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Guest Essay
By Alexander Gabuev
Mr. Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, wrote from Berlin.
Vladimir Putin’s visit to Beijing this week, where he will meet Xi Jinping and senior Chinese officials, is another transparent demonstration of the closeness between Russia and China.
However, many in the West still believe that their alliance is an aberration, motivated by S. Once Putin and his dark obsessions are gone, Moscow will seek to rebuild its ties with the West, not least because ties between Russia and China are superficial, while the country has centuries of economic and cultural dependence on Europe.
This illusion, as exciting as it is, neglects the transformation of the Russian economy and society. Never since the fall of the Soviet Union has Russia been so far removed from Europe, and never in all its history has it been so strongly connected to China. The fact is that after two years of war in Ukraine and painful Western sanctions, only Mr. Putin wants China: Russia too.
China has Russia’s greatest vital partner and offers a lifeline not only to Putin but also to the entire struggling economy. In 2023, Russia’s industry with China reached a record $240. 1 billion, more than 60% from pre-war levels, with China accounting for 30% of Russian exports and just about 40% of its imports.
Before the war, Russia’s industry with the European Union was twice that of China; now it is less than half. The Chinese yuan, not the dollar or the euro, is now the main currency used in industry between the two countries, making it the most widely used industrial currency on the Moscow Stock Exchange and the benchmark savings instrument.
This economic dependence infiltrates everyday life. Chinese products are ubiquitous, and more than a portion of the one million cars sold in Russia last year were made in China. Tellingly, the top six foreign car brands in Russia are now all Chinese, thanks to the exodus of once-dominant Western companies. It’s a similar story in the smartphone market, where Xiaomi, China’s Tecno have eclipsed Apple and Samsung, as well as in the home appliance market and many other items.
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