Approvals for new loans rose to 84700 months, with German harmonised inflation falling to -0. 4%
As markets calmed down before the first presidential debate, it’s time to conclude.
Here’s ours on increasing loan approvals:
And all the news about Covid-19.
Come back tomorrow! Gw
Another dayArray. . . Commentary of the Bank of England on the merits, or not, of negative interest rates.
This time it was Governor Andrew Bailey, who told Queen’s University Belfast that he did not rule them out. . . but it also recognizes that negative rates are a “mixture” that would create more demanding situations for the banking system.
Bailey also reiterated that the BoE had still come to trial whether to use below-zero rates for the first time or when.
The BoE is divided over the factor of reducing the bank rate below zero. Over the weekend, decision makers Silvana Tenreyro warned that they could play a role, only for Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden to argue that rates cannot be lowered. . .
Other highlights of Andrew Bailey’s speech include:
America’s confidence has recovered strongly this month, and more than expected, the family’s view of the labor market has improved.
The Conference Board’s monthly customer confidence rate rose to 101. 8 in September, a significant improvement from 86. 3 in August.
However, this leaves customer trust below prepandemic grades.
One of Donald Trump’s most sensible economic advisers said the U. S. economy still enjoys a V-shaped recovery from the pandemic.
Larry Kudlow, director of the US National Economic Council, has not been able to do so. The U. S. , highlighted figures for the housing, automotive and machinery sectors. The retail industry also looks great, he told CNBC, which mentioned the credits and debits that indicate that customer spending is solid.
Kudlow insists:
I can’t be waiting for the virus . . . but we’re not going to prevent the economy.
The V-shape is very intact.
Kudlow is right that housing demand has recovered and sales have peaked at 14 years.
But the newest industrial PMI in the U. S. It showed that the expansion slowed slightly, and more than 800,000 Americans register new unemployment applications each week. So the economy has in fact not fully recovered from Covid-19.
The New York Stock Exchange opened, but there’s a lot of drama on Wall Street.
Stocks are fairly stable, as investors cower before tonight’s first presidential debate (or overnight, if it’s in Europe).
The Dow Jones commercial average fell by 0. 15%, wasting 41 emissions to 27,542.
The S
The revelation that Donald Trump paid only $750 at the federal source of income taxes in 2016 added flavor to the debate, as investors prepare for turbulent weeks.
OANDA’s Craig Erlam sums up the mood:
Joe Biden still has a smart edge and a lot to lose, while the level of debate actually benefits President Trump as he seeks to close the gap. the debate in the background, which means he’ll probably get all the guns out of the fire.
We’re just over a month away from what’s going to be a choice for years. Covid overthrew the election. A year ago, Trump had it in his bag, now he has a significant deficit to fill and already on Election Day is surrounded by controversies, a hardening of the polls over the next month will rise to the drama.
The Guardian’s most recent research on the UK economy has emerged and shows that expansion is already weakening before the imposition of the newer Covid-19 restrictions.
In recent weeks, road traffic has cooled after the summer fever, inventory has fallen, layoffs have soared and national debt has reached a new record. But. . . retail sales have recovered and the Eat Out to Help Out program has increased untingArray. and reduces inflation.
So, with the Covid-19 instances and the end of the licensing program, it’s a dangerous time for the economy.
Here’s the full report:
The fall in German harmonized inflation to -0. 4% this month shows that Covid-19 has a disinflationary effect on economies, says Carsten Brzeski of ING.
He writes:
The negative base effect of low energy costs helps keep headline inflation low, but there is more: July’s VAT reduction is more visual in the costs of food, clothing, other customers’ goods and increasingly also in other recreational activities and package travel. At the same time, the fact that the increase in the costs of hotels and places to eat is still very much in line with the trend observed before the VAT reduction suggests that the tax cut is also being used for businesses and is not necessarily fully transferred to customers.
Going forward, German global inflation is expected to fall further before gradually recovering next year; at least if the German government sticks to the plan to cancel VAT collection in January. In July 2009, headline inflation was -0. 7% year-on-year; a record that can be damaged in October or November.
