The U. S. election is a week away, and the eyes of the world are watching.
Here are the prospects of more than a dozen countries, reported through the ABC News team around the world, from Sao Paulo to Seoul, from Hong Kong to Havana.
Mexico is very pleased to be absent from the 2020 crusade after fulfilling what many have called an election pi-ata for Donald Trump in 2016.
Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, or AMLO, has a smart date with President Trump, but he may have a better date with former Vice President Joe Biden, as his possible presidency will mean less tension with up disorders like a border and Central American wall. After Trump forced AMLO to tighten its immigration policy or spread over sanctions, Biden’s victory may mean a complete reboot of the narrative and a more “humanitarian” immigration policy, as before.
Anne Laurent back from Mexico City, Mexico.
Trump and Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro express an ideology explained through their conservatism and populism. Bolsonaro wants Trump at the White House to legitimize his presidency in Brazil and give him a term for a moment; if Trump loses, Bolsonaro will be further away globally and at home.
Sources close to Bolsonaro and his administration expressed a deep fear for the U. S. election and what a replacement of the administration could mean for the relationship. A user close to Bolsonaro and his wife Michelle said he prays to God every day for Trump to win.
In particular, Brazil wants economic and technological partnerships with the United States, adding new military technologies and a club at the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, or OECD, while Trump has declared Brazil the top non-NATO best friend and subsidized its offering. To enroll in the OECD, a Biden White House can be more complicated, given disagreements over human rights, climate change, the Amazon and more.
Aicha El Hammar Castano reported from Brussels, Belgium.
As the United States and Cuba began to strengthen and relations between Cold War adversaries thawed, Trump’s election struck any hope of normalized relations.
The Cuban government believes that if Trump wins re-election, it will strengthen the economic measures opposed to Havana and aggravate the island nation’s economic crisis, while Trump said last week that he is in a position to renegotiate with Havana “at the right time,” “His management has made virtually no effort so far, and Cubans don’t expect him to do so much sooner. “
If Biden wins, the Cuban government expects him to return to the Obama-era agreement of which he was a part, but they do not expect complete normalization. Biden will have to maintain some restrictions, perhaps upon learning that the Florida electorate will demand strict measures to keep them in the Democratic fold, after Hillary Clinton lost there in 2016.
Mara Valdés back from Havana, Cuba.
For Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sissi, Trump’s good electoral fortune turns out to be of paramount importance: he had a cold date with former President Barack Obama, whose administration rebuked Egypt for its human rights record and, at one point, suspended the US. help from the army.
In Trump’s first year, his administration also turned down aid, but subsidized it. Since then, Egypt has intensified its crackdown on Islamist, liberal and secular opposition, imprisoning thousands of people and banning all kinds of protests, and the Trump administration has largely stopped rebuking Cairo directly, apart from some comments about Americans imprisoned in Egyptian cells. “We are not here to lecture,” Trump told Arab leaders in the Saudi capital of Riyadh in 2017.
When the Black Lives Matter protests broke out, Egypt’s heavily state-controlled media defended Trump. A famous presenter, known for his eccentric views, accused the banned Muslim Brothers of sowing chaos in america and overthrowing Trump.
Biden said he would not stick to a road, tweeting in July: “No more blank checks for Trump’s ‘favorite dictator,’ referring to Trump’s description of el-Sissi. The former vice president commented on the release of Mohamed Amashah, a New Jersey medical student on hunger strike who spent more than a year in pre-trial detention for holding a “Freedom for All Prisoners” sign in the iconic Tahrir Square.
If he wins, Biden will most likely put pressure on el-Sissi on a variety of human rights issues, with several other U. S. citizens still languishing in Egyptian prisons, adding several relatives of Mohamed Soltan, an Egyptian activist in the United States and a former prisoner who led efforts to free political prisoners in Egypt.
Hatem Maher reported from Cairo, Egypt.
The official Palestinian position on the US election is silent and neutral, yet Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh spoke on behalf of many Palestinians before this month when he said, “God if Trump wins re-election. “
Palestinian leaders have severed all ties with Trump’s leadership after moving the U. S. embassy to Jerusalem and management has tried to arm them firmly to settle for their peace plan with the Israelis, including cutting aid to Palestinian hospitals.
“The Palestinians are watching the U. S. election closely. No U. S. president has done as much damage to the Palestinian cause as President Trump,” Professor Ghassan al-Khattib of Birzeit University near Ramallah told ABC News. “He has harmed the Palestinians and exaggerated his own for Israel. “
That’s exactly why Trump has won so much help in Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is fighting for his political survival and awaiting trial in January 2021, would be delighted to see Trump re-elected. A Trump victory would be his political position at home. , would allow continuity while boosting new relations with other Arab countries and keeping the Palestinians in their current position, a very favorable position for the Israeli right.
