The new COVID variants “FLiRT” may lead to a slight increase in cases. Here’s how to fix them
COVID numbers are low, but some insights suggest they could be rising. Here’s how to do it yourself this summer, according to experts.
By Lauren J. Young
Allen J. Schaben/Los Angeles Times Getty Images
COVID infections in the U. S. have declined since last winter, but as seasonal activities resume and heat waves push more people to the Northern Hemisphere, public fitness experts are keeping an eye out for symptoms of a new surge in cases in the summer.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s wastewater surveillance program recently reported low degrees of viral activity, a combined measure of the presence of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID in samples from wastewater collection sites across the country. The wastewater treatment site could recommend a possible increased risk of infection in the community, which would be reflected in clinical cases four to six days later. )But that, too, may change: National levels reported on May 25 rose by about seven days. . percent compared to last week’s data collection period. Meanwhile, WastewaterSCAN, a separate wastewater dataset monitored by researchers at Stanford University and Emory University, says SARS-CoV-2 levels have risen and continued to rise over the past 21 days. Some states, especially Western ones, have reported even larger increases in COVID-related wastewater concentrations. California has noticed an increase in degrees since the beginning of May.
Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease physician and professor of medicine at the University of California, San Francisco, says he treated others with COVID at the hospital in May. “It hasn’t gone away,” he says. National rates of infection, hospitalization and mortality are low, but “not zero. “
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COVID-related summers have sometimes been less harsh than winter outbreaks. However, cases peaked in the summer in the Northern Hemisphere. These spikes have been linked to the emergence of new variants, waning immunity to vaccines, increased travel, and less social distancing. Fitness experts in the U. S. are expected to announce this week. The U. S. Department of Health and Human Services are expected to make a decision on a new fall vaccine that could help protect against new variants. “It’s pretty imminent to see a spike in cases this summer,” Chin-Hong says. Regardless of whether there is a genuine wave of COVID or not, “unfortunately, other people will get sick, and this is preventable. “
Scientific American spoke with public fitness experts about the prospects for COVID spread this summer, as well as viral variants and vaccines.
A new organization of Omicron variants dubbed “FLiRT” has temporarily begun circulating in the United States. The name refers to the amino acids involved in two new mutations in the virus’s spike protein: phenylalanine (F), leucine (L), arginine (R) and threonine (T). In December 2023, another Omicron variant, JN. 1, became dominant in the United States. And as of May 25, JN. 1 remains the most abundant variant detected in wastewater, appearing in 74% of samples. . Although JN. 1 is more prevalent, Omicron’s descendants of the new FLiRT organization, adding KP. 2, KP. 3, and KP. 1. 1, cause more infections. In March, FLiRT variants accounted for less than five percent of infections. On May 25, those variants accounted for more than 50 percent of infections, with KP. 2 alone responsible for 28. 5 percent of them. FLiRT variants “are coming in quite temporarily,” Chin-Hong says.
The so-called FLiRT is derived from mutations in express sites of the virus’s spike protein. These mutations in the spike protein could allow it to evade the immune formula to a greater extent than previous variants, which may also contribute to the increasing prevalence of KP. 2, says Ziyad Al. -Aly, a longtime COVID researcher and clinical epidemiologist at the University of Washington School of Medicine in St. John’s. On May 20, Japanese researchers published a paper in the Lancet Infectious Diseases suggesting that KP. 2 would also possibly be more transmissible. The study also showed that the existing vaccine based on the Omicron XBB. 1. 5 variant was less effective against KP. 2 than against JN. 1. However, it is unclear whether KP. 2 causes more or less severe disease than previous variants, Al-Aly “Anecdotally, at least in the U. S. “In the U. S. , I’m not seeing a huge increase in hospitalizations and emergency room visits, so it’s possibly not more pathogenic than the variant that came before,” he says. “But the knowledge doesn’t exist yet. This is still very new.
The fact that the virus continues to generate variants with “somewhat unexpected” tactics makes it more difficult for scientists to determine if or when COVID could establish itself in a seasonal trend similar to that of other respiratory diseases, Al-Aly says. Influenza, for example, is relatively expected in the Northern Hemisphere, with infections emerging in the winter and rates falling in the summer. Researchers also hope that upcoming dominant strains will be produced to expand vaccines that help strengthen people’s immunity before flu season begins. Al-Aly and Chin-Hong say, however, that it’s still too early to say whether COVID is going at the same pace.