At the beginning of the crisis, the hypothesis had been raised that the existing crisis would be an inflationary or deflationary event. At the moment, for Germany, the conclusion is clear: it is disinflationary.
Inflation in Germany has fallen below zero, putting more pressure on the European Central Bank to stimulate the eurozone economy.
Consumer costs in Europe’s largest economy decreased by 0. 4% in September than last year, when they were harmonised with the rest of the EU. Prices also fell by 0. 4% per month, the Federal Bureau of Statistics reports.
This is a steeper decline than expected, and economists predict a 0. 1% decline in measurements.
Minimization is partly due to VAT relief in Germany (to inspire spending). Cheap power is a factor, with crude oil costs well below those of a year ago.
Here’s a reaction:
It’s time to make a summary.
Mortgage approvals in the UK have hit their peak since the credit crunch nearly thirteen years ago.
About 84,700 home loans were in August, the most active month since October 2007, according to new figures from the Bank of England. That’s about 66,000 in August, and much more than expected.
Real estate agents reported that August was exceptionally busy, thanks to the repressed call for following the closure and the holiday of the existing stamp duty. However, first-time buyers still face significant hurdle, with lenders taking strong action against major LTV mortgages.
Several British corporations have reported a decline in their operations as a result of the pandemic. The Greggs pastry chain is consultation with staff to reduce their hours, after September earnings only three-quarters of last year’s levels.
Greggs also includes more pieces on the menu (good news for Belgian bun lovers) and still plans to open more outlets, but regularly on city exits than on the main streets.
The city is not impressed: Greggs shares have dropped by almost 8%.
The card and gift card distributor Card Factory has fallen to a loss of 22 million pounds due to closure, while sweet supplier Hotel Chocolat lost 7 million pounds after missing sales on Easter Main Street.
Airport facilities organization John Menzies warned that market situations would remain challenging for the winter.
On the front:
After a moderate morning, European stock markets often record small losses today.
The FTSE hundred has now dropped 25 points, or 0. 3%, in 5902, with banks and agencies between the falls.
The cautious monetary effects of corporations like Greggs this morning have tempered the mood, says Fiona Cincotta of city index:
Monday’s optimistic temperament was replaced by a sense of caution, which caused European stock markets to fall. Optimism around a U. S. fiscal stimulus agreement has faded, the temperament is deteriorating amid a series of disappointing corporate publications.
Greggs warned that they opposed dubious trade prospects, which is not unexpected given that running away from home turns out to be a way of life for at least the next 6 months, if not longer. Job losses and reduced hours are looming. is that the headwinds outweigh the positives.
The German DAX (-0. 44%) and the French CAC (-0. 2%) are down as well, after the big gains from MondayArray . . . and before the Trump-Biden debate overnight.
Back in town, Greggs fell to the back of the FTSE 250 index, amid considerations about his outlook for the coming months.
Stocks have now dropped by 6% to 11. 45 euros, closer to the two-year low last week, after the bakery chain announced that September’s sales were three-quarters of last year’s levels.
Despite Greggs’ plans to lower prices and open more stores, investors seem involved in long-term transactions.
Russ Mold, of stockbroker AJ Bell, says Greggs will return to the general, but remains vulnerable to the pandemic.
“Greggs has taken the decision to go ahead and verify that his operations return to normal. Plans to open new retail outlets have been reactivated and some existing retail outlets now allow consumers to eat. Pastry enthusiasts will be extremely happy to know that Belgian bread is being reintroduced along with other pieces that have been missing while Greggs survived with a menu limited to the peak of the crisis.
“These movements can put Greggs in a more powerful position assuming the coronavirus scenario doesn’t get worse. If this is the case, the store will need to temporarily return to its basic operations. The bad news for the staff is that Greggs is going to lower prices by reducing schedules in stores.