A Biden presidency may mean a more difficult line opposed to Netanyahu, especially the annexation of the West Bank and its human rights record, and the return of divisions over the iran nuclear deal.
But this will not necessarily give the Palestinians a special touch as Arab neighbors approach the Israeli government. Their diplomatic losses in the United States and Arab countries in the Middle East will take a long time to resolve, if they can be restored. Not at all.
Bruno Notta and Nasser Atta reported from Jerusalem, Israel.
As with many facets of life in Iran, revisions to the U. S. presidential election are among government officials and the general public, and getting genuine responses from the latter organization is complicated in those tense political times.
The most important factor for Iran is the long term Iran nuclear agreement, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA. The existing Iranian government, led by President Hassan Rohani and his foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, is in a position to revive the agreement and bring together existing signatories to negotiate a new agreement if Biden takes office.
But conservatives and top leaders of the harsh crops of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard say the Islamic Republic will not negotiate with those who killed the high-ranking general in the army wing, Qassem Soleimani. While Trump sent the order, they make no difference between him and Biden, claiming soleimani killed across the United States and that this promises an end to negotiations with the United States.
For the Iranian people, sadness is the ultimate dominant feeling, disappointed and fed up on both sides, has no hope in conservative or reformist management that governs the country, nor in a Republican or Democrat in the Oval Office.
Trump says he will negotiate a “better” deal with Iran in his current term and come with Iran’s ballistic missile program. But the army’s strength is non-negotiable regardless of the value and number of sanctions imposed on the country, or who wins Iran’s presidential election in 2021. The other Iranians still do not forget their vulnerability during the eight-year war with Iraq in the 1980s, how remote Tehran was and how the country deserves to rise.
Somayeh Malekian reported from Tehran, Iran.
Shortly after the news that Trump tested positive for COVID-19 came to Afghanistan, it was also reported that the Taliban had prayed, and even arranged a prayer, for Trump’s urgent recovery, which sent a negative signal to many Afghans, not that they needed it after the United States signed a historic agreement with the Taliban, which gave the depressing organization greater political acceptance.
This agreement opened the door to an organization that until recently was thought of as a terrorist organization to become a giant political organization, which although blacklisted by the United Nations and lists of proscription from some countries, its leaders have begun to enjoy freedom and set up their organization in meetings with other foreign partners.
Ordinary Afghans, who now have access to social media and talk to each other online, think Trump is on good terms with the Taliban; if he wins, the Taliban may return to the force to rule the country, many fear. The bad memories of the Taliban’s brutal reign are still fresh, in fact they don’t need the organization to be to rule the country.
“I don’t know about the U. S. election. All I need and dream about is a nonviolent Afghanistan, but I hear Trump is a friend of the Taliban. I hope he doesn’t win,” said Hussain Ali, 45, a former street vendor, promoting new fruit in a wheelbarrow on the busy streets of Kabul. “He can simply impose us on the Taliban. All I care about is our own country, but since Americans are worried about Afghanistan, it’s better for users to force in because Trump supports the Taliban. “
Laila Haidary, a women’s rights activist who also runs a detox center in Kabul, told ABC News: “Many other people think the Taliban have replaced it, but I see no replacement in its policies toward women. Whoever wins the U. S. election, I hope I don’t turn a blind eye to the Taliban. Afghanistan is currently in a very fragile situation. Any small mistake can replace all the good fortune and sacrifices of the last 20 years. “
Aleem Agha reported from Kabul, Afghanistan.
It is difficult to do so in the recent history of a more momentous US presidential election for Britain, Europe, and much of global foreign policy, from industry to climate action.
A term of office for Trump will be a reaffirmation of the nation’s populist followed first by the British Conservative government, as well as by other European countries such as Hungary and autocrats from Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the Philippines.
Biden’s victory will leave allies like Prime Minister Boris Johnson away with no immediate prospect of an industrial deal, Brexit negotiations will fail, and his special date with Trump and Jared Kushner will be redundant. Paris to Berlin will be audible.
The hope is that a Biden leadership will bring U. S. foreign policy back to the fold of Western liberal consensus and resume its position at the most sensible table. With Russia’s shared threats to China and, more immediately, the pandemic and climate change, there will be a lot of business at hand, so wait for a long line of world leaders heading to biden’s Oval Office.
If Trump wins a one-moment term, silence will be deafening, but he can also strengthen the hand of those who over the age of 4 have shown that much of the world can continue without Uncle Sam taking it by the hand at every step. The way.
Ian Pannell back from London, England.
