Jared Kushner’s clever fortune in facilitating the standardization agreement between the United Arab Emirates and Israel is undeniable smart news in a region that produces a bad stable, in fact, over time, this would possibly lead to warmer ties between Israel and the United Arab Emirates.than those that exist lately between Israel, Jordan and Egypt.
But there is no doubt that Kushner’s trip to the United Arab Emirates on Monday, with an Israeli delegation, is both about the politics and narrow interests of the 3 major players and peace.Whether it becomes more than that will depend on how many Arab states adhere to UAE leadership and how Israel deals with an unresolved Palestinian problem.
After meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday, Kushner and the U.S. delegation, which included the NSA Robert O’Brien, landed Monday in Abu Dhabi on a flight from El Al with the Israeli delegation, the first ever open Israeli advertising flight.The direction of the plane also took him to Saudi Arabia, first for an Israeli commercial aircraft.
The so-called Abraham Accords (an obvious reference to the non-unusual Abrahamic traditions of Judaism, Christianity and Islam) were announced on 13 August and, if implemented, will be the first normalization of relations with Israel since the peace treaties with Jordan in 1994.. Egypt in 1979.
Unlike Egypt and Jordan, which have fought four wars in total with Israel, the agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates will not have the same strategic or regional effect as peace treaties aimed at ending the confrontation between adversaries, but paradoxically, because neither Israel nor the United Arab Emirates has always been staunch enemies, relations can become much warmer faster.The two have been making discrete exchanges on intelligence and security for years.And so are business. The Israeli Ministry of Economy estimates that exports to the United Arab Emirates can increase from $300,000 to $300 million to $500 million according to the year and that the UAE’s annual investment in Israel would succeed at $350 million.
The policy of the 3 key players played a leading role in the timing of the agreement.
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For the Trump administration, in particular, Jared Kushner, architect of the Arab strategy, cultivating closer ties with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates presented the promise of billions in arms sales and industrial agreements for U.S. companies; In terms of peace-building, Kushner’s priority, as he explained to me in 2017, has focused on establishing strategic ties with the Gulf states, not the Palestinians, a more politically popular technique among pro-Israeli evangelical Christians and Conservative Republicans.a president hit by a pandemic, a standardization agreement between Israel and a Gulf would demonstrate competition and good news.The fact that Kushner physically accompanies the Israeli delegation is intended to demonstrate the centrality of the United States in the agreement and obtain the political benefits for his troubled father-in-law, as well as the overwhelming confrontation of Secretary of State Pompeo of Jerusalem with the RNC.
For Netanyahu, the deal may not have come at a better time.Under pressure from coVID-19’s resurgence, an economic recession, and a trial, all this hype is not only a distraction, but a way to promote its view that Israel can make peace with the Arabs without the Palestinians.Having promised to annex the West Bank but without the green kindness of the Trump administration, he now had a way out: normalizing the industry with the United Arab Emirates in exchange for his insistence that he abandon or at least suspend the annexation.
Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayid, the de facto ruler of the United Arab Emirates, also behaved well in this agreement.By formalizing what had been a well-known set of “secret” relations with Israel, you can simply claim that the United Arab Emirates protected the Palestinians from Israeli annexation, demonstrate the ambitious independence of the United Arab Emirates as a regional actor, grease the slips of their long-standing claim.of the United States, to buy the F-35 fighter jets and gain trouble in Washington by acting intelligently with Israel, whether Trump or Biden wins.
Whether the agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates stands and will have a lasting effect on the region will depend on several factors: will Netanyahu moderate his policy towards the Palestinians, permanently suspend annexation, and prevent high-profile movements on the floor?Can that just embarrass the UAE? Otherwise, bin Zayid will calibrate the normalization speed accordingly.
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Will the other Arab states follow him? After the United Arab Emirates, Kushner is expected to travel to Oman, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.The first two, having already established casual ties with Israel, are probably candidates, but it would possibly take some time.Saudi Arabia, the maximum value for Israel, is also unlikely to arrive quickly.King Salman: Unlike his son, Crown Prince Muhammed bin Salman (MBS) is more classic and pro-Palestinian, approaching Israel can also help him.-deserved a symbol of cruelty and incompetence for his role in the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
Arab states can expect the final results of November’s presidential election before making new public commitments to normalize with Israel.Kushner is more than likely to be able to align Arabs’ commitments to attend a rite of signature between the United Arab Emirates and Israel that management would like to celebrate in September.Will all this hype make a difference in an election that’s only 60 days away?Probably not. But my grandmother, speaking of her bird soup, couldn’t hurt.
Aaron David Miller is a principal investigator at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, specializing in American foreign policy.He has written five books, and added his recent high, “The End of Greatness: Why America Can’t (and Doesn’t Want)” Another Great President “and” The Overly Promised Land: America’s Elusive Search for Arab-Israeli Peace.”He earned his doctorate in diplomatic history in the Middle East and the United States from the University of Michigan in 1977.