“There is still a threat that the industry’s recent positive dynamics will continue. As the climate becomes bloody and rainy and unemployment is expected to rise, situations are favorable for consumers who want to stop buying. Local locks also obstruct Greggs’ recovery efforts. “
In Ireland, the unemployment rate has fallen since its all-time high, but it remains incredibly high.
Reuters has the details:
Ireland’s unemployment rate, in addition to those receiving COVID-19 transitional unemployment benefits, fell to 14. 7% at the end of September from 15. 3% the previous month, reported on Tuesday.
The unemployment rate, which before the crisis was 4. 8%, reached a record 28. 8% in early May, after 600,000 more people demanded special payment.
Excluding COVID-19 payments, due next April, the unemployment rate rose to 5. 4% in September from 5. 2% in August, according to the knowledge of the Central Bureau of Statistics.
Meanwhile, in the euro area, economic confidence has taken a step forward for the fifth consecutive month, it remains weak.
The European Commission’s monthly sentiment indicator in the euro area increased to 91. 1 numbers this month from 87. 5 in August.
This is ahead of the forecast (for an increase of up to 89. 0), but continues to decrease than before the pandemic.
Confidence in the sector has recovered, despite the accumulation of Covid-19 instances over the summer, which is forcing new restrictions to be imposed in some countries.
The sector’s confidence rate went from -17. 2 to -11. 1, while trade confidence went from -12. 8 to -11. 1.
The European public is also less pessimistic, with the confidence rate falling from -14. 7 to -13. 9.
Despite growing loan approvals, it is difficult to get into the genuine real estate ladder.
Some lenders have withdrawn some loan donations for which they have small deposits, while Nationwide prevents others from borrowing from their parents.
Matthew Fleming-Duffy, Independent Cherry Mortgage Loan
“Mortgage stakeholders, from structured banks and corporations to lawyers and surveyors, still have licensed staff and working tables. In other words, if the number of files is greater, lenders’ ability to function is lately limited.
“Product selection is still limited, especially for higher LTVs. There are a handful of lenders offering products with a 90% LTV, some that distinguish first-time buyers by their exclusive eligibility and others provide guarantee loans.
Summer is a quiet time for real estate agents and genuine lenders, as other people are more interested in summer vacations than asset visits. But not this year.
The Covid-19 pandemic “completely interrupted” the UK asset market in August, says Hina Bhudia, wife of Knight Frank Finance:
Interest rates remain incredibly low and the low debt charge is to blame for a percentage of this activity.
“Most of the activities we’re seeing are less than 75% of the loan-to-value ratio, and lenders need a higher percentage of that market. This means that product selection for borrowers at this time increases day by day.
“The increase in transactions at this point also means that delays between filing an application and obtaining approval vary greatly from lender to lender, so borrowers want to verify before proceeding.
“Relocation remains moderate, as many borrowers decide to go to insurance, stick to their existing bank, and avoid additional debt, especially when the gains of many consumers have been affected.
Here’s a reaction to UK loan figures:
The Bank of England issues that loan approvals continue to decline in 2020 than in 2019, despite a hot August.
Today it says:
The loan market continued to show more signs of recovery in August. In net terms, families borrowed another 3. 1 billion pounds guaranteed for their households, having borrowed 2. 9 billion pounds in July. Mortgages reached 500 million pounds in April and are still slightly below the average of 4. 2 billion pounds in the six months ended February 2020. The accumulation during the month reflects a gross indebtedness of more than 18. 8 billion pounds than the February point prior to Covid of sterling. 23. 7 billion.
The number of home loan approvals continued to increase considerably in August, from 84,700 to 66,300 in July.
This is the highest number of approvals since October 2007, but only partially compensates for the weakness observed between March and June: in total, there were 418,000 approvals in 2020, to 524,000 at the same time in 2019.
HIPOTECAS approvals in the UK peaked at almost 13 years in August, as the market recovered from its sadness.
At 84,700, lenders have signed more home loans than at any other time since October 2007 (when the credit crisis began at the start of the currency crisis).
However, customers borrowed more moderately and higher at just three hundred million pounds last month. This shows that some families are cautious, fearing an increase in unemployment this winter.
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