No foreign counter-control is as broad and debatable in the 2020 elections as Russia. Intelligence agencies warned that Russia is repeating its intrusion efforts since 2016, having concluded that it favors Trump. The FBI warned that Russia, this time, is leading an effort to discredit Biden, and according to the US Treasury, Russia is leading an effort to discredit Biden, and according to the US Treasury, russia is leading an effort to discredit Biden. But it’s not the first time Department, which includes the use of a Russian agent in the Ukrainian parliament to publicize unfounded conspiracy theories that were taken through Trump. Campaign.
Trump has never abandoned his promises to improve relations with Moscow and avoided criticizing President Vladimir Putin, while Biden maintains western governments’ consensus that Putin is a threat.
Overall, however, Russian officials expect few improvements in relations, regardless of who wins.
Most Kremlin observers are celebrating Trump’s disruptive influence on U. S. relations with its NATO allies. But despite Trump’s kindness, in truth, the political whirlwind of the Russia Gate scandal and Russia’s provocative acts abroad have led to a worsening of the relationship, and Russia is continually hit by attacks. sanctions imposed through Congress.
In Moscow, some are involved in a Biden presidency meaning an even more bellicose attitude toward Russia, but on a key issue, Biden is more conciliatory: he said he would seek to make the last primary nuclear weapons treaty between Russia and the United States bigger. United States, known as New START. Before it expires on February 5, 2021, Moscow also needs an extension, but the Trump administration is about to let the deal expire.
Patrick Reevell back from Dublin, Ireland.
In France, a historically skeptical country in the United States, at a time when Trump’s victory will be noticed through Maximum as the last nail in the superpower’s coffin. French preaspectnt. Although few saw it as the victory of a “true leader” in the other aspect of the pond, Biden enjoyed generalArray by adding positions as high as the Elysus Palace.
Biden was expected to bring the United States back to the Paris weather agreement and foreign organizations such as the World Health Organization, essentially returning to a more classic role on the foreign stage.
“What is very vital in the foreign context is that the United States can play its part as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, a member fully engaged in multilateral affairs,” Macron recently said. For France in particular, American industry War and price lists set through the Trump administration, whose heavily French products such as wine, are a point of discord.
Moreover, returning to classic US international relations would reassure this European country in more than one tactic: the developing divisions of American society reflect those of Europe and those of right-wing populists in Europe’s own backyard. face their own weaknesses.
Macron handles the White House resident more than other European leaders, treating him with all the care because of a foreign power, while taking advantage of the vacuum left at the foreign level to build his own role as a diplomatic savior. It also sounds like a warning about the cards Macron will get in 2022, with a far-right Marine Le Pen on the rise.
Ibtissem Guenfoud reported from Paris, France.
The United States and Germany have had a close relationship since the end of World War II, but Trump’s presidency has put it under great pressure.
“The ocean liners are almost for life,” Sudha David-Wilp of the German Marshall Fund, an American expert group, told The Local in Berlin.
In addition to Trump’s withdrawal from many multilateral agreements, the imposition of price lists on EU products, and Germany’s rebuke for not meeting its NATO spending target, the Germans are going through America’s internal problems. In a recent Pew study, only 26% of Germans had a positive opinion of the United States, comparable to sentiment after the start of the Iraq war in 2003 and an astonishing 78% drop in 2000.
Angela Merkel, who has been Chancellor of Germany since 2005, has said she will no longer run for re-election in 2021. There has been no lost love between Trump and Merkel’s party, the central-right Christian Democrats. Foreign Chief Norbert Rattgen told Politico that cooperation between the United States and the European Union as a whole would be threatened at one point by Trump.
“A country internally divided and full of acrimony at some point will lose its ability to shape foreign affairs, so we would see America’s withdrawal from foreign policy continue, creating a vacuum that others would be more than happy to fill,” he said. Under Biden, the U. S. -Germany relationship would once support a partnership, he said.
“If Trump wins, the transatlantic division will make an audible crackle. If Joe Biden wins, the loudest sound will be the bursting of champagne corks,” wrote Andreas Kluth, German columnist for Bloomberg News.
Grace Dobush back from Berlin, Germany.
Italians in general still look in amazement at the US election, but this year in particular.
The Italian media marveled at Trump’s position on COVID-19 and its various antics, while many in the audience do not perceive what Biden stands for. One trader said last week that he saw no difference between the two rich and white men.
Historically, Italy, of course, has had smart relations with the United States, despite the existing coalition government’s bedmates and some tensions with the Trump administration over Italy’s ties to China and the 5G industry and Trump’s price lists in the European Union.
But little is expected to change, with the Italian government temporarily approaching any new president and administration, a key U. S. best friend with NATO and U. S. bases on its territory. they would have more consideration, and the new president would take a more difficult stance on relations with China and Russia and be closer to Europe, Japan and Australia,” according to Gianni Riotta.
Biden would also be only the Catholic president of the United States, after John F. trump, especially with his help to migrants and his action against climate change.
