Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at ASPI, said it was “too early” to say whether the United States and Iran can avoid a “regional escalation” after the United States introduced retaliatory measures opposed to Iranian-backed targets in Iraq and Syria.
The U. S. airstrikes are a reaction to the drone attack in Jordan, in which 3 U. S. soldiers were killed.
U. S. President Joe Biden has warned in the past about a “phased response” over time, so this airstrike is unlikely to be the last.
U. S. Central Command says the military hit more than 85 targets and more than 125 precision munitions.
“The United States will have to carefully calibrate its current measures against the IRGC and militias in a way that degrades its ability to conduct additional strikes against US forces,” Davis told Sky News Australia.
“But [they want to make sure] that it doesn’t cross some kind of internal red line with Tehran that would lead to swift Iranian retaliation — directly or — through the exploitation of the Strait of Hormuz, for example. I think it is too early to say that we can avoid this escalation in the region.
“[Iran] can simply respond in the Red Sea with additional Houthi attacks, or it can simply do whatever in the Strait of Hormuz, but the Biden administration is obviously desperate for an escalation of this war.
“In a sense, it’s absolutely understandable – it needs a regional war – but at the same time, it considers to some extent Tehran’s initiative to see how far they can take the Biden administration and what the red line of the Biden administration is. “
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