MANILA / CANBERRA – Deaths from the new coronavirus have reached 1 million worldwide, and the Institute for Health Metrics and Assessment predicts that it will double until January 2021; at worst, deaths can reach more than 3 million to date.
COVID-19 deaths reached more than one million on 28 September, according to Agence France-Presse. However, coronavirus Resource Center data at Johns Hopkins University puts the figures at 998,074 at the time of writing, due to the weekend delay. in the processing of knowledge.
“The worst situation for the northern hemisphere is December and January. We are going to have a very difficult time when mortality will accumulate daily. We want to be mentally prepared, and unfortunately hospitals want to be prepared and have the resources to fight this virus,” Devex Ali Mokdad, a fitness science teacher at IHME, told Devex Ali Mokdad.
“People tell you about this [collective immunity with infection rates of 10% to 20%]. We haven’t noticed it in our data. “
COVID-19’s most recent milestone serves as a grim reminder of its devastating human cost and a renewed awakening for governments and populations of the severity of the disease. While some governments have maintained a small number of cases, others have fought for transmission.
Misinformation and misinformation from government leaders have also contributed to the demanding situations of the fight against the pandemic. Dangerous conspiracy theories have prevented others from following fundamental security protocols, such as dressing in masks and maintaining social distance in public places.
COVID-19: a chronology of the coronavirus epidemic
On 31 December 2019, the Chinese government alerted WHO to cases of pneumonia in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China, whose cause is unknown, which began as a mysterious disease called first 2019-nCoV and then COVID-19. follows the progression of the epidemic as it develops.
“This is a serious and devastating disease for our fitness and our economy around the world, and you hear voices saying it’s a hoax and there’s no COVID-19. It’s frustrating,” Mokdad said.
He expressed dismay at reports that collective immunity can be achieved with an infection of 10% to 20%.
“People tell you. We haven’t noticed that in our data. He referred to some places in Brazil, where it is idea that nearly two-thirds of the population have become inflamed” and that there is still no collective immunity. Anyone who spreads this rumor that we’re going to have collective immunity at a declining rate [spreads a false rumor], and we have to be very careful and make sure we don’t let our guard down until we get a vaccine. “.
China had been the epicenter of the pandemic until mid-March, when reported deaths in Italy began to increase, achieving at one point more than 900 reported deaths in a day without getting married, which has hit doctors and fitness centers, prompting the Italian Anesthesia Society. , Analgesia, Resuscitation and Intensive Care to take into account triage recommendations for patients who need priority access to intensive care.
But soon after, the highest number of cases and deaths in the United States and Brazil made the Americas the new epicenter of the pandemic.
The first cases of COVID-19 were officially shown in the United States on January 20 and the country reported its first official deaths on March 3, despite reports that other people were dying as early as February. In less than a month, more than a thousand people have died. By April 12, the United States had surpassed Italy’s death toll.
Worse, in April, the United States reported an average of 3,000 new deaths consistent with the day. Since then, this number has fallen to less than 800 people, there are fears of death as COVID-19 cases continue and the winter season approaches.
The most recent knowledge shows that the United States continues to account for the highest number of deaths worldwide, with a success of 200,000 deaths reported last week. A weak federal reaction and incredibly diverse reactions at the state level, coupled with a damaging politicization of the pandemic reaction, have contributed to The HME did not expect deaths to succeed in 200,000 through the week of October, Mokdad said.
“It gives you a concept of what’s going on,” he says.
Brazil recorded its first death on March 18, however, in less than 3 months it has one of the countries with the highest number of deaths in the world. In August, Brazil recorded an average of 44,000 new cases in line with the day and more than 1,300 new cases. deaths, now up to an average of 700 deaths consistent with the day. As of 27 September, COVID-19 deaths in the country accounted for 14% of the world’s total.
COVID-19 deaths have been reported in a total of 30 countries in the region, with more than 10,000 lives lost in Mexico, Peru, Colombia, Argentina, Chile and Ecuador.
These figures are due to a combination of several factors, overloaded fitness systems, and demographic and socioeconomic realities in several Latin American countries, said Marcos Espinal, director of the Department of Communicable Diseases and Health Analysis of the Pan American Health Organization. .
In some Latin American cities, communities deficient in densely urbanized spaces “where it is very difficult to practice social estating,” he said.
Pandemic is fatal for the elderly and other physical fitness problems, such as diabetes, cancer and cardiovascular disease.
In Indonesia, civil society must fill in the lack of data on COVID-19
Health experts, leaders and government officials are the highest reliable source of COVID-19 data, according to research in Jakarta. But 77% of respondents think that the chances of coVID-19 inflation are low or very slim.
“It’s a mixture of factors. And it shows us once again how unpredictable this virus is, because we continue to see deaths. The curves are gradually flattened, but that doesn’t mean we want the measurements because we’re also seeing new peaks in Europe,” Espinal said.
“At the end of the day and until the vaccine is available, [as well as] more medicines and treatments, we will need to continue to put those non-pharmaceutical measures into force and place a balance in the reopening to minimize the number of deaths,” he said.
