Martin S. Indyk, the Council’s eminent Lowy on U. S. -China diplomacySpeaking with James M. Lindsay to discuss the consequences of Benjamin Netanyahu’s return as Israel’s prime minister.
I am joined by Martin Indyk to talk about the consequences of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s return to the Prime Minister’s Office. Martin is the Lowy Distinguished Fellow for U. S. -China International RelationsThe U. S. and Middle East here at the Council on Foreign Relations. He has held government positions, adding two terms as U. S. ambassador. He has spent time in the U. S. in Israel and time as President Obama’s special envoy for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations. “fascinating, brilliant, revealing and compelling. ” Martin, with this introduction, thank you for joining me.
Its aim is necessarily to promote an agreement and an annexation agenda. This is combined with the Likud under Netanyahu’s leadership. Lately he is being prosecuted for fraud and corruption, and there is a preference of his component to see the reform of the judicial process. But others within its constituency, namely the new justice minister, Yariv Levin, need to suppress the independence and ability of the Supreme Court to overturn Knesset legislation. It is these elements of regulation, annexation and violation of the independence of the judiciary that seem to outline the objectives of this government, which is very different from previous governments.
So, it’s a mirror image of a kind of divided political formula that’s not new to us here in the United States.
And that, I think, is very problematic in two respects. One because of the formula of checks and balances and the independence of the judiciary internally, but also because the Israeli judicial formula has a great reputation in the world and, specifically, in the West. years now, the Palestinians have tried to use the International Criminal Court, the International Court of Justice, to verify and follow their agenda. And the fact that there has been an independent judiciary in Israel that has served in many cases to protect the rights of Palestinians in the territories, especially Palestinian land ownership, if this is removed now as a component of this process, then Israel will be subject to far greater action than even sanctions and intervention by the ICC and ICJ because they don’t see that Israel has its own rights, especially Palestinian land ownership, if this is now removed as a component of this process, then Israel will be subject to far greater action than even sanctions and intervention by the ICC and ICJ because they don’t see that Israel has its own rights. Own judicial formula to protect the rights of Palestinians.
Therefore, it is not just that there is no ongoing negotiation procedure that can lead to a two-state solution. You have a procedure to actively undermine the prospect of one day having a two-state solution. There is already what other people call a one-way solution. Establish the truth and the new government, especially with Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, is pushing to further promote this truth with new settlements, with the legalization of illegal settlements and, if they can get away with it, also with annexing territory.
Therefore, Palestinians are already seriously limited in terms of the land they can use, the permits they can download from the Israeli government to build in Area C. That would eliminate that. It would therefore eliminate any prospect of an independent Palestinian state in the territory contiguous to the West Bank with its capital in East Jerusalem, which is not only the aspiration of the Palestinians, but is supported through the foreign community, adding the United Nations states. .
And that set up, that all those things mounted a dynamic of confrontation that intensified in fits and starts. But the trend is very clear, so that this year alone, more than 150 Palestinians have been killed, some of them committed to terrorism, many of them engaged in terrorist activities opposed to the Israelis, many. . .
And it will be, no matter what MBS whispers to Israeli-Saudi interlocutors who don’t care about the Palestinians, yet if he blows up in Jerusalem, he could possibly not act. I mean, the Saudi custodian, the king is the custodian of the two holy mosques in Mecca and Medina, and this is the third holiest mosque we’re talking about. Now the Jordanian king is the father there, and he is well aware of the rivalry with the Saudis and needs to prove that he can protect. So he’s in front. I mean, you argued that the Emiratis and the Saudis condemn. It was the King of Jordan who was most powerful in damnation.
Let us hope that he will see that the reaction provoked by a scale in is only the harbinger of an excessive reaction that will be accentuated if it breaks out. And I hope you have the incentive to keep it a secret. But as I said, from the beginning it is vital to perceive that Ben-Gvir and Smotrich are ideologues with a transparent agenda. They intend to insist, and they intend to use their positions of strength to advance this agenda, and it has a genuine perspective. given everything else, that is, all the accumulation I have described, to blow things up. Netanyahu is wary of violence and the use of force. He is proud of the claim, not entirely accurate, that terrorism was far away under his command. rule. So I think he’s going to try to keep it a secret, but I feel like it’s not going to work.
And I think Biden just wants to explain our red lines. No annexation, no legalization of illegal settlements, illegal under Israeli law, no replacement of the prestige quo on the Temple Mount al-Haram al-Sharif, and no new settlements. Four red lines that in combination are a manifestation of American national interest here.
If Netanyahu respects those red lines, then there are many things Biden and Netanyahu can do in combination with Iran, curb its nuclear program, deter it, help the protesters there; on the Abraham Accords and normalisation, in particular with Saudi Arabia; and by placing the tactics in the lives of Palestinians, whatever Netanyahu has expressed his preference for doing in the past. So, there is a way to work in combination, but it is a safe bet that if Netanyahu, given the nature of his government, allows Ben-Gvir and Smotrich to pursue his agfinisha, we will end up not only with a confrontation in the West Bank, but with a confrontation between the US. and Israel.
Today’s episode produced through Ester Fang, with senior podcast producer Gabrielle Sierra. Special thanks to Michelle Kurilla for her help. I’m Jim Lindsay. Thanks for listening.
Mentioned in the Podcast
Steven A. Cook and Martin S. Indyk, The Case for a New Strategic Pact between the United States and Saudi Arabia
Martin S. Indyk, master of the game: Henry Kissinger and the art of diplomacy in the Middle East