Central Asian countries have been loading a series of armed drones since the early 2020s.
In May, Iran opened a factory in Tajikistan to manufacture its Ababil-2 drones, errant single-use munitions that hit targets and explode. Used for reconnaissance and electronic warfare.
On the other hand, Turkey exported its famous Bayraktar TB2 drone to Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan and reached an agreement with Kazakhstan to manufacture Turkish Anka-S drones in that country, a much more complicated drone than the Ababil-2. Tajikistan also briefly purchased TB2. The Kyrgyz TB2 have already given the country credit in its border clash with Tajikistan.
The Turk has exported its TB2 drone to dozens of countries, leaving behind its Russian and Chinese competition. You may enjoy good fortune in Central Asia for several reasons.
Suleyman Ozeren, a senior lecturer at American University and a senior fellow at the Orion Policy Institute, believes that “Turkey will most likely have an advantage over other competitors in Central Asia for two reasons. “
“First, Turkey’s drone generation turned out to be superior to Russia’s and Iran’s drone generation,” he told me. “Secondly, for Turkey, the sale of drones to Central Asian countries is more than military cooperation. “
“Through ‘drone diplomacy,’ Turkey intends to increase its political, economic and military cooperation with the members of the Organization of Turkish States (OTS),” he said. “For example, TB2 tips the scales in favor of Kyrgyzstan in Kyrgyzstan-Tajik border conflict. “
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has unwittingly helped Turkey expand its already gigantic share of the Central Asian drone market.
“The Russian military’s aggression against Ukraine has created deep considerations among Central Asian states about Moscow’s regional intentions,” Ozeren said. “For example, the agreement between Kazakhstan and Turkey is one of the externalities of the war in Ukraine. “
“By the same token, the U. S. “The US and EU can see the development of Turkey’s influence in Central Asia as a positive progression for now,” he added.
However, “drone diplomacy” is not in the “risks and loopholes”, which can cause “countermeasures” from China, Russia and Iran.
“In the face of Kyrgyzstan’s strong objections, Turkey can simply end drone sales to Tajikistan, which then turned to Iran and signed a deal with Tehran,” Ozeren said. “Without realizing it, Turkey allowed Iranian influence to increase in Tajikistan. “
“More importantly, while in the short term, Turkey’s international relations with drones may deepen rivalries and conflicts in Central Asia, where Ankara’s positive influence lies in its comfortable measures of force,” he added.
Then there is China, which already perceives Turkey as a “serious security challenge. “
“The civil war in Libya is a main spectacle for the Bayraktar TB2, which surpassed the Chinese Wing Loong,” Ozeren said. Organization for Cooperation in the Cessation of Kyrgyz-Tajik Hostilities and Beijing’s Regional Influence. “
Samuel Bendett, an analyst at the Center for Naval Analysis, noted that TB2 sales to Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan obviously imply that “these countries are turning to Turkey for a market share of MALE (medium altitude and long duration) drones. “
“Other drones fall into the category of short-range, vastate munitions, so it’s transparent that those states favor a greater option for other categories of drones,” he told me.
“Central Asian countries are very likely to keep their features open and supply drones from other states, while investing in the development of domestic drones (unmanned aerial vehicles), such as Kazakhstan today,” he said. probably a Central Asian country would buy all its drones in the same state to make sure it didn’t have a single supplier for all its needs. “
“It is therefore transparent whether China and Turkey will be the only key drone generation suppliers in the region, with Russian, American, Israeli and Iranian drones already in the region in service with those states,” he added. Central Asian states will seek to diversify their supplies, especially if countries are caught in geopolitical competition, such as Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.
“Ultimately, I also think that most of those countries will also start investing in domestic drone solutions, drone leaders for drone generation that they can’t build themselves or that make sense geopolitically. “