The African region, Egypt, recorded more than 25,000 deaths, the lowest rate compared to other geographic regions. The highest number of cases and deaths has been largely limited to South Africa, where more than 660,000 cases and more than 16,000 deaths have been reported. has been shown to date.
The low degrees of transmission and death on the continent have become a source of rejoicing and tension. Previous projections painted a bleak picture of the effect of COVID-19 in Africa. In May, the World Health Organization estimated that between 29 million and 44 million more people may be inflamed with COVID-19 there, and between 83,000 and 190,000 more people may die of the disease by 2020 “if containment measures fail. “At the time, nearly 1,000 African fitness staff had been inflamed with COVID-19.
But the continent now shows that these past forecasts are false, and some argue that these past models were the product of prejudices opposed to Africa.
In an online press conference on September 24, Dr. Sam Agatre Okuonzi, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Arua Regional Referral Hospital in Uganda, explained that Africa was seen as a “natural hotbed of disease” and “a position in which this type of disease [COVID-19] would be the one that would come out the most ».
“In Uganda, there is panic. It was expected in early September that there would be 600,000 cases of COVID and 30,000 deaths. But the truth is completely different,” he said.
There were 7,364 cases of COVID-19 and 71 deaths in Uganda as of 27 September, according to WHO. Okuonzi said comments had been made in other African countries, breaking prejudices about the disease, but also about Africa.
Some question the accuracy of reported cases and deaths in the region, Mokdad of the IHME has argued that there are insufficient reports and underestimation in many countries, adding in high-income economies such as the United States
“There may have been an under-registration [of cases in Africa], I agree Array . . . but you can’t suppress the deaths. The deaths that occur in society are so noisy and visual that it can only be concluded that they will have to be precise, and there are very few,” Okuonzi said.
Dr Matshidiso Moeti, WHO Regional Director for Africa, told a press conference that initial arrangements and movement restrictions have created a window of opportunity for many countries on the continent to react while keeping the number of instances low. .
“Are we missing a lot of people who are inflamed and undetected? Early effects recommend a higher number of infections than those reported in countries such as Kenya, Malawi and Zambia. But to extrapolate those effects nationally, we believe more studies are needed, going beyond urban spaces, adding rural spaces where transmission seems to be smaller,” he said.
He edited that more than 80% of cases on the continent are asymptomatic and that fitness services are overwhelmed. And while there are disorders with the record of deaths in peak African countries, he said past epidemics have shown how communities, when they see a trend of deaths among people, will begin to report them.
Demographic profiles of African countries may also have played a role, most of which had a younger population. Other older people also commonly stay at home living in specialized residential spaces discovered in many Western countries, where transmission and major deaths have been recorded.
But she and the experts have expressed caution at the continent’s early successes.
“We are very pleased that in places like South Africa they are controlling the disease and that we have not noticed that this terrible effect affects others living with HIV. Once again, governments and humanitarian agencies deserve great recognition. A great deal of effort has been made to protect vulnerable refugees and displaced populations,” said Dr Michael Ryan, WHO Director of Health Emergencies.
“But Africa has not been unscathed. There are still many, many deaths, and South Africa has had a very serious effect on the disease,” he said at a WHO press conference on 25 September. Countries on the continent also want to increase their detection capabilities, he added.
“I think Africa is probably training us a couple of things. But, again, don’t get me wrong. Africa is not out of danger. Surveillance is surely necessary,” he said.
There has been a plateau of cases and deaths in line with the week reported to WHO, however, this “is not a promising situation” according to the UN aid agency, noting that 1. 8 million to 1. 9 million cases and 40,000 deaths in line with the week “too high”.
In addition, seroepidemiological studies show that only a small proportion of other people have developed antibodies opposed to COVID-19, that “the virus still has a lot of room for manoeuvre and will continue to spread if we do not suppress it,” WHO said. wrote in an email response.
WHO said it is involved in the northern hemisphere. As the blood-free season approaches, there will be less room for outdoor activities. Cold months also lead to other respiratory diseases, complicating diagnoses and increasing the burden of the disease.
When cases increase, Mokdad of the IHME pointed out, other people begin to behave, dress in a mask and stay at home, but the opposite is also true. Once cases begin to decline or are no longer covered in the media, other people start to let their guard down.
The IHME also adjusts its projections based on government actions, recognizing that resolution is never simple as governments seek to balance life coverage with livelihood coverage.
“It’s hard work, and it’s been very complicated because we are reminded that these are not numbers or measures, they are human beings and we enjoy each other. On a non-public note, every time I put a number, I look at each and every one and wait and pray that anyone with the lowest projection is right and that we are wrong,” he said.
WHO’s Ryan said at Friday’s press conference, “1 million is a terrible figure. And I think we want to think about that before we start right now. Millions, there are many desires to make to save lives, either in terms of disease control. “, existing rescue measures and long-term innovations. The genuine question is: are we together in a willingness to do the right thing to avoid this number?»