Phoebe Natanson back from Rome, Italy.
Officials in Seoul are holding their breath to see the effects of the presidential election because Biden’s victory would have consequences and a replacement in U. S. foreign policy on China, North Korea, and U. S. troops in South Korea.
While President Moon Jae In’s administration reiterates the rhetoric of a “strong and strong alliance” with the United States, it has distanced and worked more closely with China, South Korea’s number one commercial wife and a key player in North Korea’s influence.
Analysts expect U. S. tension on China to continue, whether biden or Trump wins, but while Trump has fought china alone and left South Korea alone, Biden’s leadership would likely adopt classical diplomatic technique and demand South Korea by his side. a difficult call for Seoul.
When it comes to North Korea, the temperament is that Trump’s top-down technique in dealing directly with Kim Jong Un has complicated nuclear negotiations. It’s highly likely, analysts say, that Biden’s presidency will force him to return to the pre-Trump era, forcing North Korea to return to its hermit kingdom.
Biden is strong in “promoting human rights and democracy in the world” and Kim’s description as “murderer,” “brutal” and “ruthless” would in fact put the Moon administration’s existing efforts to maintain a “Moon-Kim romance” at odds with WE
Trump’s unilateral request from South Korea for a large increase in host country aid for U. S. forces stationed here and the recent resolve to pull troops out of Germany have only served to fear here whether the United States is a “reliable” partner. Biden’s leadership will most likely reject Trump’s strategy and negotiate in a more friendly direction.
Joohee Cho reported from Seoul, South Korea.
Overall, the Japanese public sees the United States as a smart partner, but it is going through an era of internal turmoil. The government has made titanic efforts to maintain the U. S. -Japan alliance, and former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe largely managed to circumvent US Price Lists. But it’s not the first time Or troop withdrawals.
Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga will continue to try to keep the United States satisfied and maintain this alliance, regardless of who wins the U. S. election: “Suga can do the same with (Trump or Biden), but with a practical preference given to existing management just because with Trump, Japan has done many things in the immediate past,” according to Tomohiko Taniguchi, Abe’s former cabinet special adviser.
This makes Japan unique among America’s allies. His conservative party, which is almost in power, prefers Republicans to Democrats in general, according to Koichi Nakano, dean and professor of political science at Sophia University in Tokyo, because they prioritize big business and concentrate less. human rights, democracy and the rule of law.
“That said, the issues haven’t changed,” Tomohiko said, “whatever the possibility of being in the highest workplace in the United States, is the first, the time and the third most vital task for the Japanese prime minister of the time to build the most productive appointment imaginable with this POTUS. “
Anthony Trotter reported from Tokyo, Japan.
There may not be a more consequential long-term foreign policy challenge for the candidate winning the election than America’s dating with China. Since the pandemic, Chinese hawks in Trump’s management have unfeded a multitude of long-standing complaints against Beijing and I confronted them all at the same time – about domestic espionage and the theft of generations; human rights violations in Xinjiang, Tibet and Hong Kong; reinforcement of the army in the South China Sea; and the sale of weapons from the United States to Taiwan.
The winner will have to compare what this policy has brought to the United States, as well as face an increasingly confident China. Although COVID-19 first gave the impression in China, it appears that Beijing is absolutely under the pandemic within its borders, and China will probably be the only country to see its economy grow by 2020. Because the United States cannot detect its infections and mark them with photographs of social unrest, Chinese state media has interpreted America’s problems as symptoms that the United States is a declining country. In this divide, China has shown dynamism in the Asia-Pacific region, with emerging tensions with almost all of its neighbors.
Despite this, or because of this, a recent Pew survey showed that the only country whose reputation has been worse this year than China is the United States.
Despite the industry war and the Trump administration’s bellicose rhetoric, many Beijing observers really prefer four more years of Trump. The predominant confidence is that the short-term pain of dealing with Trump for four more years would lead to longer-term gains. A popular nickname for Trump on Chinese social media is “jianguo” or “building a nation. “
The country they’re referring to is China, with Trump returning strength to China weakening U. S. network allies around the world, especially in Asia. While China also has fewer and fewer friends in the region, Beijing sees Trump’s management as unreliable and chaotic around the world. creating a major opportunity for them.
While a Biden administration would likely provide a return to past engagement criteria, such as not transmitting dirty laundry quotes in tweets, Biden’s victory would be a major challenge for Beijing if he and his advisers could re-galvanize America’s classic allies on a more unified front to counter China.
The truth is not lost to Beijing that whoever wins the White House wins, the dating between Beijing and Washington has already been indeliblely altered. The point and speed with which he would continue to move will feature the president who will sit at the Resolute Table on January 20. 2021.
Karson Yiu reported from Hong Kong.
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