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Lula presented the Supreme Court’s verdict as evidence of his innocence: he argues that corruption charges were fabricated through right-wing forces to prevent him from entering. But recent polls have revealed that public opinion is divided.
Read more: Brazil’s top president returns from political exile on promise to save nation
Either way, polls recommend that Lula will comfortably beat Bolsonaro, though it’s unclear whether he’ll have enough votes for a runoff on Oct. 30. a hand-in-hand festival between the two favorites, almost in fact this year Bolsonaro and Lula.
“Bolsonaro has eroded accountability establishments, he is rotting the state from within,” Ribeiro said. Bolsonaro, however, made a rare admission Monday in a podcast that he would resign if defeated. “If this is God’s will, I will continue, but if this is the case, I will pass the presidential shawl and withdraw. “
This rhetoric has not alleviated considerations that the transition of force on the occasion of Bolsonaro’s defeat may not go smoothly, experts say it is unlikely to have the strength to overturn the election. “I don’t think I have the institutional help to do that,” Ribeiro says. But even an attempt to recommend that you’ve been wronged can also help you retain a lot of influence in Brazil. “Everyone thinks bolsonaro can also try a January 6 in Brazil if he loses. We’re not like that I’m sure. . . whether it will be a blow. I don’t think so, but it can also just be a way to leave the force while keeping your other people with them,” said Thomas Traumann, a Brazilian journalist and political analyst.
Some of those fears were fueled by Bolsonaro’s call last September to tens of thousands of his supporters to protest in court after his dispute with the courts over adjustments to the voting formula that referred to the president’s attempts to push for paper ballot receipts. Brazilian and foreign media compared to the Incident of the January 6 uprising on Capitol Hill. While some would arguably say Bolsonaro got rid of a page of U. S. President Donald Trump’s playbook, it’s possibly the other way around, according to Ribeiro. formula long before Trump became president. . . He has threatened not to recognize the effects if he doesn’t believe they are just and equitable. “
Civil rights advocates worry that a momentary mandate for Bolsonaro could lead to a democratic retreat, or worse.
There are fears that the speed of deforestation in the Amazon could succeed at a tipping point in which it becomes a dry savannah under a momentary term for Bolsonaro. This, in turn, would drive global climate change; the Amazon has long functioned as a sink to drain carbon dioxide from the environment and absorbs around 2 billion tons of CO2 per year (or 5% of emissions). Data from Brazil’s National Sspeed Research Institute showed that more than 3980 square kilometers were deforested in the first six months of this year, the amount since 2016.
Under Bolsonaro, legislation on deforestation has been softened and environmental agencies have suffered staff and budget cuts. “There has been very little oversight, fines or attempted deforestation,” says Amy Erica Smith, an associate professor of political science and expert on Brazilian politics at Iowa State University. In addition, says Ribeiro: “Bolsonaro encourages the use of indigenous lands, areas of environmental coverage for mining, for livestock. “
Bolsonaro has also been criticized for his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and for spreading false data about the virus and vaccines. Brazil has recorded more than 685,000 deaths from COVID, which is one of the death rates in the world.
Although Bolsonaro has raised concerns about Brazilian democracy, it is to worry the average Brazilian voter, according to experts. More than a third of Brazilian families face food insecurity, according to a study published in May by the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV), a Brazilian educational institution.
“People are fighting,” says Ribeiro. Es that’s why Bolsonaro broke the bank to increase social spending. “
Bolsonaro cut fuel taxes to cut costs after they partially increased due to Russia’s war in Ukraine. It has higher aid bills for poorer countries through a program called Auxilio Brasil, or Ayuda Brasil; in August, it began paying $120 a month in money to 20 million families. Inflation has not been as much of a challenge in Brazil as it has been in the United States and Europe, due to falling energy costs. But wages continue to fall and unemployment remains high, even though it is falling.
Bolsonaro is also popular with evangelical Christians, who make up nearly a third of the country’s population, according to pollster Datafolha. (In 2018, about 70% of the electorate supported Bolsonaro. ) There are enough evangelicals who can count,” Smith says.
“Bolsonaro is the first candidate to embrace them,” Traumann says. He gave them key ministerial positions and appointed a Supreme Court justice who was evangelical. Lula, on the other hand, has been rejected by many evangelicals following comments he made earlier this year. that abortion deserves to be seen as a public health problem, rather than a devout one. Bolsonaro has consistently pushed his commitment to make sure most abortions remain illegal in Brazil.
This is not to say that all evangelicals vote en bloc. Some women in the electorate in particular would likely be discouraged by what experts say is Bolsonaro’s misogyny. he not only on culture war issues like abortion and LGBTQ rights, but also on their functionality in the economy and the pandemic,” she says.
But if the polls are correct and Lula wins on October 2 or 30, Brazilians, and much of the world, will be watching to see what happens next.