The appearance of the extra KP. 2 indicates that “COVID has not yet figured out what it needs to be,” Al-Aly says. “Is it necessary to consider it as a seasonal winter virus? It continues to replace us, so I definitely think we’re not there yet.
COVID is also still deadlier than the flu, he says. Al-Aly and his team published a paper in JAMA on May 15 that compared the risk of death for others hospitalized with COVID to the risk for those hospitalized with the flu between October 2023 and March 2024. The study found that deaths due to COVID infections declined from last fall-winter 2022 to 2023, but were even worse than the flu: People hospitalized for COVID had about a 35% higher risk of death. “We expected that despite everything, COVID would be comparable to the flu, that it would be as deadly as the flu, no more, no less,” Al-Aly says. Still, “COVID is still a much bigger threat to human fitness than the flu, and the knowledge shows that very, very clearly. “
In April, the CDC reported about 2,000 COVID deaths in the United States. “There’s nothing to celebrate,” Chin-Hong says. I think the deaths will be close to zero. “
Versions of the COVID vaccines targeting the XBB. 1. 5 variant are available, and other people 65 and older or immunocompromised are eligible to receive an additional vaccine if they already won one in the fall of 2023. (Immunocompromised Americans wait to receive the additional vaccine dose for at least two months after the previous shot. People 65 and older who are not immunocompromised wait at least 4 months. )As of May 11, CDC surveys found that only 22. 5% of adults in the U. S. are vaccinated. U. S. patients reported receiving the most recent additional dose. This vaccine may be less effective than the new FLiRT variants, but it will likely still provide coverage against severe disease.
“People’s immunity now fades if they win [the vaccine] during the winter,” Chin-Hong says. A study published in the New England Journal of Medicine on May 29 showed that the XBB. 1. 5 vaccine achieved 52% efficacy against infection after 4 weeks. The study also showed that the vaccine was 67% effective in preventing hospitalizations after 4 weeks and 57% effective after 10 weeks.
Chin-Hong adds that at the beginning of last summer, the population’s immunity was much higher. “In addition to being inflamed, more people were vaccinated, so there was more hybrid immunity. Now we rely more on [the immunity opposed to] infection,” he says. On top of that, other people who contracted COVID over the winter likely developed immunity to JN. 1, but those same defenses might not work against KP. 2. “Since the new variant looks like a separate from what other people might have been exposed to and inflamed during the winter, you may not escape as easily,” he says.
Al-Aly says it will be vital to focus on improving the vaccination rate, especially to engage the public in COVID vaccines that are updated annually. The U. S. Food and Drug Administration’s vaccine advisory committee is expected to be a member of the U. S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The U. S. Department of Homeland Security has come up with a new formula: adding the tension it can cover, for this fall at a June 5 meeting.
Most people can get vaccinated through personal and government health insurance. The federally subsidized Bridge Access Program provides free vaccines to those without insurance, but ends in August. Local or state systems may still offer vaccines for free or at low cost, but Chin-Hong is encouraging others who are eligible to get an additional dose or who haven’t yet won one to get vaccinated now.
Treatments, including the antiviral drug Paxlovid, are also available and are effective tools for preventing severe cases of COVID, especially in older adults 65 and older and others at higher risk of hospitalization due to the disease. (Paxlovid can be prescribed at a low or no fee through the federally supported PAXCESS program. )
Chin-Hong also recommends wearing a mask and getting immediate COVID testing on travel and summer vacation. But vaccination is still very important for prevention. “Everyone I’ve noticed in the hospital,” he says, “the thread is not unusual when they were very poor health right now due to COVID is that they didn’t get the vaccine last year. “
Lauren J. Young is associate editor for fitness and medicine at Scientific American. He has edited and written articles addressing a wide variety of topics, including the COVID pandemic, emerging diseases, evolutionary biology, and fitness inequities. A decade of experience in science writing and journalism. Prior to joining Scientific American in 2023, she was an associate editor at Popular Science and a virtual producer on public radio’s Science Friday. She has guest-starred on radio shows, podcasts, and high-level events. Young has also spoken on panels at the Asian American Journalists Association, the American Library Association, the NOVA Science Studio and the New York Botanical Garden. His paintings have been published in Scholastic MATH, School Library Journal, IEEE Spectrum, Atlas Obscura, and Smithsonian Magazine. Young studied biology at California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, before pursuing a master’s degree in Science and Health.
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