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In this article, we’re going to take a look at the five largest economies in the world through 2040. To skip our in-depth analysis, you can skip straight to the world’s five largest economies through 2040.
The current scenario of the global economy doesn’t give us a clear picture of the near-term economic situation with certainty. The recent major events that led to global economic uncertainty began with the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic, which was followed by worldwide lockdowns, supply chain distributions, international trade cut-offs, downsizing, and most importantly, a crisis in the global health sector. As we mentioned earlier, the economy seems to be in the recovery stage with global growth expected to remain steady at 3.1% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025.
According to a study conducted through The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS), the world’s fastest-growing years of economic expansion are probably over. Population expansion is weakening, climate replenishment, and rising geopolitical risks, among other factors, will affect have an effect on the global economy. However, Asia’s emerging economies and primary economies are likely to continue to catch up with richer countries. According to the IMF’s GDP forecast for 2030, 16 Asian countries will be among the leading economies. China, India, Indonesia and Japan will be among the six most sensible economies by 2050, along with the United States and Germany. According to the forecast of Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS) By 2075, China will be the largest economy, followed by India. in second place, the United States in third place and Indonesia in fourth. Nigeria and Pakistan will rise to fifth and sixth respectively by 2075.
The global economy is expected to grow an average of 2. 8% annually between 2024 and 2029 and then decline, according to The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS). This shows a slow economic expansion compared to an average expansion rate of 3. 6% over the 10 years prior to the global currency crisis and 3. 2% in the decade prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. The slow speed of economic expansion is due to the slowdown in the rate of population expansion. In the last 50 years, the world’s population has halved. According to UN projections, the world’s population is expected to increase to about 2 billion in the next 30 years. This would mean that by 2050, the world’s population will reach 9. 7 billion, up from 8 billion today. The world’s population could reach the projected 10. 4 billion by the mid-2080s. In addition to population, economists expect weaker productivity to be another main explanation for why sluggish GDP expansion in the future.
Despite sluggish global economic growth, emerging economies will continue to grow faster than evolved economies. China will most likely overtake the United States by 2035 and be the world’s largest economy. China, India and Indonesia beat Goldman Sachs economists’ forecasts for 2011, while Brazil, Russia and Latin America fell short of Goldman Sachs’ forecasts. According to economists at The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS):
“We expect the weight of global GDP to shift (even) further towards Asia over the next 30 years. “
Corporations are always a key element in driving the growth of an economy. The US is way ahead of most economies as far as the dominance of corporations is concerned around the world. Leading firms including Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) are key to the US economic progress. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) are bigger than most economies, having a market capitalization of $2.92 trillion and $3.12 trillion, as of February 10.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is a big player in the tech sector. On February 1, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) reported its earnings for the first quarter of fiscal 2024. The company posted earnings per share of $2.18, beating consensus estimates by $0.08 per share. The revenue came in at $119.58 billion, surpassing estimates by $1.31 billion. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) made the following comments during its Q1 2024 earnings call:
“We achieved record earnings in more than two dozen countries and regions, reaching all-time highs in Europe and the rest of the Asia-Pacific region. We also continue to see double-digit expansion in many emerging markets, with record highs in Malaysia, Mexico, the Philippines, Poland and Turkey, as well as quarterly December records in India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and Chile. In Services, we set an all-time record for earnings, with double-digit year-over-year expansion in paid subscriptions.
Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) is a leading global generation company. On January 30, Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) announced its results for the second quarter of fiscal 2024. The company reported consistent earnings with a consistent percentage of $2. 93, beating estimates of $0. 16. Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) earnings totaled $62. 02 billion in the second quarter of 2024, beating the market consensus of $888. 19 million. The company continues to expand its cloud and AI network. Here are some of the comments of the moment. Quarter 2024 Earnings Call:
“This is a record quarter driven by the continued strength of Microsoft Cloud, which surpassed $33 billion in revenue, a 24% increase. We’ve gone from talking about AI to applying it at scale by infusing AI into each and every layer of our generation stack, winning new consumers, and helping to generate new benefits and productivity gains. Now I’ll highlight examples of our momentum and progress, starting with Azure. Azure recovered components this quarter thanks to our lead in AI. Azure offers maximum productive functionality for AI education and inference across the widest variety of AI accelerators, adding the latest from AMD and NVIDIA, as well as our own Azure Maia silicon. And with Azure AI, we provide access to the maximum productive variety of core and open-source models, adding LLMs and SLMs, all deeply integrated with Azure infrastructure, data, and teams.
Now let’s take a look at the world’s largest economies through 2040.
25 Largest Economies in the World by 2040
Our Methodology
We’ve compiled the world’s largest economies through 2040 based on projections made through The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS). To check the scope for subjectivity, we also analyze the IMF and PwC forecasts for the world’s largest economies in 2028 and 2050, respectively. To rank the world’s largest economies through 2040, we use the genuine GDP projected for 2040 at The Goldman Sachs Group. Global Economics Paper by Inc. (NYSE:GS) The Path to 2075. For countries with genuine GDP projected for 2040, we use population as a tiebreaker. We collect demographic knowledge from the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
By the way, Insider Monkey is an online investment page that tracks the movements of corporate experts and the hedging budget. Using other consensus approaches, we identified the most productive inventory options among more than 900 hedging budgets that make an investment in U. S. stocks. Top 10 Consensuses Hedge fund stocks outperformed the S index
Real GDP forecast (2040): $1. 2 trillion
Population Forecast (2040): 39,279,000
Malaysia is one of the fastest growing economies in the world and its population is expected to reach 39,279,000 by 2040. Malaysia’s real GDP is expected to grow to $1.2 trillion by 2040. Malaysia will be the 25th largest economy in the world by 2040.
