Experts say Moscow has a large number of Cold War-era models in inventory and may continue the war in Ukraine for some time.
Russia’s military has lost nearly 40 percent of its pre-war tank fleet after nine months of fighting in Ukraine, according to a tally by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) think tank.
This rises to 50% for some of the key tanks used in combat, forcing Russia to use its still-gigantic Cold War-era arsenals. It is estimated that the number of Ukrainian tanks is higher due to the number it captured and the source of its Western allies’ era tanks.
John Chipman, chairman of the think tank, said the war had been “a political and military failure for Russia,” pointing to shortcomings in its leadership and deficiencies in its munitions, despite the Kremlin’s modernization efforts.
“Russia’s moves over the past year have raised questions only about the competence of its army and senior military leaders, but also about command cohesion,” he said, launching the IISS’s annual audit on the military balance of global armed forces.
The think tank’s figures are largely based on open-source photographs of drones, satellites and the battlefield, ranging from the start of the war to the end of November, though the shock means the numbers can only be estimated.
His tally is that the number of Russian tanks in his army has shrunk by 38 percent, from 2927 to 1800, while his T-72B3 workhorse, an upgrade first delivered to his army in 2013, has suffered heavy losses.
Heavy battlefield casualties meant Russia had lost “about 50 of its pre-invasion fleet” of the tank and a similar variant, Chipman said, and slow commercial production “forced Moscow to rely on its old stored weapons as attrition replacements. “
Russia’s exaggerated optimism meant that it had suffered heavy tank losses early in the war, especially in the failed attack on Kiev, where a large number of tanks and armored cars moving in convoys were destroyed on roads north of the capital. Many others were destroyed, captured or towed by tractors when the attack failed.
Russian troops had planned to be welcomed in Ukraine and, in some cases, wore parade clothes with the confidence that after a blitzkrieg, tanks would be used to level a parade through the streets of Kiev. Instead, they were shot down by Ukrainian artillery and infantry anti-tank guns.
There have been few signs of improvement in tank tactics, with several dozen tanks allegedly lost in fighting since last January in a hitherto unsuccessful attempt to capture the Donbass, the town of Vuhledar. .
But, while the casualties on the battlefield are notable, Russia helps keep a large number of old tanks stored for the long term, recently estimated at 5,000, meaning Moscow can continue with a strategy of attrition for some time.
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However, Ukraine saw its tank count from 858 to 953, as it partly offset its own losses by capturing around 500 from Russia, of which it “put a smart morsel into service,” according to the IISS analyst Henry. Boyd. Il has also won significant donations from Poland, the Czech Republic and other Soviet-era armored states. however, lately its tank force is still part of Russia’s.
Kiev hopes to get a wave of Western tanks and fighter cars in the next two months, which it plans to use to achieve a breakthrough on the battlefield. However, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned Wednesday that lately it has only one “half battalion. “” of Leopard 2 tanks to be shipped to Ukraine, 14 new Leopard A6 tanks and 3 from Portugal.
Poland also pledged to send a battalion of Leopard 2 tanks to Kiev and lately is educating Ukrainian troops to use them, but Pistorius said “many” had combat compatibility.
Ben Barry, a floor war analyst, said he estimated Ukraine would get about a quarter of the 1,000 tanks and fighter cars it had sought.
That can give it a “tactical advantage,” Barry said, if accompanied by enough ammunition and spare parts. Still, the analyst and former tank commander said it is not transparent “that Kiev has enough fighting strength to temporarily expel Russian forces. “”
Barry concluded that, as a result, “we expect a bloody year” in which fighting would be unpredictable, after a time when an estimated 200,000 other people were killed or injured on both sides.
Additional information via Isobel Koshiw in Kiev