to be an indispensable war goal,” he said. “Moscow and most Russians believe that Crimea is an integral component of Russia. This is probably not the case,” as is the case with the other occupied territories. Therefore, Crimea will be a focal point for imaginable negotiations. “
Newsweek has reached out to ministries in Ukraine and Russia for comment.
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