Real GDP forecast (2040): $1. 2 trillion
Population forecast (2040): 70,916,000
Thailand’s population is expected to reach 70,916,000 by 2040, and the genuine GDP is expected to reach $1. 2 trillion. Thailand will rank among the world’s largest economies by 2040.
Real GDP forecast (2040): $1. 4 trillion
Population forecast (2040): 145,022,000
The Philippines is expected to have a population of 145,022,000 until 2040. The Philippines is expected to have a genuine GDP of 1. 4 trillion dollars until 2040.
Real GDP Forecast (2040): $1.5 Trillion
Population forecast (2040): 37,043,000
Poland’s population is expected to reach 37,043,000 by 2040 and genuine GDP to reach $1. 5 trillion. Poland will be among the world’s largest economies until 2040.
Real GDP forecast (2040): $1. 6 trillion
Population forecast (2040): 320,780,000
Nigeria is one of the richest African countries. Real GDP is expected to reach $1. 6 trillion by 2040. With a projected population of 320,780,000, Nigeria will be one of the largest economies in the world by 2040.
Real GDP forecast (2040): $1. 6 trillion
Population Forecast (2040): 322,596,000
Pakistan is expected to have a similar real GDP of $1.6 trillion as Nigeria. The population of Pakistan is expected to reach 322,596,000 by 2040.
Real GDP forecast (2040): $1. 7 trillion
Population forecast (2040): 196,526,000
Bangladesh is one of the fastest growing economies in Asia and its real GDP is expected to reach $1. 7 trillion by 2040. With a projected population of 196,526,000, Bangladesh will be one of the largest economies in the world until 2040.
Real GDP Forecast (2040): $1.9 Trillion
Population Forecast (2040): 143,423,000
The population of Egypt is expected to reach 143,423,000 by 2040 and the real GDP is expected to grow to $1.9 trillion. Egypt ranks among the largest economies in the world by 2040.
Real GDP Forecast (2040): $2.2 Trillion
Population forecast (2040): 93,058,000
Turkey is one of the largest economies in the world and its real GDP is expected to reach $2. 2 trillion by 2040. Turkey’s population is expected to reach 93,058,000 by 2040.
Real GDP forecast (2040): $2. 3 trillion
Population Forecast (2040): 30,356,000
Australia’s genuine GDP is expected to reach $2. 3 trillion and the country’s population is expected to reach $30,356,000 by 2040. Australia is one of the largest economies in the world.
Real GDP forecast (2040): $2. 4 trillion
Population Forecast (2040): 44,881,000
The population of Saudi Arabia is expected to reach 44,881,000 by 2040 and the real GDP is expected to grow to $2.4 trillion. Saudi Arabia ranks 15th among the largest economies in the world by 2040.
Real GDP Forecast (2040): $2.6 Trillion
Population Forecast (2040): 49,320,000
South Korea has a population forecast of 49,320,000 for 2040. South Korea’s real GDP is expected to reach $2.6 trillion by 2040.
Real GDP forecast (2040): $2. 7 trillion
Population forecast (2040): 55,258,000
Italy is one of the richest countries in Europe and its real GDP is expected to reach $2. 7 trillion by 2040. Italy’s population is expected to reach 55,258,000 by 2040.
Real GDP forecast (2040): $2. 8 trillion
Population forecast (2040): 43,823,000
Canada will be the twelfth largest economy by 2040 and its real GDP is expected to reach $2. 8 trillion. By 2040, Canada’s population is expected to reach 43,823,000.
Real GDP forecast (2040): $3 trillion
Population forecast (2040): 141,055,000
Mexico is one of the world’s emerging economies. Mexico’s expected genuine GDP is $3 trillion and its population is expected to reach 141,055,000 by 2040.
Real GDP forecast (2040): $3. 5 trillion
Population forecast (2040): 230,132,000
Brazil’s population is expected to reach 230,132,000 by 2040 and the genuine GDP is expected to reach $3. 5 trillion. Brazil will rank as the tenth largest economy in the world by 2040.
Real GDP forecast (2040): $3. 7 trillion
Population forecast (2040): 137,111,000
Russia forecasts a population of 137,111,000 by 2040. Se expects Russia’s real GDP to reach $3. 7 trillion by 2040.
Real GDP Forecast (2040): $3.9 Trillion
Population forecast (2040): 66,151,000
France is one of the richest European countries. The French population is expected to reach 66,151,000 by 2040 and real GDP will reach $3. 9 trillion.
Real GDP forecast (2040): $4 trillion
Population forecast (2040): 308,165,000
Indonesia forecasts a population of 308,165,000 until 2040. Indonesia’s real GDP is expected to reach $4 trillion until 2040.
Real GDP forecast (2040): $4. 3 trillion
Population forecast (2040): 70,689,000
The UK is one of the largest economies in the world and will be the sixth largest economy until 2040. The genuine GDP of the United Kingdom is expected to reach $4. 3 trillion and its population is expected to reach 70,689,000 by 2040.
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Disclosure: None. The World’s 25 Largest Economies to 2040 is published on Insider Monkey.