From 2014 to early 2019, the crusade led by the United States and its anti-ISIS allies in Syria and Iraq, Europe faced common terrorist attacks. However, as ISIS lost its territories in Syria and Iraq and the COVID-19 pandemic emerged, the risk of devout extremism in Europe and the United States has decreased, while that of right-wing extremism teams has increased.
The ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict, particularly the deaths of thousands of Palestinians, marks a turning point. In October, France witnessed terrorist attacks and assaults targeting Jewish individuals, with 14 airports receiving bomb threats. Last weekend, an attacker in Paris, near the Eiffel Tower, stabbed passersby, killing a German tourist and injuring two others. Before the attack, the assailant released a video pledging allegiance to ISIS.
French President Emmanuel Macron warned after the first attack following the Israeli-Palestinian standoff that religious terrorism is resurfacing in Europe, saying “all European countries are vulnerable. “
On the eve of the holidays, EU officials have warned of an increased risk of terrorist attacks at Christmas. France has already raised its alert on the terrorist risk to the level. The German Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution has also warned of the heightened dangers of radicalized Americans launching attacks in Germany because of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Monitoring by various counter-terrorism agencies has revealed that since the start of the current Israel-Palestine conflict, both Al-Qaeda and ISIS have issued propaganda messages, urging supporters to intensify attacks on Jews and Western countries.
Increased surveillance in Europe
The European Commission’s website reported on December 5 that Ylva Johansson, Commissioner for Home Affairs, had warned of “significant security dangers” during Christmas in EU countries due to the Palestinian-Israeli confrontation and the polarization it has caused in public opinion. Johansson did not disclose explicit intelligence, but said the recent attack in Paris illustrates the dangers already observed. The European Commission has announced an additional allocation of €30 million to help the security of member states, adding around religious sites.
Prior to Johansson’s speech, the German government had expressed concern. Following the death of a German tourist in the Paris attack, German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser pressed on the seriousness and urgency of the risk of devout extremism opposed to the EU.
Faeser warned that as the standoff between Israelis and Palestinians continues, the threat of potential emotional and radicalized attackers increases. Recently, German police discovered and removed 170 channels and content of a devout extremist nature on the social media platform Telegram.
Last week, German police arrested two suspects under the age of 18 on charges of planning a bomb attack at a Christmas market in Leverkusen, northwest Germany. One of the suspects, who was only 15 years old, expressed sympathy for ISIS. Last Saturday, a Christmas market near Stuttgart in southern Germany temporarily closed due to the risk of attack.
Thomas Haldenwang, head of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, revealed last month that jihadist organizations have recently intensified calls for attacks. ISIS and other terrorist groups are trying to attract new supporters by exploiting the Israel-Palestine conflict, expanding the range of potential attackers.
Haldenwang warned that the risk of terror attacks against Jews, Israeli citizens and public establishments in Germany has increased dramatically, and that a great effort is being made to uncover and save similar plans.
France has raised its terrorist risk point to the “emergency attack point”. A week into the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict, an attacker in Arras, northern France, who pledged allegiance to ISIS, stabbed a top school instructor to death.
Three days after the attack in France, an assailant in Brussels, Belgium, shot dead two Swedish fanatics, with ISIS claiming responsibility for the attack. Brussels, home to the EU’s main administrative bodies and home to NATO, has also raised its terrorist risk point to an all-time high.
British police statistics show that from Oct. 7, when the current standoff between Israelis and Palestinians began, to Oct. 15, calls to the country’s counter-terrorism hotline doubled to the same level as last year. In November, the British government convened an emergency ministerial assembly for terrorist risk. The UK’s caution about the terrorist risk remains “substantial” and has not yet been raised to the highest point of “severe”.
Terrorist Organizations Exploit the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict
Although the EU designates Hamas as a terrorist organization, studies by the International Counterterrorism Center show that Hamas has been involved in past attacks against France and other countries. As the war between Hamas and Israel continues, other terrorist organizations will try to exploit Muslims. the world’s sympathy for Palestine and discontent with Israel and the West to attract more followers.
Monitoring by the International Counter-Terrorism Center reveals that a week after the start of the current Israel-Palestine conflict, ISIS published an article titled “Practical Steps to Fight the Jews” on its media, calling for global supporters to intensify attacks on Israel, Jews, and Israeli allies.
ISIS itself does not support Hamas. In ISIS’s view, Hamas and most of the Palestinian armed groups are apostates. During the current Israel-Palestine conflict, ISIS has not expressed any support for Hamas. ISIS’s strategy is to use the conflict to attract more radicalized supporters to expand its influence.
The Counterterrorism Center at the West Point Military Academy warns that in recent years, ISIS’s design for making plans and executing operations has been fine-tuned, but ISIS has not been able to launch attacks effectively in the West. The current standoff between Israelis and Palestinians offers an opportunity for ISISArray operations
A report by U. N. experts released in August showed that IS still has between 5,000 and 7,000 members in Syria and Iraq, most of them fighters. In Afghanistan, the organization has between 4,000 and 6,000 fighters and their family members, making it the main organization in the country. most serious terrorist threat.
Africa remains a stronghold for ISIS. The report notes that ISIS’s branch in Africa’s Sahel region appears to be expanding its autonomy and is playing a key role in escalating violence in the region.
Monitoring through the West Point Military Academy’s Counterterrorism Center also shows that, unlike ISIS, Al-Qaeda has led Hamas’ fight against Israel since the beginning of the existing conflict. Al-Qaeda branches in Yemen and Pakistan have called on their followers to unleash attacks in Western countries, targeting American, British and French citizens, on behalf of Hamas.
The Counterterrorism Center in particular warns that in the context of escalating confrontation between Israelis and Palestinians, the greatest security risk is not the planned attack through an outright terrorist organization, but that Americans radicalized through confrontation who in the past have not sworn allegiance to any organization.
These would-be attackers have no extremist background and are not involved in any extremist organizations, making it difficult for intelligence agencies to track and detect their movements in advance.
The Counterterrorism Center at the West Point Military Academy believes that three points primarily influence the point of terror risk faced by Western countries: the duration of the existing Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the intensity of Israeli movements in Gaza, and the West’s point for Israel. .
The longer the Israel-Palestine conflict lasts, the greater the terror threat to the West. If the brutality of the conflict escalates, especially if street fighting breaks out in Gaza, the terror threat to various countries will be even greater.
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