A summer wave of COVID-19 infections is looming more than last year in a developing part of the country, federal data suggests, as a new variant called LB. 1 could be on track to adapt to the last dominant strain of the virus.
For the first time in months, the CDC estimates that no state or territory has noticed a slowdown in COVID-19 infections in the past week. Key signs of the virus appear to be worsening more rapidly in several Western states, where trends have begun to decline. It goes up this month.
Levels of virus detections in wastewater in the western region, an early sign of a surge in COVID-19 cases, are already near the threshold that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention considers “high” degrees of threat of infection. Cases in nursing homes have also accelerated in recent weeks in this region.
On average, 1. 23% of emergency room visits were from COVID-19 patients in HHS Region 9, a group of states that stretches from Arizona to Hawaii. This is now the worst average of COVID-19-related emergency room visits in the region since early February.
Since the beginning of the pandemic, the government has been tracking COVID-19 outbreaks after a pause in cases in the spring, but at other times during the warmer months.
Last year’s backlog only began to recover nationally in late July. Infections of the virus in emergency rooms peaked in late August and early September, just as officials were preparing to roll out a new COVID-19 vaccine.
“For influenza and RSV, we have years and years of knowledge with very similar trends over time. Therefore, you cannot set the clock according to the start of those seasons, but you can get closer. For COVID, it’s not true at all,” Ruth Link-Gelles, head of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy studies at the CDC, said this month at a Food and Drug Administration meeting.
COVID-19 cases are surging as the CDC says it’s tracking two new variants that are spreading proportionally across the country. Scientists call them KP. 3 and LB. 1.
KP. 3 has reached about one-third of cases nationwide, up from 25% two weeks ago, and LB. 1 accounts for 17. 5% of cases, according to the CDC’s “Nowcast” projections released Friday.
Both update a close relative, a variant called “FLiRT” called KP. 2, which was dominant last month. So far, CDC projections expect LB. 1 to begin developing at a faster rate than KP. 3, suggesting that LB. 1 could outperform KP. 3.
These three variants represent a common ancestor in the JN. 1 strain that caused a wave of cases last winter.
“We have noticed descendants of this evolution, namely KP. 2, KP. 3 and LB. 1. So, those other new variants gave the impression of being quickly. I wouldn’t say they took us by surprise, but because they happened quickly. we had to react,” the FDA’s Dr. Peter Marks said Friday.
Marks spoke at a webinar hosted by the organization Champions for Vaccine Education, Equity and Progress, defending the agency’s decision this month to choose KP. 2 as the strain for the updated Moderna and Pfizer vaccines this fall.
This had reversed an earlier decision to propose injections for JN. 1, even though a panel of outside FDA advisors had liked it. When the panel opted between the two variants, there was much more knowledge about JN’s choice. 1 as a goal for autumn.
The switch to KP. 2 is not based on “irrefutable evidence,” Marks admitted, but officials hope it will offer at least a marginal improvement over shots aimed at the old variant.
“There will probably be some degree of cross-coverage, but optimal coverage probably involves ensuring that we get as close as possible to what’s going on lately,” he said.
Since the FDA meeting, the CDC has begun tracking the likelihood of KP. 3 and LB. 1 outperforming KP. 2.
It’s unclear if the CDC has observed any adjustment in the severity of KP. 3 or LB. 1, as they have tracked some new variants in the past. A spokesperson for the company did not respond to a request for comment.
The first lab data from Japanese scientists, published this month as a preprint that has yet to be peer-reviewed, revealed one of the mutations in LB. 1, an update called S:S31del, that does produce KP. 3 and JN. 1. Have – can allow it to spread more quickly.