The UK may be in the midst of a momentary wave of the coronavirus, with the number of cases shown exceeding the so-called peak of the first outbreak.
On September 27, another 5,693 people tested positive for the infection, a possible understatement due to the “weekend effect” when the notification rate is artificially low.
Still, that number is higher than the 5,130 incidents shown on April 8, the same day the government reported a record 1,073 other people who died from the infection.
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But as coronavirus cases rise across much of the UK, deaths remain low, with figures released on September 27 showing that another 17 people die within 28 days of testing positive.
Since local blockages appear to be the ‘new normal’, many other people certainly wonder why the increase in coronavirus cases corresponds to few deaths.
An investigation of official figures suggests that the genuine rise of coronavirus in the UK would possibly have been darker than ministers claimed.
According to the Guardian, the actual death toll on April 8, 1,445.
As of April 29, mortality figures announced at Downing Street press conferences included only those who died in the hospital as a result of a positive coronavirus test.
Subsequently, deaths were included in the count in all contexts, adding up those with symptoms not yet taken.
Research suggests that at the height of the epidemic, more than 1,000 more people died each day from coronavirus in the UK for 22 consecutive days.
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In addition to many unreported deaths, insufficient testing meant that thousands of coronavirus cases were most likely missed.
“The tests are much better now,” Professor Michael Tildesley of the University of Warwick told Yahoo UK.
“6,000 instances shown is very different from the 6,000 shown in April.
“We’re not at the same peak because we’re seeing more cases now. “
Professor James Naismith of the Rosalind Franklin Institute agreed and told Yahoo UK: “The instances are not comparable, we had between 100,000 and 200,000 instances a day in March, we simply had no way of obtaining them. Measure.
“We are [now] a fraction of the cases [we were at the beginning of the epidemic].
“We were lucky if we detected one in 20 cases before testing. “
This was echoed through Health Secretary Matt Hancock, who said on September 24: “We estimated through surveys that more than 100,000 people a day [in April] were contracting the disease, but we discovered only about 6,000 and tested positive. “
It is recommended that anyone who has a fever, cough or loss of smell indicates coronavirus be tested.
If they test positive, NHS Traceability and Testing System workers are succeeding in requesting contact points from others with which the patient has recently spent time.
The patient and their contacts must isolate themselves for up to 14 days, “without leaving home for any reason”.
The NHS Test and Trace application, which was introduced in England and Wales on September 24, analyzes a user’s local domain for positive instances they may have crossed.
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The complete and traceability formula has been seriously criticized, and experts have described it as “weak and unfair defense” that “creates [a] false sense of security. “
However, about 220,000 individual tests are processed every day, and the government expects to increase capacity to 500,000 during Halloween.
“[Now] we are testing more people online than just hospitals or nursing homes,” Professor Tildesley said.
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While the death rate appears to be low at the moment, experts are concerned that the number of deaths will increase unless the transmission is controlled through local locks and other restrictions.
“There is a delay,” Professor Tildesley said, “cases accumulate before hospitalizations and deaths. “
On 27 September, another 266 people in the UK were admitted to the hospital with coronavirus, up from 3564 on 1 April.
Although hospitalizations remain low, there has been an increase in cases among younger age groups, which are less likely to expand headaches or symptoms, but can spread the infection smoothly.
“Other young people can [continue] infecting elderly parents,” Professor Tildesley said.
The Office of National Statistics revealed on 28 September that “positivity rates [in England] increase over time among others under the age of 35 who had had direct socially remote contact with others age six or older. 18 to 69 years old. “
“[An infection] first spreads in other young people because they are out there and more sociable,” Professor Naismith said. “Most other young people don’t even know they have it. “
Dr Michael Head of the University of Southampton told Yahoo UK that a “transition from a younger to a vulnerable population” has been “demonstrated in recent weeks in France and Spain. “
If other vulnerable people get the infection, advances in the remedy can lead to better results than before.
At the beginning of the epidemic, other people who required hospitalization received supportive care, such as ventilation, while their immune systems worked to naturally combat coronavirus.
In June, scientists at the University of Oxford discovered that cheap steroid dexamethasone reduced death by a third in ventilated patients.
A review of seven coordinated studies through the World Health Organization (WHO) later found that dexamethasone and other steroids, hydrocortisone and methylprednisolone reduced the death rate by about one-fifth (20%).
At the back of the findings, WHO has published the rules that come with steroids in the remedy of critically ill patients.
The NHS said it will “take swift action” so that those who can take advantage of steroids will get them, “adding one more weapon to the arsenal in the global fight against COVID-19. “
“We know we have medication to treat hospitalized patients,” Professor Tildesley said.
“Hospitalizations may increase, but deaths may not. Patients who are ill enough to go to the hospital may have better results. “
It has been warned that those who were vulnerable enough to become seriously ill with coronavirus may have died on the first wave, Professor Naismith says.
“There are new elders,” he says. People are rebuilding the source of the elders.
“People are [now] six months older, six months more vulnerable, plus others [have been diagnosed with] diabetes [than at the beginning of the epidemic]. “
Any suggestion that collective immunity reduce the mortality rate is “just a hypothesis,” according to Professor Naismith.
Professor Tildesley agreed, adding: “We are still far from herd immunity. “