After 10 months of intense fighting and staggering spending on ammunition, the war in Ukraine is heading for a dark and bloodless year. For Ukraine and its president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, it is a fight for survival; for Russia and Vladimir Putin, this is a military debacle.
“He understands it’s been a disaster,” military specialist Fred Kagan said. “I don’t think he accepted that he was defeated, because the essence of being Putin is never accepting that he has been defeated. “
The Kagan Institute for the Study of War produces maps showing how much Russia has been forced to abandon since its invasion stalled.
Putin will compensate by launching drones and missile moves against Ukrainian cities.
Kagan said, “Putin is looking for tactics to break Ukraine’s will to keep fighting, and more importantly, I think, he’s focusing on pursuing Western conquests for Ukraine. “
Martin asked, “Which one has more to break?”
“The will of Western democracies. He has very little chance of breaking the will of the Ukrainians in a short time. “
On Dec. 21, Biden’s administration held a Christmas display in aid of Zelenskyy, a lightning stopover in the nation’s capital. Embodying his country’s fighting spirit, Zelenskyy thanked the United States for the $22 billion in weapons it has already committed and made clear he would ask for more. “We have artillery, yes. Thank you,” he told the U. S. Congress. “Is that enough? Honestly, not really.
Ukraine is heading towards the center of winter with an uninterrupted barrage of Russian missile and drone strikes.
President Biden: “By destroying the formula to provide warmth and light to other Ukrainians the coldest and darkest part of the year, Russia is using winter as a weapon. “
Kagan believes Ukraine can turn the winter weapon into opposition to the Russians. “Right now, Ukrainians have a window of opportunity,” he said. The army is still disorganized and in shock, and Ukrainians have a chance to take back a lot of territory. “
“How long will this war last?” Martin asked.
“It can happen for years; it’s unlikely, but possible,” Kagan responded.
How much longer is it likely to be decided through how much more territory Zelenskyy regains and Putin loses?
“The art here is to help Putin realize he’s lost this trick and it’s time to put his hand down,” Kagan said. “We have to convince him that this approach, this approach of the army, is over, and it can only continue. lose here. It’s not there yet, and we’ll have to help the Ukrainians to get it there as soon as possible. “
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Story produced through Mary Walsh. Editor: Karen Brenner.